COP29 - Insufficient Financial Advancements to Tackle the Climate Crisis

The curtain fell on COP29 on Sunday 24 November after two weeks of intense and challenging negotiations. Hosted by Azerbaijan, COP29 was marked by strong divides and tensions between developed and developing countries. Tasked to adopt a New Collective Quantified Goal on climate finance to support developing countries in their climate efforts, delegates agreed on mobilising at least USD 300 billion annually from developed countries, and at least USD 1.3 trillion annually from all financial actors, by 2035. While this agreement marks a step forward, it is still far from sufficient to meet the needs of developing countries which are facing the ever-growing impacts of climate change. Moreover, questions remain on how the ocean, our best ally in the fight against climate change, will benefit from this increase in climate finance. Focused on political issues, there were limited opportunities to advance the ocean-climate nexus in the negotiations and secure ocean language in text decisions. Yet, the ocean community remained active to ensure it stayed visible. 

Navigating political tensions and challenges

COP29 was marked by political tension and mounting challenges to global cooperation on climate action. The election of Donald Trump as U.S. President, just days before COP29, cast a shadow over the conference, as he vowed to dismantle climate policies and withdraw the world’s biggest historical emitter from the Paris Agreement. Adding further strain, Argentina’s right-wing president pulled its delegation from the conference, raising concerns that the country might follow the U.S. by leaving the Paris Agreement. This undermining of multilateralism set a difficult tone for COP29. In response, several countries reaffirmed their commitment to multilateralism – a call echoed in the G20 Leaders' Declaration released during the COP. 

Amid dire warnings about record-breaking global temperatures, the shadow of climate disinformation also loomed over the Conference. For instance, accounts on X/Twitter were created ahead of the Conference to enhance Azerbaijan’s image and influence debates. In that context, more than 90 organisations launched an open letter inviting governments worldwide to take immediate and decisive action to address this crisis. The UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres himself stressed the urgency of combating “coordinated disinformation campaigns impeding global progress on climate change”. This issue was also reflected at the G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro, where Brazil, alongside the UN and UNESCO, launched the “Global Initiative for Information Integrity on Climate Change” – the first multilateral effort to confront this critical challenge.

Beyond the disinformation campaigns, Azerbaijan’s presidency faced strong criticism for its lack of leadership on climate action. The situation was already tense, early November, when footage surfaced showing COP29’s Chief Executive Officer, Elnur Soltanov, leveraging his position to negotiate future oil and gas deals. President Ilham Aliyev then referred to fossil fuels as “a gift from God” as he welcomed delegates, raising concerns about the country’s commitment to addressing climate change. Furthermore, Parties deplored the lack of consultation and transparency from the COP Presidency which even led the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), among other motivations, to leave the negotiation room in protest last Saturday. Some countries, such as Nigeria and India, even blamed the Presidency for pushing the NCQG agreement without their consent, to the point of rejecting it. 

Divisions and Limited Progress: The Struggle of A New Goal on Climate Finance

Finance has consistently been one of the most divisive issues in international climate politics, as was evident at COP15 (2009) in Copenhagen – where Parties struggled to agree on the first climate finance goal to mobilise USD 100 billion per year from developed to developing countries by 2020. 

Similar to Copenhagen, Baku is likely to be remembered for the deep divisions and frustrations that dominated the negotiations. This time, Parties were expected to revise the USD 100 billion goal – which was only met once in 2022, two years later than expected. At COP29, the negotiations on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) centered around three key questions: what will be the amount? who will contribute? and who will be eligible? They were marked by a stark divide between developing countries, on one hand, and developed ones on the other. Developing nations fought to reach an annual climate finance target of USD 1.3 trillion, in line with recommendations from the Independent Expert Group on Climate Finance (IHLEG). Meanwhile, developed countries countered with a more modest amount of USD 200-300 billion, placing an emphasis on the diversification of financial sources and the revision of the pool of contributors. This was seen as an attempt to lighten their financial burden and a failure to live up to their historical obligation to address climate change and support developing countries.

Ultimately, Parties agreed on a goal of USD 300 billion annually by 2035, thereby tripling the previous target. While developed countries are still expected to “take the lead”, developing countries are also encouraged for the first time to contribute voluntarily. This could include countries such as China or Saudi Arabia, which already fund climate action in other developing countries but are not formally accounted for under the NCQG. In addition, the text calls on “all actors” to scale up funds from “all public and private sources” to at least USD 1.3 trillion by 2035. The deal faced strong criticism, including from developing countries which argued that the outcome was insufficient to address their needs, recalling that, behind the numbers, billions of lives are at stake. However, while the deal falls short, it marks a positive step forward in recognising, for the first time, the need to reach USD 1.3 trillion. At the closing plenary of the Conference, Simon Stiell, UNFCCC Executive Secretary, noted that the new goal lays the foundation for more ambitious efforts in the future, while emphasising the crucial importance to keep these promises. 

While Parties successfully responded to the more political questions, at a macro level, the process did not allocate significant time to unpacking ocean- or even nature-related climate finance. While this was due to the level of discussions, rather than a lack of prioritisation, it is crucial to ensure that these sectors receive their fair share of the increased finance moving forward. To achieve this, countries must integrate ocean-based measures and targets in their climate plans and strategies, clearly signalling their needs and priorities to direct climate finance effectively.

Major Setback on Energy Transition, but Some Progress Made on Mitigation and Adaptation

In parallel to the finance talks, Parties were expected to translate the conclusions of the Global Stocktake into concrete action, carrying forward the legacy of COP28. However, the Paris Agreement does not specify how it should be implemented, nor how it should inform the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), leaving COP29 to clarify these issues. Negotiations proved to be more challenging than anticipated, hindered by a clear lack of political will – especially on the issue of energy transition and the “transition away from fossil fuels”. Several Parties, including members of the Arab Group, such as Saudi Arabia, tried to roll back on this commitment. Ultimately, negotiations ended in deadlock and the decision was pushed to the next climate meetings, representing a significant setback in efforts to phase out fossil fuels.

These disagreements impacted the Mitigation Work Programme, established at COP26 to “urgently scale up mitigation ambition and implementation in this critical decade”. Despite progress during the two technical dialogues held earlier in the year, key political questions remained unresolved. The main point of contention was whether the work programme should address how to transition away from fossil fuels, or if this fell outside its mandate. After tumultuous debates, a diluted text was eventually adopted, omitting any reference to the Global Stocktake outcome or the 1.5° target. This weak political signal is particularly concerning, given that a failure to increase ambition in the next round of NDCs would put the world on course for a temperature increase of 2.6-3.1°C over the course of this century. On a more positive note, significant progress was made in mitigation efforts under other processes. Most notably, after nearly a decade of work, countries finally agreed on the final framework for how carbon markets will operate under the Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.

Although overshadowed by more divisive agenda items, COP29 also saw progress on adaptation, with the launch of the Baku Adaptation Roadmap and the establishment of the Baku high-level dialogue on adaptation intended to advance efforts under the Global Goal on Adaptation. Parties also reached an agreement on key technical aspects necessary for the operationalisation of the Global Goal on Adaptation, with a particular focus on indicators. Additionally, steps were undertaken to operationalise the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage, which will be able to start financing projects in 2025. As of 24 November, more than USD 730 million has been pledged – although it is worth noting that only Sweden, Australia and New Zealand made new pledges at COP29.

Keeping Momentum for Ocean Action Afloat

While the ocean was not a priority at COP29, with the Presidency showing little to no interest in any nature-related topic, the ocean community remained mobilised to ensure the ocean stayed visible. Ahead of the Conference, the Ocean & Climate Platform and several partners unveiled the policy brief “Unpacking Ocean Finance for Climate Action”, whose findings were presented during a dedicated event, highlighting several opportunities to unlock fundings under the UNFCCC for ocean-based climate solutions. Overall, more than 70 events were organised at the Ocean Pavilion throughout the two weeks. The mobilisation remained high until the very last days of COP29, when governments, NGOs, private sector entities, and representatives of Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities gathered to celebrate the Ocean & Coastal Zones Day on 21 November at the Marrakech Partnership Ocean Action Event. The event focused on the Ocean Breakthroughs, and was notably marked by the launch of the Coastal Tourism Breakthrough, which aims to mobilise at least USD 30 billion per year to support a nature-positive, net-zero and just transition of the sector by 2030. It also showcased progress in the other sectors that are marine conservation, offshore wind energy, shipping and aquatic foods. 

In line with conclusions of the 2024 Ocean and Climate Change Dialogue report, presented at COP29, the ocean community supported countries in integrating ocean-based measures in their national climate strategies – due February 2025. Practical instruments were developed, such as a guidance tool to integrate responsible offshore wind measures and another one on blue foods, alongside initiatives like the Mangrove Breakthrough NDC Taskforce. In this context, the need for more synergies across the climate and biodiversity regimes and strategies also gained strong momentum. The message was carried at the highest level with the launch of the “Rio Trio Initiative”, an unprecedented collaboration aimed at fostering global sustainability efforts by aligning the work of the presidencies of this year’s COP of the UN Conventions on Climate Change (Azerbaijan),  on Biological Diversity (Colombia), and to Combat Desertification (Saudi Arabia). Synergies were also the focus of various COP29 events, including one dedicated to the policy brief “Blue Thread: Aligning National Climate and Biodiversity Strategies”.

Despite limited opportunities to advance the ocean-climate nexus within the negotiations and secure specific ocean language in decision texts, Parties expressed strong interest in advancing ocean-based climate action. On the final day of the conference, members of the Friends of the Ocean and Climate group reaffirmed their “steadfast commitment to promoting the ocean-climate nexus at the UN Climate Change Conferences and utilizing sustainable ocean-based mitigation and adaptation actions”. However, more work is needed to fully integrate the ocean and its solutions into future discussions, including on the delivery of climate finance, the revision of NDCs and National Adaptation Plans, or even the selection of relevant ocean indicators under the Global Goal on Adaptation. Brazil, which demonstrated a clear interest in ocean issues at COP29 and included ocean-based measures in its revised NDC, will play a crucial role as COP30 Presidency in ensuring its full consideration.

While insufficient to address the needs of developing countries, the NCQG sets a first step in the right direction. The “Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T” will help build political momentum on the road to COP30 in Belém, Brazil. A strong leadership from the Brazilian Presidency is needed to drive ambitious national strategies, in line with the conclusions of the Global Stocktake, and to support the delivery of this new climate finance goal. The Presidency has already expressed its intention to make COP30 a “Nature COP”, emphasising synergies between the Climate and Biodiversity Conventions. In this context, Brazil’s increasing focus on ocean-related issues sends a powerful signal ensuring that nature, at COP30, is also blue. The next UN Ocean Conference (9-13 June 2025, Nice) can be a milestone to weave a blue thread from COP29 to COP30. President Macron of France, co-host of UNOC 3 and President Lula of Brazil recently pledged to make the protection of the ocean and its ecosystems a strategic priority of their international climate and biodiversity commitments in a common declaration. This declaration brings hope that COP30, celebrating the 10th year anniversary of the Paris Agreement, can be a turning point for ocean action.

This article was originally published on the website of the Ocean & Climate Platform.