COVID-19, A different kind of War

No one could have predicted that the start of 2020 would bring with it one of the greatest global crises in recent history. Phrases such as ‘pandemic’, ‘flattening the curve’, ‘social isolation’ are not part of our collective vernacular. Globally we are facing one of the greatest challenges of a generation, a virus that cuts across socio economic divides and does not discriminate, like its human hosts do, across ethnicity, religion or skin colour. 

As the medical professionals and bureaucrats battle to contain COVID-19, we know very little about what life will be like on the other side. Signs are it will be drastically different. I was a child during the Balkan civil wars and remember clearly how everyone used to say, with conviction, ‘when this is over we will get back to our old lives’. This is not the current discourse. The unholy alliance of a pandemic, rising nationalism and accelerating climate change can, at its most extreme, boil into a damaging trifecta impacting the global order, collapse of trust in those that govern us and a loss of decades of benefits that globalisation had delivered.

When the health crisis abates, we may find ourselves in a new world. Until then, as the Spanish Minister of Foreign Affairs recently declared ‘this is a time for citizenship’. The pandemic is highlighting the interconnectedness of the human race, and bringing afloat complex political and economic dependencies, threatening collapse of some of the largest commercial empires - airlines, retail giants, hospitality icons and tourism hotspots. According to World Heath Organisation, the fear, panic and terror caused by the spread of the virus, amplified by media, is delivering far reaching consequences in human behaviour. The humankind is entering a humanitarian ‘fourth revolution’, with the likely profound impacts on our political, legal, economic but, perhaps most importantly, our traditional value systems.    

Working in one of the most stable banking systems in the world, I have nevertheless seen the direct result of the necessary measures used to battle the virus. Micro, small and medium businesses are often the backbone of global economies and employ up to 70% of the workers in any given country. Today, a material proportion face a reality where they have limited working capital, rapidly diminishing revenues and are forced to make emotionally charged decisions on letting go of their loyal, long term employees. The dark underbelly of this situation is the number of jobs that will be lost and long-term impacts of this on families, relationships and mental health – the socioeconomic impacts may indeed be astronomical. Whilst we, in Australia, have the benefit of a strong economy and stable democratic institutions to help soften the fall, it is not inconceivable that in addition to the failed businesses, airlines and industries in the post COVID-19 world, we may also see some failed states. 

Other ways in which the new world will break with its past may include a shift to local value chains, acceleration of digital where we sleep, work and play online, universal healthcare becoming a norm, loss of wholesale trust across communities, decimated tourism industries where travel becomes a luxury for middle classes whilst the low-income groups rebuild their lives and nest eggs. Risk management is likely to become a core activity in any entity, small or large. Unemployment benefits may need to be redefined as the crisis impacts large swath of people regardless of their skills, qualifications or work ethic. Government support for small to medium size businesses may necessitate a different treatment in terms of taxation, red tape and exceedingly complex industrial relations policies.

After any period of crisis there is a strong desire for renewal, rebirth and regeneration. Quality of leadership and investment in human capital will be key in ensuring that societies stay calm and strong, demonstrate empathy, think long term and deliver egalitarian economic and health outcomes for its citizens.  As Dieter Uchtdorf once wisely said “its your reaction to adversity, not the adversity itself, that determines how your life story will develop”.

Remembering the wartime bombs of my childhood, I used to be comforted by thoughts of going back to the old way of life. This time, as all the nations across the world battle this different,  invisible enemy and are in the process rewriting global norms and standards, it is safe to say that nothing may be the same and that the old way of life may just be a memory, a historical footnote, but also a source of valuable lessons for the century ahead.