Covid-19 Numbers and Trajectory
Right now, everything is speculation and in a few months we will have perfect hindsight. My hope an prayer is that this graph is correct. Until then we have to prepare as if the graph may continue climbing. However, we may calm ourselves by considering the tiny amount of data available and try to forecast our productivity and sales. Here are some things I have pulled from the data:
- Most countries are reporting cases in exact proportion with the number of tests at their disposal
- The latest statistics seem to indicate that Italy may peak where China has.
- It is impossible to know the infection rate of the entire population of any country without two things: Knowing the exact moment the virus began, and testing the entire population throughout the outbreak
- We simply do not know who has had it before and to what extent. How many cases were chalked up to an unknown flu or pneumonia simply by an xray? No pathogen tests were available
- Viruses do not watch the news, so it is impossible for them to all peak in different countries at the same rate, however it is possible for the decline to follow the same path from a much higher untested peak and for each graph to match a slop just under the amount of tests performed. See the graph
