COVID-19 - The Hardest Part

The mood in some countries seems to shift daily. Official notices and reporting in Thailand have been mostly low key and unflustered. At this stage, a comforting reassurance prevails. Realizing that misleading information can lead to panic and that both could have enervating effects on the national psyche, authorities have opted for messages exuding a composure that seems to fly in the face of the latest news from countries like Korea and Italy. So how much can we trust such information? That is the hardest part.

Nobody can say for sure if the current outbreak is the plague we have been promised and warned about - a global problem, like the deadly Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, that infected about one-third of the world’s population and killed anywhere between 20-50 million people. If this is a pandemic like that, particularly given the casually itinerant nature of today’s populace, it could theoretically claim hundreds of millions of victims.

Fear and uncertainty are causing most of the reactions – some verging on panic. The totality of action across the spectrum of government departments, health professionals, the WHO, event organizers, tour operators, airlines, and individual businesses, has been clumsy and confusing. That in itself is a huge problem, from which we will learn.

Corporate media adds to the confusion. The appetite for alarmist headlines is an obsession, irrespective of the topic. Putting things into perspective, by publishing pertinent and accurate data, is no longer seen to be their most seminal role in a world where profit is king. Actually sensationalism, infused with conflicting information and the wildest of misinterpretations, is in itself a contagion (within the neoliberal context) for which we have not yet found a cure.

The hardest part is trying to find pertinent and precise information, putting all of it into valid perspectives, prior to responding strategically, with just the right amount of insight, as well as sensibly, with just the right amount of caution. In some ways panic could be a worse outcome than the pandemic itself – peremptorily curtailing travel, shutting down all types of production, and impacting the supply chains of essential drugs, surgical masks, food, and water.

Indeed, without due care and coordination, the surfeit of inconsistent public health warnings and travel advisory messages we are currently subject to through various channels aimed, no doubt, at jolting people out of their usual complacency, can all too readily add to the sense of dread that seems to be building steadily.

How is one expected to gauge the reality and scale of the emergency with all of the deceptive data taking so much air time? Because of various postponements and cancellations throwing my schedule for the coming months into disarray, I am at home in my village enjoying a quiet time to write and recharge. I feel anxious yet impatient. Should I be concerned, as isolated as we are from the nearest city? Should I fly down to Bangkok, as some are suggesting, in order to stock up on indispensable medicines? How long is any lockdown likely to last? How close are we to discovering a vaccine?

Much of our anxiety from questions like these borders on the irrational. Yet it is still sufficiently corrosive as to disrupt the routines of ordinary people in the most extraordinary manner. In several countries, towns are being put on immediate lockdown, curfews are being imposed, public gatherings banned, sports events held behind closed doors, and schools are closed.

Local businesses that rely on tourism are already reeling and many will go out of business for good. The impact on international travel, as well as all forms of production, could potentially become devastating. In addition, fears of an uncontainable pandemic, amplified by incorrect information and gossip, is causing trust in public institutions to erode still further.

What can we conclude and how should we act when the intensity and force of fear become a far greater threat than any virus?

We should avoid being reckless or unduly cavalier, of course. Conducting business-as-usual is out of the question. On the other hand, scientists all over the world are racing to find a vaccine as early as late April or May. We already know that a cocktail of flu and anti-viral shots seem to work in many cases. And, as yet, there is no need to change our entire way of life because a few people have been infected.

To put things into perspective. Tens of thousands die each year from severe seasonal flu. The COVID-19 virus, however, seems to be more contagious than most forms of flu. Each person with the virus appears to infect 2.2 other people. However, even that information is not totally accurate owing to the early mismanagement of the outbreak in Wuhan.

So far, the death rate is thought to be around 1.4% of those infected – around 2,867 people from 83,861 diagnosed infections. This might be lower eventually when we are able to factor in those mild or symptom-free cases that remain undetected.

Naturally, even a low death rate can take its toll if the number of infections escalates globally. This past week, for the first time, the number of new infections outside China were greater than those in China. That is certainly an ominous sign it will still take months to bring this virus under control.