Create the future. Don't waste your time predicting it

It's that time again. Everyone loves to make predictions and almost everyone is bad at it. Not only are we enchanted by our own forecasts, but people in all fields — journalism, politics, tech, marketing — make a nice living off fawning over the future, pretending to know which gadgets will sweep the next decade and whether the economy will recover and when. But a 2011 survey of morning talk shows came to the remarkable conclusion that the pundits featured were no more accurate than a coin toss. The realization that most predictions fail has been elaborated upon in Nate Silver’s book, The Signal and the Noise, and has even inspired Philip E. Tetlock, psychology professor at the University of Pennsylvania, to launch a project seeking to improve punditry’s abysmal record.

Peter F. Drucker once proclaimed, "The best way to predict the future is to create it."

He also described the 7 sources of opportunity

1. The Unexpected
2. Industry and Market Disparities
3. Process Vulnerabilities/Process Needs
4. Incongruities
5. Demographic Shifts
6. Changes in Perception
7. New Knowledge

At least you have some runway before the next demographic shift happens. Are your kids married yet? Do they want to have children? 11,700 Americans will turn 65 today.

Entrepreneurs live in times of volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous conditions.

Wil 2025 be the year of bird flu? The Biden administration, in a final push to shore up the nation’s pandemic preparedness before President-elect Donald J. Trump takes office, announced on Thursday that it would nearly double the amount of money it was committing to ward off a potential outbreak of bird flu in humans.

What about the threats and opportunities of AI? Suppose the Journal of AI Medicine was published once a year? What would be the lead article? Remember, the iPhone was launched Jan 9th, 2007. Could anyone have predicted its impact 18 years later? It is too late to stop the AI arms race.

Will there be a MAGApocalypse?

You can shape your future by focusing on what you can control, such as setting goals, adapting to challenges, and learning from experiences. While we can't control everything, our response to the world around us and the vision we hold for the future helps set the course for where we go.

So:

1. Focus on what you can control
2. 'Plans are worthless, but planning is essential"-Eisenhower
3. Innovation starts with mindset, so change yours
4. Strategic thinking is different from strategic planning
5. Explore and exploit your business model
6. Join the GSD Club
7. Practice negative entrepreneurial thinking
8. Reset your values
9. Think big, start small, stay small
10. Measure your progress by the enemies you make

Here are more ways take charge of your future:

1. Build a purposeful career.

2. Have the difficult conversations at work. You can do it without upsetting people.

3. You can be yourself without oversharing. Know when to self-disclose — and when not to.

4. Want to get better at making decisions? Review your past ones.

5. The middle of your career is not a point of diminishing returns. It’s an opportunity.

6. Win over skeptics by collaborating with them.

7. Evaluate new roles for their learning potential.

8. When your usual options aren’t working, it pays to create new ones.

9. To alleviate burnout, learn to identify its root causes.

10. All profits are not created equal.

The retrospectoscope is always 20/20. Sometimes what you use to look forward has to be recalled.

A much easier way is to flip a coin and just leave your future to fate. After all, every decision is a bet.

Arlen Meyers, MD, MBA is the President and CEO of the Society of Physician Entrepreneurs on Substack