The Current Situation in Russia and Ukraine and Its Impact on Global Politics

The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been a major source of tension and instability in the region and beyond. The dispute over the status of Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, and the separatist movements in the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, which are supported by Russia, have resulted in a violent and protracted war that has claimed thousands of lives and displaced millions of people. The conflict has also triggered a series of sanctions and countersanctions between Russia and the West, as well as a deterioration of diplomatic and security relations. 

The eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk are important for both Ukraine and Russia, as they have historical, cultural, economic, and strategic significance. For Ukraine, these provinces are part of its sovereign territory and its national identity, as they are home to millions of Ukrainian citizens, many of whom are bilingual and bicultural and who have contributed to the country's development and diversity. These provinces are also rich in natural resources, such as coal, iron, steel, and agriculture, and they account for a significant share of Ukraine's industrial output and exports. Moreover, these provinces are vital for Ukraine's security and stability, as they border Russia and have a potential role in the resolution of the conflict and the restoration of peace and cooperation in the region. For Russia, these provinces are also of interest and influence, as they have historical and cultural ties with Russia, dating back to the Soviet era and the Russian Empire, and as they host a large Russian-speaking and ethnic Russian population, which Russia claims to protect and represent. These provinces are also important for Russia's economic and strategic interests, as they are part of its sphere of influence and its leverage over Ukraine and the West, and as they provide access and transit to the Black Sea and the Mediterranean regions. Furthermore, these provinces are also instrumental for Russia's domestic and international agenda, as they serve as a source of propaganda and mobilization for its nationalist and anti-Western rhetoric and policies. 

It is essential to recognize the profound and complex effects the Russia-Ukraine conflict has on international relations. On one hand, it has exposed the limits and challenges of the international order and the norms and institutions that underpin it, such as the United Nations, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, and the International Court of Justice. On the other hand, it has also stimulated new forms of cooperation and dialogue among various actors, such as the Normandy format, which is a diplomatic group consisting of the leaders of France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine, that aims to facilitate the resolution of the conflict and the implementation of the Minsk agreements. The Minsk agreement is a set of measures that was signed in February 2015 by the leaders of France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine, with the aim of ending the war in eastern Ukraine and restoring peace and stability in the region. The agreement, which was mediated by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, includes provisions such as a ceasefire, a withdrawal of heavy weapons, a release of prisoners, a restoration of Ukrainian control over its border, a constitutional reform that grants special status to the separatist regions, and a local election in accordance with Ukrainian law. The Minsk agreement is widely seen as the only viable framework for resolving the conflict, but its implementation has been slow and incomplete, due to the lack of trust and political will among the parties, as well as the ongoing violations of the ceasefire and the humanitarian crisis in the area.  

The conflict has also reshaped the geopolitical landscape and the balance of power in Europe and beyond, as it has prompted both sides to seek new alliances and partnerships, as well as to enhance their military and economic capabilities. For example, Ukraine has signed an Association Agreement and a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area with the EU, as well as a Strategic Partnership Agreement with the US, while also pursuing closer ties with NATO and other regional organizations, such as the Visegrad Group and the Baltic States. Ukraine has also increased its defense spending and modernized its armed forces, with the goal of achieving full interoperability with NATO by 2020. Russia, on the other hand, has strengthened its strategic partnership with China, as well as its cooperation with other emerging powers, such as India, Brazil, and South Africa, under the framework of the BRICS group. Russia has also expanded its military presence and influence in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, as well as in the Arctic and the Pacific regions. Moreover, Russia has developed new and advanced weapons systems, such as hypersonic missiles and nuclear-powered submarines, that pose a challenge to the existing deterrence and security architecture in Europe. 

The role of external actors in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is crucial and complex. On one side, the United States and the European Union have been the main supporters of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as its political and economic reforms. They have provided diplomatic, financial, and military assistance to Ukraine, such as the $1.5 billion loan guarantee from the US in 2015, the €15 billion aid package from the EU in 2014, and the supply of lethal and non-lethal weapons, training, and intelligence from both. They have also imposed sanctions on Russia for its actions, targeting its energy, financial, and defense sectors, as well as individuals and entities involved in the annexation of Crimea and the destabilization of eastern Ukraine. On the other side, China and Turkey have been more ambivalent and pragmatic in their approach, as they have maintained cordial relations with both parties and pursued their own interests in the region. For instance, China has invested in both countries' infrastructure and energy sectors, such as the $3.6 billion high-speed railway project in Ukraine and the $400 billion natural gas deal with Russia. Turkey has sought to balance its NATO commitments with its cultural and historical ties with Crimea's Tatar population, which has faced persecution and discrimination under Russian rule. Turkey has also supported Ukraine's defense industry and naval capabilities, as well as facilitated humanitarian and trade links with Crimea. Other actors, such as Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Iran, have also played a role in the conflict, either as mediators, facilitators, or spoilers. Belarus has hosted the Minsk talks and offered its territory as a buffer zone, while Kazakhstan has tried to bridge the gap between Russia and the West, as well as to protect its own economic and security interests in the region. Iran has been accused of supplying weapons and fighters to the separatists, as well as of using the conflict as a bargaining chip in its nuclear negotiations with the West. 

Crimea Annexation by Russia 

The annexation of Crimea by Russia in March 2014 was a unilateral and illegal act that violated Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as several international treaties and agreements, such as the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, the 1997 Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership, and the 2003 Agreement on the Status and Conditions of the Black Sea Fleet. The annexation followed a disputed referendum that was held in Crimea on March 16, 2014, in which most of the voters allegedly supported joining Russia. However, the referendum was widely condemned as illegitimate and fraudulent by the international community, as it was held under the presence and pressure of Russian troops, without the consent of the Ukrainian government, and without the participation of the Crimean Tatars and other ethnic minorities. The annexation also triggered a series of negative consequences for the region and the world, such as the displacement of over 40,000 people, mostly Crimean Tatars, the deterioration of human rights and the rule of law, the militarization of the peninsula and the Black Sea, the disruption of trade and energy flows, and the escalation of tensions and conflicts in the area. 

Black Sea importance 

The Black Sea is a strategic and economic region that connects Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, and that hosts several key actors and interests, such as NATO, the EU, Russia, Turkey, and China. The Black Sea is also the main source of water, energy, and transportation for the countries that border it, such as Ukraine, Georgia, Romania, Bulgaria, and Moldova. The Black Sea region has been affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict in several ways, such as: 

The annexation of Crimea by Russia has given it full control over the Crimean Peninsula and its ports, as well as access to the Kerch Strait, which links the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, where Ukraine has significant maritime and economic interests. Russia has also deployed its Black Sea Fleet and its air and land forces in Crimea, as well as built a bridge across the Kerch Strait, which has enabled it to project its power and influence in the region and to restrict the freedom of navigation and access of other countries, especially Ukraine. 

The war in eastern Ukraine has also affected the security and stability of the Black Sea region, as it has increased the risk of military clashes and incidents, as well as the proliferation of weapons and fighters, in the area. For example, in November 2018, Russia seized three Ukrainian naval vessels and their crews near the Kerch Strait, which sparked a diplomatic and security crisis and prompted NATO and the EU to increase their support and presence in the region. Moreover, the conflict has also fueled the separatist movements and the ethnic tensions in other countries, such as Georgia and Moldova, which have their own unresolved territorial disputes with Russia and its proxies. 

The conflict has also impacted the economic and environmental aspects of the Black Sea region, as it has disrupted the trade and energy flows and the cooperation and integration among the countries in the area. For instance, the conflict has reduced the volume and the value of the trade and the transit between Ukraine and Russia, as well as between Ukraine and other countries that depend on the Russian market, such as Turkey and Bulgaria. The conflict has also affected the energy sector, as it has hampered the exploration and the exploitation of the oil and gas resources in the Black Sea shelf, as well as the diversification and the security of the energy supply and the transit routes in the region. Furthermore, the conflict has also posed a threat to the environmental and the ecological balance of the Black Sea, as it has increased the pollution and the degradation of the water and the marine life, due to the military activities and the lack of cooperation and regulation in the area. 

Artic Region 

The Arctic region is the area around the North Pole, which covers about 14.5 million square kilometers of land and sea. The Arctic region includes parts of eight countries: Canada, Denmark (Greenland), Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the United States (Alaska). The Arctic region is home to about four million people, who belong to different indigenous and non-indigenous groups, such as the Inuit, the Sami, the Nenets, and the Russians. The Arctic region is also rich in biodiversity and natural resources, such as fish, wildlife, oil, gas, and minerals. The Arctic region is also affected by climate change and global warming, which cause the melting of the ice and the permafrost, the rising of the sea level, and the changing of the weather and the ecosystems. 

Pacific Region 

The Pacific region is the area that covers the Pacific Ocean and its islands, as well as the lands that border it. The Pacific Ocean is the largest and deepest ocean in the world, covering about 165 million square kilometers and accounting for about one-third of the Earth's surface. The Pacific Ocean has several sub-regions, such as the North Pacific, the South Pacific, the East Pacific, and the West Pacific, which have different climates, currents, and ecosystems. The Pacific Ocean is also home to many islands, such as the Polynesian, Micronesian, and Melanesian islands, which have diverse cultures, languages, and histories. The Pacific Ocean is also surrounded by several continents and countries, such as Asia, Australia, North America, and South America, which have various political, economic, and security interests and interactions in the region. Some of the major countries that border the Pacific Ocean are China, Japan, Russia, the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, and Chile. The Pacific region is also rich in natural resources, such as fish, oil, gas, minerals, and tourism, as well as in strategic and maritime routes, such as the Malacca Strait, the Panama Canal, and the Bering Strait, which connect the Pacific with other oceans and regions. 

Significance of the Arctic and Pacific for Russia 

Russia has increased its military presence and activities in the Arctic and Pacific regions, taking advantage of their economic and strategic potential. The Arctic region offers Russia access to abundant natural resources, such as oil, gas, minerals, and fish, which are vital for its energy security and economic development. The Arctic region also opens new opportunities for trade and transportation, as the melting of the ice creates navigable routes, such as the Northern Sea Route, which connects Europe and Asia through the Arctic Ocean. To protect and assert its interests in the Arctic, Russia has deployed a range of military assets, such as nuclear-powered icebreakers, submarines, and missiles, which enhance its capabilities and deterrence against competing claims from other countries, such as the US and Canada, which also have territorial and maritime claims in the region. 

In the Pacific region, Russia maintains and strengthens its strategic partnership with China, which is its largest trading partner and its main ally in the region. Russia and China share common interests and views on regional and global issues, such as opposing US hegemony and promoting multipolarity and multilateralism. By cooperating with China on economic, political, and security matters, Russia gains leverage and influence in the Pacific region, where the US and its allies have a dominant presence and role. Russia also engages with other countries and organizations in the Pacific region, such as Japan, Korea, Vietnam, and ASEAN, to foster diplomatic and economic relations, as well as to expand its market and investment opportunities. Furthermore, Russia enhances its military posture and readiness in the Pacific region, by developing and deploying advanced weapons systems, such as hypersonic missiles and nuclear-powered submarines, and by conducting joint exercises and drills with Chinese forces, which demonstrate its power and capabilities in the region. 

This overview highlights the importance and relevance of the Arctic and Pacific regions for Russia's national interests and global aspirations. These regions are rich in natural resources and strategic locations, which enable Russia to access and exploit them for its benefit and advantage. These regions are also the arenas of geopolitical competition and cooperation, where Russia interacts and contends with other major powers, such as the US and China, on various issues and challenges, such as environmental protection, trade, and security. The Arctic Council and APEC are two important platforms in the Arctic and Pacific regions, respectively, that facilitate dialogue and cooperation among the countries and stakeholders in the regions, on matters of common concern and mutual interest. 

In conclusion, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon that has profound and lasting implications for the region and the world. The conflict challenges the international order and the norms and values that sustain it, such as sovereignty, territorial integrity, human rights, and the rule of law. The conflict also reshapes the geopolitical landscape and the balance of power in Europe and beyond, as it prompts both sides to seek new alliances and partnerships, as well as to enhance their military and economic capabilities. The role of external actors in the conflict is crucial and complex, as they have different interests and agendas in the region, and as they provide various forms of support and assistance to the parties. The conflict also affects the security and stability of other regions, such as the Black Sea, the Arctic, and the Pacific, where Russia has increased its presence and activities, taking advantage of their economic and strategic potential. The conflict requires a comprehensive and inclusive solution that addresses the root causes and the consequences of the crisis, and that respects the rights and aspirations of the people involved. The Minsk agreement is the only viable framework for resolving the conflict, but it needs to be fully implemented and monitored by the parties and the international community. The conflict also calls for a constructive and cooperative dialogue and engagement among the countries and the stakeholders in the region and the world, to foster trust and confidence, and to prevent further escalation and violence.