Cut Now? Later? Not At All?
The beginning of the week brought ominous economic and financial news. By midweek, some of the gloom was fading, but the brief dip does bring up a major question: When should leaders start preparing organizations for an economic downturn
1) Time to Pull Back?
It didn’t take much for worries about a recession to come roaring back—just a pessimistic US jobs report and one very ugly day in the world’s financial markets. It was only a matter of time, it seemed, before leaders would announce a wave of cost cutting and reorganizations
To be sure, there are plenty of signs of an economic slowdown, or at least a lack of growth. According to FactSet data, S&P 500 companies grew their revenue by 5.3% in the second quarter, which is significantly below the five-year average of 6.9%. Over the past three months, the number of new jobs in the US has declined, while the unemployment rate, now 4.3%, has risen to nearly a full percentage point above its post-pandemic low. Hiring experts have said that the economy has been in a “white-collar” recession for a while, wherein companies have been hesitant to fill professional roles unless it is absolutely necessary.
But many leaders have already accounted for this slowdown.
2) 5 Ways to Keep Your Boss Happy
The recent news on job hiring, combined with tough news from Wall Street, has made it very clear to many workers: This isn’t the time to switch jobs.
But staying put isn’t just a matter of keeping your head down, experts say. Now is the time to make sure you are working well with your manager
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3) The Summer of Distraction
Corporate leaders have always worried about distractions—whether for consumers shopping, clients making business deals, or people working from home or the office. But experts say that the news lately has been overwhelming.
This week alone, the stock market seemed headed for a crash before recovering somewhat. That was on top of earlier news about a sitting US president deciding not to run for reelection, his predecessor surviving an assassination attempt, and constant updates on two wars. Even the Olympics have been a distraction, reportedly costing firms billions of dollars because of workers and consumers who are glued to TV or other screens.
Leaders are now concerned that the year’s second half will be subject to even more distractions. Even before July’s weak jobs report sent markets into a tailspin, several large retailers cited the negative news cycle as a key factor in a decline in both consumer spending and estimated sales and profits.
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Briefings Podcast: Eye for a Star - The world’s star athletes are in Paris, but corporate stars seem more elusive. Two experts scrutinize the dearth of star performers within organizations.
Check out Briefings, our bimonthly national magazine, for in-depth and unusual looks at critical leadership issues.
Ground handling assistant at Menzies Aviation
7moThanks for sharing
Team Manager, Financial Analyst @ Financial Sector, Banks | Master's in Economics, Banking Strategy, M&A, Cross-Border Transactions, Corporate Banking, Risk Assessment Expert
7moWe are talking about a "white collar job"—a person who performs professional, clerical, managerial or administrative work—as defined by well-known publications. U.S. deal activity rose 130% from February to $288 billion. Experts ask: What happened to growing organically? Worldwide M&A activity grew 56% through February to $453 billion. However, according to FactSet data, S&P 500 companies grew their revenue by 5.3% in the second quarter, which is significantly below the five-year average of 6.9%. This means not only that the economy has been in a white-collar recession for some time now—where companies are hesitant to fill professional vacancies unless absolutely necessary—but also that the "white-collar workforce" operates differently than it did before 2022, with fewer effective M&A deals. The COVID pandemic has also brought its own changes. There is another component why the efficiency of M&A transactions is lower — "return to office" (RTO). Only 7% of chief executives go to the office every day, according to a new study of more than 500 UK CEOs, writes Orianna Rosa Royle. That’s compared to 64% of workers making less than $38,000 a year who are expected to go to the office five days a week.
Supply Chain | NPI | Projects | USAF Veteran
7moThink there’s too much faith in the presence of rational thinking or actual understanding of whatever it is investors dismiss or praise. What are the heuristics? How supply chain leaders respond or don’t, for example, is partly a leadership ability. They can’t know everything and that’s why they have a team. Hopefully they all work together
Product Designer at DESIGN ORGANISATION
7moVisual story expresses too tall & step but may crack & crush soon,focus ,clarity & objective. Hope I'm not too imaginative. 🎷
OK Boštjan Dolinšek