Cyclone Mocha to Intensify into Cyclonic Storm, Bringing Heavy Rain to Andaman, Odisha

The meteorological community was initially intrigued by the uncommon stir of Cyclone Mocha, but now the focus has shifted to its potential ramifications as it gains strength over the Bay of Bengal.

Yemen proposed the name "Mocha" for the storm, inspired by the Yemeni city that has long been renowned for its coffee industry. In fact, the famous Mocha coffee is named after the city's port. The latest projections suggest that the system could intensify into a fully-fledged cyclonic storm within the next 48 hours.

According to the India Meteorological Department, the circulation strengthened into a low-pressure system over the Southeast Bay of Bengal bordering the Andaman Sea at around 8.30 a.m. today (May 8). According to preliminary estimates, the storm will rapidly increase, becoming a depression by Tuesday (May 9) and then a cyclonic storm by Wednesday (May 10).

When a summer cyclone begins to form over the Bay of Bengal, the eastern coastal states of India become nervous. The locals' collective recollections are still tinged with Cyclone Fani, Amphan, and Asani. However, cyclone Mocha is less expected to make landfall over the Indian Coast, according to preliminary estimates.

The low-pressure area is approaching the central Bay of Bengal from the north. The GFS and ECMWF models from IMD predict an early north-westward track, followed by a strong recurve north-eastward towards the coasts of Bangladesh and Myanmar. The ECMWF track, on the other hand, has pushed more westward than earlier estimates of the system's path.

Meanwhile, the NCUM group of models predicted that it would move closer to the coast of Tamil Nadu before re-emerging in the southeast and bordering the east-central Arabian Sea.

The system, however, will most likely move northward and make landfall in Myanmar, according to IMD. However, the different courses and strengths predicted by several cyclone models have created a great deal of ambiguity in Mocha's conduct.

Because of the storm's vicinity, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands would bear the brunt of its impact, followed by some states along our East Coast. According to the IMD, most locations will see moderate rainfall from May 8 to May 12.

The Andaman region has already experienced sporadic periods of heavy to very high rainfall (64.5 mm to 204.5 mm), which is expected to continue on May 8, 9, and 12. Then, as the storm forms around Wednesday and Thursday (May 10-11), IMD predicts a barrage of high winds (80 km) accompanied by very heavy to extremely heavy rains (204.5 mm) to pound the islands.