Damage to South Sudan's Oil Pipeline: The Prospect of State Collapse and Nationwide Violence

In February, the Sudanese Bashayer Pipeline Company reported a loss of pressure in the pipeline that runs from South Sudan’s Upper Nile State to Port Sudan. This pipeline transports South Sudan’s oil to international markets and was damaged in Sudan’s White Nile State – an area under the control of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. The incident has prompted the Dar Petroleum Oil Company to suspend its loadings.

South Sudan’s oil exports had already been threatened by the ongoing war in neighbouring Sudan. Damage from shelling to Sudan’s principal oil refinery had dropped crude exports (including South Sudanese exports) from an average of 120,000 barrels per day in 2023 to 75,000 bpd in February. The war has thus far prevented a team of technical experts from being able to fix the pipeline. If disruption to exports persists, it raises concerns South Sudan may be on the verge of collapse.

The Importance of Oil to South Sudan

Disruption to oil exports is critical to the government due to its failure to diversify its economy. Revenues generated through oil accounted for 90% of state revenue according to a 2022 World Bank study.

Though ordinary people receive little financial reward from the oil, it remains essential to the functioning of the state. The revenue generated pays international oil companies and historic debts to Sudan, while also going to the office of the president, Salva Kiir. This is then distributed across his extensive patronage network.

Disruption to oil exports can also accelerate the depreciation of the South Sudanese pound, which fell 11% against the US dollar in February 2024 alone. This exacerbates existing poverty and violence that are endemic in South Sudan.

Nationwide Violence

Much of South Sudan is already gripped by a number of armed conflicts; it is ranked 160 out of 163 nations in the IEP’s 2023 Global Peace Index. Many conflicts in the country are not explicitly connected, though they are generally all underpinned by the same factors. This includes tribal and pastoralist disputes driven by the control of land and natural resources.

South Sudan has witnessed persistent violence since independence in 2011. However, in recent months the situation has deteriorated. In Q4 2023, there was a 35% increase in violent incidents from the previous quarter, leading to 406 deaths. A UN Commission on Human Rights report released last month documented “persistent armed conflict, violence and human rights abuses characterised by killings, sexual violence and abductions”.

In recent months the deterioration has been particularly acute in Abyei and Warrap State. Tensions over the location of the administrative boundary, land grazing rights and overcrowding have all driven conflict. On 28 January, 52 people were killed in an attack in Abyei after a raid from a group in Warrap State – the deadliest attack in the region since 2021. A further attack in the region the following week led to 37 deaths in southern Abyei. The absence of state authority in the region has induced the mobilisation of local ethnic militias, particularly among rival factions of the Dinka ethnic group.

Additionally, violence remains endemic across Lakes and Western Bar el Ghazal states. In the first week of February 2024 alone, over 150 people were killed in separate conflicts nationwide. There are now plausible fears that deteriorating economic conditions accelerated by disruption to oil revenues may aggravate violence further. This brings the spectre of total state collapse.

Prospect of State Collapse

Fears of escalating violence are so worrying owing to the existing humanitarian situation in South Sudan. Approximately two-thirds of South Sudan’s population (7.7 million people out of a population of 12.4 million) faced extreme levels of hunger in 2023; the World Food Programme estimates 9 million people will require humanitarian assistance in 2024, half of them children.

The situation in 2023 was exacerbated by the war in neighbouring Sudan. This disrupted food imports meaning staples have risen by 30% in price over the past year. The war has also triggered an influx of just under 600,000 refugees, which has further pressurised already strained resources. 

The security situation also jeopardises the delivery of aid to the needy. In January, an attack on the UNISFA base in Agok, Abyei, suspended the distribution of humanitarian aid. There have also been attacks by armed actors on humanitarian convoys. One incident in late January saw two truck drivers ambushed and killed along the Abyei – Warrap road.

The drop in government revenue stemming from the disruption in oil exports now poses a tangible threat of state collapse. It firstly will hamper the government’s already restricted efforts to distribute desperately needed aid. But it will also likely lead to an intensification in nationwide violence, further undermining state authority and exacerbating the perilous humanitarian situation.

Security Advice for travellers to South Sudan

• Reconsider all non-critical travel to South Sudan while armed groups continue their violence, particularly in Abyei and Warrap State;
• Consider employing a reputable security company for static and mobile security, as well as making use of a reputable local agent to advise on local security and transport specifics;
• Make robust plans for emergency evacuation, including having a clear route to the airport monitor local media to keep abreast of the security situation and be vigilant for any changes to the political or security environments;
• Keep a low profile, ensuring that valuables are minimised and out of sight;
• Do not travel at night.

by Edward Bach , Risk Analyst, NGS

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