On this day in 2020...26th July
Keith Wright
Writer - Author of the Inspector Stark series of crime thrillers - winner Independent Press Awards 2021. Inactivist. Supporter of NFFC.
Extract from the upcoming book,
‘Coronavirus – 2020 Vision.
The road to Freedom Day.
A complete diary and events of the COVID-19 pandemic.’
- Keith Wright.
©KeithWright2021
SUNDAY 26TH JULY 2020
Facts and figures.
Sunday 19th July – 11 deaths. 580 new cases.
Monday 20th July – 110 deaths. 445 new cases.
Tuesday 21st July – 53 deaths. 769 new cases.
Wednesday 22nd July – no data.
Thursday 23rd July – 123 deaths. 768 new cases.
Friday 24th July – 61 deaths. 767 new cases.
Authors note. Getting the data continues to be tricky as the website updates by the government are sporadic.
I will endeavour to keep finding it for you as it is important to keep monitoring how this crucial stage is progressing.
The new cases continue to be high while the deaths seem relatively low.
A cynical person might ask the question what the odds are that in a four-day period, three of the numbers for new cases are 767, 768 and 769.
Blackburn jumped.
Luton and Blackburn are now ‘areas of intervention’ due to COVID-19 spikes. They are in the same category as Leicester and Oadby and Wigston.
The categorisation of Local Authority areas determines those which have different categories the most important being,
‘Area of intervention,’ ‘Area of enhanced support,’ and ‘Area of concern.’
The league table is decided on cases per 100k of population and other individual factors.
An indicator of the levels we are talking about here:
Blackburn jumped this week from 49.7 cases per 100k population to 81.9.
Leicester has fallen from 102.5 to 65.6 cases per 100k. (This is a good indicator of progress).
The intervention does not mean a full lock-down necessarily at this stage, it is more likely that the lifting of measures around gyms and leisure centres would not take place in this area for two weeks. It might also mean a concentrated closing of businesses and venues or cancelling events, closing schools, closing outdoor public areas and restricting travel for all but key workers.
The reproduction number: the r number, remains at 0.7 – 0.9 across the UK.
Satellite view.
There has been much activity around the world with rising infections. The USA reached over 4 million cases.
The worrying aspect is the exponential speed: It took 99 days to get to 1 million but has taken only 15 days to get from 3 million to 4 million cases.
Almost 40 countries around the world have reported record single-day increases in new infections over the past week, which is around double the number that did so the previous week.
France has seen a significant surge in cases with COVID-19 traces being found in the Paris sewage system according to Emily Mee of Sky News.
The country’s health minister has reported more than 1,000 new cases per day – on Friday it was 1,130.
Germany had 818 and Spain too has seen an explosion of spikes over Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. On Friday it was a massive 2,255 new cases.
The worrying element about Spain is that the spikes are located at scores of locations across the country. Could this be the start of a second wave or just a blip?
Author’s retrospective note – the government acted on Saturday with regard to Spain’s explosion of new cases. See below.
Daily news.
The obligatory wearing of face coverings in shops and confined spaces began last Friday 24th July 2020.
Flu man chew.
Face coverings will not be mandatory in pubs and restaurants, but they will be to order food or drink from a cafe, if you are eating in. You can remove the face covering to eat or drink whatever you have purchased. Author’s note. It might be tricky otherwise.
The key areas for face coverings will now be public transport and shops. The places where, at least for now, that face coverings are discretionary are:
Hairdressers and close contact services.
Eat-in restaurants, cafes, and pubs when there is table service. No table service will require a face covering to be worn.
Entertainment venues, cinemas, concert halls and theatres.
Visitor Attractions such as heritage sites or museums.
Gyms and leisure centres.
Exemptions apply to children under 11, people with disabilities or certain health conditions- usually respiratory related.
There is a £100 fine for non-compliance. The police will only attend shops to police this if there is disorder.
Swampy.
The Prime Minister Boris Johnson has announced that this year those over 50 years old will be eligible for the annual flu vaccine free. Usually, it is free for the over 65’s.
This is welcome news and will help the NHS from getting swamped in the winter. This seems to happen most years in any case but if they are battling a second wave of coronavirus simultaneously then it would be untenable.
Mr Johnson has accepted in recent interviews,
‘there are things we get wrong and we’re learning the whole time.’
He said that at the beginning of the outbreak they did not understand COVID-19 well enough.
The P.M. said the single thing that they did not comprehend was the extent to which the virus was being transmitted asymptomatically from person to person.
He said,
‘You’ve got to learn from your mistakes as fast as possible and that’s what we’re doing.’
He said he expected that Britain will be ‘well on the way past’ COVID-19 by the middle of next year but tempered this by warning of ‘tough times ahead.’
Sunday’s newspaper headlines:
William “behaved like a snob” when Harry fell for Meghan.
– The Sunday Times
Virus brings new holiday misery.
– Sunday Express.
Kate: We rolled out red carpet for her.
– The Mail on Sunday.
Costa Del Quarantine.
– Sunday Mirror.
Tourists must quarantine on return home from Spain.
– The Sunday Telegraph
Arraign in Spain.
As revealed by the Sunday newspapers the UK government made the surprise announcement Saturday evening that as from midnight Saturday night anyone entering the UK from Spain must quarantine for 14 days.
As mentioned above, there are growing fears that Spain could be on the verge of a second wave, indeed the government has said all nightclubs and late-night bars in Catalonia are to close for the next two weeks. Figures vary but even the most conservative show Spain reported 971 new cases on Thursday and 922 on Friday with outbreaks visible in 280 different parts of the country.
There is an outcry from those Brits on holiday in Spain or the Canaries and Balearics, although you cannot help but wonder that they might have considered this a possibility when they jumped on a plane?
Dominic Raab said that the government will not apologise for acting swiftly to protect its citizens and warned that it could impose quarantine restrictions with other countries at short notice if required.
Don’t shoot the messenger.
Sky News’ technology reporter Alexander Martin ran an interesting article around the discovery of a ‘camouflage enzyme’ being used by the coronavirus. The enzyme is called nsp16 which the virus uses to fool the body’s immune system and gain access to host cells, which it then hijacks to replicate itself.
The enzyme is used to modify something called the messenger RNA cap; this tells cells in the body that the proteins they are being told to reproduce, are the correct ones. The virus enzyme tricks this messenger into believing all is above board, so they continue to reproduce the rogue proteins and cells.
The benefit of this discovery is that it could allow researchers to develop drugs which would prevent nsp16 from fooling the host cells and enable them to attack it.
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Family life.
A baker’s dozen.
It was my birthday yesterday (Saturday) and for the first time we were in a position to have a meal as a family.
I booked to go to The Nuthall pub and restaurant in Nottingham, which is a place we like.
My partner initially could not take time off but then was able to do so. This took the numbers from 6 to 7. (6 adults and 1 child). I rang them to update the numbers but was told that this was not possible as the government won’t allow the figures to go above 6.
I was disappointed but then rang another place who happily took the booking. They said that the government had recently eased the restrictions on single bookings from 6 to 8. I mention this modest inconvenience as it seems to show a disparity in understanding and a commendable determination by The Nuthall to stick to the rules.
.Gov website advice states that,
‘indoor gatherings are limited to members of any 2 households (or support bubbles), while outdoor gatherings are limited to members of any 2 households (or support bubbles), or a group of at most 6 people from any number of households.’
I have 4 children and a partner, and one of my son’s has a partner making 7 people (one of whom was 11 years old, two weeks ago). We have all seen each other separately once the lockdown was eased.
We should fit the bill, but it depends on whether children are included. It doesn’t say.
Redundant.
It was a new experience going to a pub/restaurant and it was different to pre pandemic. The room was fuller than I expected although we were at least at least a metre away from other tables, unless you moved to go to the toilet and walked past them, albeit this was a fleeting moment, I suppose.
The staff wore face guards or masks, but often the guards were lifted up exposing their face and defeating the object.
We had a great time, and it was lovely to get together with my family. I felt that overall, it was not quite as safe as I thought it would be.
Wave goodbye.
As we approach month eight of 2020 and having had a ‘nice’ lockdown, there is a little tenseness emerging periodically with Jackie and I, which I suppose is inevitable to some extent.
The main thing is getting Jackie some time for herself. I get my own space when she is at work, and normally, I would go and write in coffee shops for a few hours to give her some ‘me’ time.
Of course, there is nowhere for me to go so this can’t happen currently with coffee shops closed. I am a pain in the backside, basically.
Hopefully this will be resolved soon, although, there is a degree of uncertainty at the moment with the prospect of a second wave looming ever large.
Quote of the day.
‘We’re born alone, we live alone, we die alone. Only through our love and friendship can we create the illusion for the moment that we’re not alone.’ – Orson Welles.
©KeithWright2021
‘Coronavirus – 2020 Vision. The road to Freedom Day.
A complete diary and events of the COVID-19 pandemic.’
- Keith Wright.
This day-by-day factual and complete account of events throughout the coronavirus pandemic, written as it happened, gives incredible insight into what life was like during this tragic and historic pandemic in the United Kingdom and worldwide.
It includes facts and figures, government initiatives, news events, moving individual accounts, and the horrific consequences, as they happened each day.
There is also a daily, personal slant on what life was like for the author and his family during what threatened to be an apocalyptic event.
It reveals all humanity in its idiocy, compassion and brilliance; the key elements, significant dates, statistics, human stories, tragedies, government strategies, the twists and turns, the humour and the obtuse.
The coronavirus will define this generation and identify these times, like other rare global historical events such as the bubonic plague and the World Wars.
This book is something to show your children and grandchildren when they ask you what it was like during such a frightening time. It can also be used as a point of reference for historians, commentators, and educators. It is also merely for posterity.
Were you alive? Do you recall it? Do you remember our Prime Minister almost died with Covid-19? Remember, the Queen saying ‘we’ll meet again’ during lockdown? Surely you recollect the EU conducting ‘an act of hostility’ towards the UK to get their hands on our vaccines? The thirty police officers fined for having a haircut, or the first man in the world to be vaccinated being called William Shakespeare from Stratford Upon Avon!
The whole world was plunged into chaos, with death, suffering and economic disaster. How did we cope? How did all of this happen? According to Keith’s wife, Jackie, it was ‘all because a man ate a bat.’
Keith Wright previously worked leading Corporate Investigations for a global pharmacy retailer. He has worked on major Crisis Management Incidents alongside senior executives impacting across the world of pharmaceutical product management.
Critically acclaimed crime novelist, and former CID detective, Wright moves from fiction to a factual account of arguably the most historic natural event to blight humanity in modern times.
He has four children and lives in Nottingham, England, with his wife, Jackie.
All rights reserved ©Keith Wright 2021
Copyright©KeithWright 2021
If you are affected by any issues raised in the book contact:
The Samaritans or check local charities.
All information believed correct at the time of writing.
Diary entries gathered from an array of publicly available visual, audio and written sources and merged to give a holistic and creative editorial view.
Glossary and source lists are available at the end of the book.
This book is dedicated to those who have lost their lives and the extraordinary bravery of front-line NHS staff, key workers, carers, and everyone who, in their own way, have contributed to help others. We are grateful, and we thank you, wholeheartedly.
Author’s note.
My mother's first husband was killed in World War 2. His name was Arthur Smith. When I spoke with her about it, which, with hindsight, was too infrequently, she said he wasn't a fighter; he was a gentle, kind man, thrown into a hell with which he would struggle to adapt. He was an infantryman who died doing his duty for others, near Geel in Belgium, pushing through from the D-Day landings in 1944.
I use this as a loose analogy for our NHS heroes in the front line. These people are not emergency workers such as the police who are used to conflict and danger, nor are they like firefighters physically battling a fire and saving lives. These are people who have a caring disposition. (Not that the police and firefighters, don't care, bearing in mind that they risk their lives on a daily basis, but you see the point I am making).
NHS front-line workers are sensitive to the human condition and understand the nuances of helping another human being survive illness and injury. They are also people who have now seen the effects of COVID-19 and the nightmare conditions it engenders. Every fibre of their being is focussed on kindness and caring. Yet they have to find peculiar courage. The courage to risk their own lives and possibly even their families lives to treat others every day. Not only do they have to wear a surgical mask, but they have to display the mask of quiet reassurance, professionalism, and positivity, despite their fears. They have to fight with decisions like holding a hand of an infected dying patient when your COVID instinct dictates you surely must not do this.
Dear reader, this is real courage. I hope they are well looked after once this is all resolved, and they receive counselling to help them recover from this incredibly traumatic time.
BEFORE WE START THE DIARY. WHAT WAS IT ALL ABOUT?
As I commence this diary, this is what is known; our knowledge will grow over the months and years.
Coronavirus is a respiratory virus discovered in 2019. In lay-person terms, it causes the lungs to clog up, inhibiting the oxygen supply to the blood, and eventually causing organ failure. Its potency is in how virulently contagious it is. Coronavirus is the virus that leads to the disease COVID-19.
It is believed to be a zoonotic illness, meaning it jumped species to infect humans. Researchers believe the most likely source is the Rhinolophus sinicus, otherwise known as the horseshoe bat which was consumed having been purchased from a ‘wet market’ in Hubei Province, China.
COVID-19 was originally known as 2019-nCoV. It stood for the year of its discovery - 2019, the fact that it was a new (novel) virus (n), and it came from the Corona Virus family (CoV).
The name was changed to COVID-19 when it became a pandemic. The World Health Organisation had to allocate a name for the disease that did not relate to a person; a group of persons, an animal, a geographic location, was pronounceable, and relatable. Beyond this, the formal name for the virus given by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses called it the 'severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2' or SARS-CoV-2, because it is related to the virus that caused the outbreak of SARS in 2003. For the avoidance of doubt, it will be referred to by the name everyone uses; COVID-19 or ‘Covid.’
Early analysis of the virus suggests that two main strains exist, designated L and S. The L strain appears to be more prevalent (70% of cases); however, it is the S strain that is the ancestral version. L strain appears to be the most aggressive and spreads quickly. It should be noted that this is a new virus to humanity, and we are starting from absolute scratch in our understanding of it. Even as knowledge grows, the chances of mutation are possible, if not probable, and suddenly all bets can be off.
The coronavirus is transferable by hand to mouth from surfaces or contact and close proximity with someone affected. As with all such viruses, it is also spread by droplets, contact, or airborne particles. It causes a continual dry cough, breathing difficulties, and some aches and pains. Latterly we discovered a loss of taste and smell was also a major symptom. It is a mild to moderate condition for 80 per cent of those who catch it. However, older people and those with underlying illnesses are at a much higher risk of death. As the disease progresses, we see more and more younger able-bodied people in intensive care and dying because of the virus. The World Health Organisation state that 3% of those contracting it will die. There is no cure and no vaccine.
The virus uses its outer prongs to lock on to a living cell. It then inserts its genetic material (RNA – Ribonucleicacid) into the cell. Once inside, it hijacks the machinery of the nucleus of the cell to make numerous copies of itself. It then destroys the cell, and the copies burst out and spread, to do the same thing to multiple other living cells and so the cycle continues, with the virus growing and multiplying exponentially.
The incubation period in a human can be anything from 0-15 days. Some people are asymptomatic and are oblivious to having caught it. Most people's immune system mounts an appropriate response, and they begin to feel better after around 5-7 days after a debilitating flu-like illness. In some people, the immune system goes into overdrive and starts attacking the lungs and other organs and the coronavirus. Infection can cause pneumonia, breathing difficulties, and further organ damage. In others, the immune system cannot cope, and they die. Some can appear to have overcome it and then deteriorate rapidly and die in a day, often with hypoxia – lack of oxygen. Some have been in a coma for 60 plus days, yet still, survive, but forever scarred and impaired.
It is reported that the first case of the disease was presented by a 55-year-old man in Hubei Province, China, on 17th November 2019. It spread and was located in Wuhan Province, China, a month later, in December 2019.
Other theories have emerged around the virus' origins:
Regardless of the exact trigger point, the coronavirus was initially thought to have arrived in the United Kingdom on 28th February 2020, and the first confirmed case being on 31st February 2020. In August 2020, samples by the University of Nottingham discovered that the earliest person to contract and then die with the virus was a 75-year-old woman from Nottinghamshire who tested positive on 21st February 2020.
It is now understood that a traveller returning from South Korea on 28th February 2020 most likely caught the virus in Nottingham rather than Korea as first assumed. Professor John Ball, one of the authors of the study, said ‘there was widespread community transmission of coronavirus’ in Nottingham in early February 2020.
In the UK, we have the National Health Service (NHS). This means that medical care is free at the point of need for all its citizens. The working population pay for this service through their taxes. Each country around the world has different healthcare systems, some insurance based. The NHS does not have any added complications around whether someone can afford to pay for their care through insurance coverage or otherwise.
Key players in the management of this crisis in the United Kingdom are:
Boris Johnson; Prime Minister,
Matt Hancock; the Health Secretary of State,
Dominic Raab; the Foreign & Commonwealth Secretary of State (deputising for the P.M.),
Rishi Sunak; The Chancellor of the Exchequer,
Professor Sir Patrick Vallance; the Chief Scientific Advisor and chair of SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies),
Professor Chris Whitty; the Chief Medical officer for Public Health England,
Professor Jonathan Van-Tam; Deputy Chief Medical Officer for Public Health England.
The virus has caused tens of millions of infections and millions of deaths worldwide, creating a global lock-down and an almost dystopian planet, of death and deserted streets, never before experienced in modern history. Some describe it as an apocalyptic disease. The fabric of society is changed with people told not to socialise and to stay at home. These changes have a massive effect on our way of life, the economy, and family interaction. What will life be like when we come blinking out of our homes in months or years ahead, assuming we survive, into a new world that is changed forever?
Our hope is for a vaccine, yet this is impossible for many months, probably years, if at all. Sadly, the world has been unable to develop a vaccine for any of the previous coronavirus such as SARS, (or even the common cold, which is part of the coronavirus family), so it would be remarkable if they manage to do so with this one.
Immunity after the disease is unclear. There is nothing to suggest that previous sufferers have immunity, nor for how long it will last if they do. There is even the danger of those recovering from COVID-19 gaining, something known as 'enhanced immunity.' This relatively unknown syndrome happens with Dengue fever, which means you get the disease far worse the second time.
I start this diary uncertain whether I will be alive to finish it or sustain it if I become one of the coronavirus victims. Will I be too ill to continue? Will I die? Things change day-to-day, and suddenly the future is more uncertain than ever before in my lifetime.
No one would have believed, a matter of a few short weeks ago, the changes that this vicious, dangerous pandemic would bring to our lives: the deaths, the uncertainty, the trauma, the separation, and the loss.
This book is intended to bear witness, record statistics, collate news articles, personal stories, front-line accounts, precis government briefings, and offer an intimate view of family life during this historic and tragic period in the year 2020 and beyond.
Release date July/ August 2021.
©KeithWright2021