Day One | September 30, 2024
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Bloc Québécois Ultimatum: Pension Boost or Political Crisis
Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet gave Trudeau's government an ultimatum: raise Old Age Security by 10% for those 65-74 and protect supply-managed farms in trade talks by October 29, or risk triggering an election. This move shifts the power dynamics in the House, with the Bloc now holding significant sway. The Liberals must weigh these demands against budget considerations and generational equity. The Conservatives are ready for an election, while the NDP's position is pivotal. How the government responds could dictate Canada’s political future in the near term.
Conservative Gambit: Poilievre's Persistent Push for Early Election
Parliament has grown more combative, with both sides trading sharp criticism. On Thursday, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre tabled a second non-confidence motionjust hours after the first one was defeated. This attempt also fell short, underscoring the tense political climate in Ottawa. The Liberals' minority government relied on support from the NDP and Bloc Québécois, who had set conditions for their continued backing. Amid accusations of desperation from the government, Poilievre keeps pushing for an early election, focusing on housing and crime.
CSIS Reveals New Instances of Foreign Interference in Canadian Politics
The Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) disclosed two new cases of foreign interference in Canadian politics during a public inquiry. These include attempts to defeat a Liberal candidate, and a former parliamentarian suspected of working on behalf of a foreign government. CSIS identified China as the most active country in interference efforts, followed by India. The agency warned that Iran might meddle in the next federal election due to conflicts in the Middle East. CSIS also cautioned about Russia's potential interference and highlighted emerging threats like "cognitive warfare" and spyware. The inquiry continues to investigate foreign interference in Canadian elections and political processes.
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Alberta Premier Aims to Enshrine Vaccine Exemptions and Gun Rights
Premier Danielle Smith announced plans to amend Alberta's Bill of Rights, allowing people to refuse vaccines and strengthening gun and property rights. Premier Smith notes these new measures will reaffirm Alberta's values and freedom while some worry they could hinder future public health responses. Critics point to potential jurisdictional issues with the federal government on firearms and rights already given in the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. Support for these proposed measures will be watched as Premier Smith nears her leadership review in November.
Past and Present Lethbridge City Councillors Battle for Provincial Seat
Two well-known local figures are competing for the vacant Lethbridge-West seat. John Middleton-Hope, a current city council member and former police chief, will represent the United Conservative Party. His opponent, Rob Miyashiro, a former city councillor with extensive public service experience, stands for the New Democratic Party. The upcoming byelection is seen as a test for both parties' new leaders with key issues including healthcare and education. The race will be closely watched, with both parties likely to invest significant resources. The election date remains undecided but is expected after November.
Premier Danielle Smith Proposes Innovative Tax Collection Solution
At the Alberta Municipalities convention, Premier Smith introduced the idea to streamline municipal tax collection. She suggested the provincial government could take over tax collection from cities and towns, potentially saving municipalities significant resources. Premier Smith emphasized this could allow local governments to focus more on meaningful programs for citizens. Municipal Affairs Minister Ric McIver noted the surprisingly positive reception to the idea. While still in the exploratory stage, this initiative demonstrates the government's commitment to finding creative solutions to support Alberta's municipalities.
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New Brunswick Election Heats Up
It’s Day 12 of the provincial election, with voters headed to the polls on Oct. 21. In recent days, the Liberal and Green campaigns focused on addressing the housing crunch, with Susan Holt promising to overhaul the property tax system, while David Coon announced a five-point plan to maintain and expand affordable housing, which includes a permanent rent cap. The PCs however, maintain that current efforts are sufficient and they don’t plan to introduce any new housing measures if re-elected. Education and healthcare also continue to be key issues, with the PCs announcing a new financial literacy program and the Liberals committing to tackle teacher recruitment in the wake of widespread vacancies. During the first and only leaders’ debate on September 25, the state of healthcare in the province had Blaine Higgs on the defensive. Susan Holt and David Coon frequently criticized Higgs’ record, who in turn accused Holt of lying about healthcare and housing statistics. Notably, Holt avoided using the term "Liberal government," instead referring to a "Holt government" or "Holt team," a move likely aimed at distancing herself from the unpopular Trudeau government, which Higgs has regularly criticized. The leaders were divided on healthcare, with Holt and Coon advocating for increased investments, while Higgs promoted alternative solutions, such as expanded access to non-doctor healthcare practitioners. In his closing remarks, Higgs warned New Brunswickers about a potential “costly coalition” between Holt and Coon, likening it to the Trudeau-Singh alliance. A Narrative Research poll from August 23 showed that 67% of New Brunswickers are dissatisfied with the ruling PCs. Susan Holt was the most preferred Premier at 30%, with 19% of New Brunswickers preferring David Coon and only 17% preferring Blaine Higgs. In spite of Higgs' popularity, the Liberals and PCs are running a close race, however the lack of consistent polling in the province makes it difficult to gauge voters’ intentions. The Greens are still a factor and in the event of a minority government will hold the balance of power.
Filmore Leads Halifax Mayoral Race
With municipal elections in Nova Scotia less than three weeks away, former Liberal MP Andy Filmore is the favourite to replace outgoing Halifax mayor Mike Savage. Filmore has faced criticism for unofficially campaigning before his resignation, while his opponents have questioned whether federal funds were used for campaign purposes. Filmore’s biggest rivals are current Halifax Councilors Pam Lovelace and Waye Mason. Recent polling from the Halifax Chamber of Commerce shows Filmore in the lead with 29% of the vote with Mason (13%) and Lovelace (12%) trailing. No other candidate received more than 3% of the vote but 37% of voters are still undecided, providing an unlikely but possible opportunity for Mason or Lovelace to challenge Filmore. Key issues according to respondents are providing housing for the homeless, improving public transportation, improving road conditions and reducing municipal taxes. Lovelace spent decades working for the CBC before becoming a councilor in 2020. In her role she has been an advocate for emergency exists in subdivisions but has lost local support after making several political gaffes including an anti-affordable housing comment and sending a cease-and-desist to some of her constituents. Mason, a downtown councilor has held his seat since 2012 and been an advocate for the centre-plan, a plan to create more pedestrian driven streets and more mixed-use areas. Voters head to the polls on October 19.
Unbudgeted Spending Increases Nova Scotia’s Deficit
Nova Scotia’s deficit has increased by $186.6 million to $645 million from the $467.4 million projected in March, according to the government’s first budget update. Increased spending is primarily due to additional appropriations or unbudgeted spending in healthcare, Service Nova Scotia and capital spending. While the government argued that the projected deficit is higher due to lower tax revenues than expected, Finance Minister Allan MacMaster stated that the government has made necessary investments to build more housing, invest in healthcare, and build critical infrastructure. The government has now had more than $1 billion in unbudgeted spending over the past two budgets. NDP leader Claudia Chender said she had “little confidence” in the government’s numbers. While Liberal finance critic Keith Irving, explained how "In the last fiscal year, every department but one — 17 of 18 — overspent their budget." With an election to be held on or before July 15 of next year, the PCs have retained a large lead in recent polls and a 54% approval rating in a Narrative Research poll this week. However, for comparison, when the incumbent Liberals lost the 2021 provincial election, they had a higher approval rating going into the election.
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BC Election Heats Up: Conspiracy Theories, and Controversy
In the first week of the BC provincial election, John Rustad's BC Conservatives unveiled a housing reform platform aimed at speeding up development approvals and cutting regulations. However, this announcement risks being overshadowed by a leaked BC United opposition research dossier that has revealed less than favorable information ranging from conspiracy theories, COVID-19 misinformation, and offensive views held by certain BCC candidates. Meanwhile, Premier David Eby of the NDP focused on housing and healthcare, promoting prefabricated homes and affordability measures, while BC Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau emphasized addressing the opioid crisis with evidence-based solutions. Polls are still virtually deadlocked, with the BC NDP and BC conservatives both being projected to take 46 seats. Take a look at Crestview Strategy's interactive election model.
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B.C. Election: Conservatives and NDP Unveil Strategies to Address Housing Crisis
Conservative Leader John Rustad and NDP Leader David Eby have announced their respective party’s plans to address the housing crisis this week. Rustad proposed speeding up home construction by reducing permit delays and streamlining approvals, while Eby promoted factory-built homes as a faster, more sustainable alternative. Both leaders aim to tackle housing affordability through innovative solutions, with Rustad focusing on regulatory reforms and Eby emphasizing pre-approved, prefabricated designs.
Metro Vancouver Mayors Warn That Transit Cuts Could Cost Households $1,000 Annually
Metro Vancouver may face significant transit service cuts if TransLink cannot resolve a looming $600 million funding deficit by 2026, which could cost the region’s economy $1 billion annually. The proposed cuts, including reducing bus service by half and slashing SkyTrain, SeaBus, and West Coast Express services, would increase road congestion by 20%, drive up household expenses, and reduce access to jobs. These cuts could leave up to 500,000 people without easy access to transit, disproportionately affecting areas like South Delta, Langley, and the North Shore. Local mayors are urging immediate funding solutions to stave off the impacts on their communities.
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Premier Doug Ford Proposes Major Changes to Ontario’s Roads
Premier Doug Ford unveiled a series of transportation proposals over the past week aimed at easing traffic congestion. The government announced a plan to study the feasibility of building a tunnel beneath Highway 401, which would run approximately 55 kilometres from Peel to York Region. Premier Ford also urged regulators to approve the proposals for the new Highway 413, stating that the environmental assessment had been over-studied. The Ford government also plans to introduce legislation that would prohibit the construction of new bike lanes in Ontario municipalities if they reduce space for motor vehicle lanes.
Ontario Government Seeks to Purchase Office Buildings in Downtown Toronto
The Ontario government is seeking to purchase an unspecified number of office buildings in downtown Toronto. The province is looking for properties that range between 200,000 and 600,000 square feet, and are located within a 10-minute walk from a subway or drive from a major highway, and have a market value of under $500 per square foot. The buildings should have at least 60% of the space available for use by the province within five years and be fully vacated by tenants in 10 years.
Ontario’s New Associate Minister of Bail Reform Calls on Ottawa to Strengthen Bail Rules
Graham McGregor, Ontario’s new Associate Minister of Auto Theft and Bail Reform, announced the province is prepared to build more jails to keep violent offenders behind bars. In a recent interview, McGregor criticized the federal government for what he calls a “revolving door” bail policy that allows repeat offenders to be released after getting arrested. He called on the federal government to strengthen bail laws and raised using the notwithstanding clause to override court rulings as one potential option.
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Live Nation to Construct New Concert Venue in Toronto
Live Nation has announced plans to build a new 50,000-capacity outdoor concert stadiumat Toronto’s Downsview lands, set to open by next summer. Named Rogers Stadium, it will be Canada’s largest purpose-built concert venue. Despite rising costs in the concert industry, Live Nation believes the project will meet the demand for major artists, seating around 30,000 fans with additional standing room. The venue, on land owned by Northcrest Developments, will host 12 to 15 performances annually.
City Staff Considering Cancelling Lawrence Centre Redevelopment Plans
City staff recommend canceling the $421-million St. Lawrence Centre for the Arts redevelopment due to $371 million in unsecured funding. They suggest repairing the current facility instead, which would cost $70-80 million over 10 years. Mayor Olivia Chow and the executive committee will review the proposal in October, with Chow saying her priority is to fix what already exists. Local councillor Chris Moise calls the recommendation "short-sighted," given the centre's importance to the arts community.
TTC Anticipates Federal Funding for New Line 2 Trains
TTC staff announced they are in discussions with the federal government to secure financing for Line 2 trains through a $3-billion public transit fund. Instead, the city expects $758 million from Ottawa, matching contributions from the province and city. The funds will go toward replacing 55 trains on Line 2, which are nearing the end of their 30-year service life. However, the new trains aren’t expected to be operational until 2030, while maintenance work is being done to extend the current fleet's lifespan.
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New Directive Clarifies Anglophones Retain the Right to English Health Services
The Quebec government has released a new directive clarifying that anglophones retain the right to receive health and social services in English, alleviating concerns about potential restrictions following recent changes to the province's Charter of the French language. The updated five-page document emphasizes that English speakers do not need to prove their identity to access services. This change comes after significant backlash against a previous directive that many in the anglophone community found worrisome and unclear. Health Minister Christian Dubé reiterated that the government aims to maintain service accessibility, regardless of language. The new directive, which replaces a more complex original, ensures that English communication is available in designated bilingual institutions and allows for English usage in other settings when requested by patients.
Opposition Parties Denounce $6.5M Subsidy to Presidents Cup Golf Tournament
Premier François Legault's government faced criticism for its $6.5-million subsidy to the Presidents Cup golf tournament, with opposition parties arguing that the funds could be better spent amid Quebec's $11-billion deficit. The Quebec Liberals, Parti Québécois, and Québec solidaire emphasized the need for improved public services, highlighting incidents like a junior college struggling to replace a toilet due to financial constraints. The Parti Québécois requested the economic impact studies justifying the subsidy. Tourism Minister Caroline Proulx defended the subsidy, claiming the tournament would generate $71 million in economic benefits and attract thousands of tourists.
Legault Facing Calls for Transparency Over $7B Investment in Northvolt Battery Plant
Quebec Premier François Legault is facing scrutiny over a $7-billion battery factory project with Swedish manufacturer Northvolt, particularly after the company announced significant layoffs amid declining electric vehicle demand. Opposition leaders are pressing the premier for transparency regarding the conditions tied to the $710 million in public funds already allocated. The Quebec government has given Northvolt a $240-million guaranteed loan to help the company buy land about 30 kilometres east of Montreal to build its plant. The government has invested a further $270 million in Swedish parent company Northvolt AB, alongside a $200-million investment from Quebec's pension fund manager.
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