Their day still hasn't come . . . Sinn Féin's diminished prospects for power in Ireland

Former UK Labour Party spin-doctor and successful political podcaster Alistair Campbell recently revealed he had been invited by Irish national broadcaster RTÉ to take part in its flagship Late, Late Show on 29th November, leading to his speculation that will be the date of the next Irish general election. Whether it is that precise date of not, incumbent Irish Prime Minister [Taoiseach] Simon Harris of the moderate centre-right Fine Gael party will go to the country before the end of 2024.

This time in 2023, most commentators in Ireland seemed certain that the Sinn Féin, a radical left-leaning republican party historically associated with the militant, armed Irish republicanism of the Provisional Irish Republican Army [PIRA], and already the largest political party on the island of Ireland, would soon be in power in both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

In May 2022, Sinn Féin's Michelle O'Neill had already been designated as First Minister of Northern Ireland following elections for Northern Ireland's devolved legislature in which Sinn Féin, for the first time, emerged as Northern Ireland's largest party. This was a political earthquake as Sinn Féin's core political position is the reunification of Ireland and the end of British jurisdiction in Northern Ireland.

Meanwhile, in the Republic of Ireland, polls consistently suggested that Sinn Féin was poised to break Ireland's political duopoly between Fine Gael and the more populist Fianna Fáil that emerged following Ireland's War of Independence [1919 – 1921] and the subsequent Civil War [1922 – 1923], fulfilling its traditional Irish invocation " Tiocfaidh ár lá" ["Our Day Will Come"]. This would see Sinn Féin President Mary-Lou McDonald becoming the Republic’s first female Taoiseach.

What a difference a year has made in Irish politics.

Sinn Féin has experienced a notable decline in public support, and the prospects of Sinn Féin finally achieving power in both jurisdictions on the island. There are multifaceted reasons for this sudden decline in Sinn Féin’s political fortunes.

1.   Internal scandals and party discipline

 The party has been embroiled in several internal controversies and scandals that have tarnished its public image. Notably, the resignation of senior lawmaker Brian Stanley, following an internal inquiry into a complaint against him, has raised questions about the party's internal governance. This incident, coupled with the departure of another deputy, Patricia Ryan, citing dissatisfaction with the party's management, has exposed cracks in Sinn Féin's organizational structure. Such events have led to public scepticism regarding the party's commitment to transparency and ethics.

2.   The handling of sensitive issues

Related to these scandals, the party's approach to such sensitive matters, particularly involving allegations of misconduct, has attracted much criticism. The case of former press officer Michael McMonagle, who pleaded guilty to child sex abuse charges, was perceived as being mishandled by the party leadership. Critics argue that Sinn Féin's response lacked transparency and accountability, reminiscent of past controversies linked to the IRA. This has eroded public trust and raised doubts about the party's commitment to ethical governance, while its responses to media scrutiny have been perceived as defensive or evasive, further impacting its public image.

3.   Policy Positions and Public Perception

Sinn Féin's policy stances, particularly on immigration, have contributed to its declining support. The party's perceived ambivalence on immigration issues, amidst rising asylum seeker numbers, has alienated certain working class voter segments. This perceived inconsistency has been exploited by political opponents to portray Sinn Féin as lacking clear and decisive policy positions, further diminishing its appeal among both its traditional voters and previous Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael voters prepared to "lend" their vote to Sinn Féin at the next general election.

4.   Leadership questions

Mary-Lou McDonald has faced personal and political challenges that have impacted her leadership effectiveness. Health issues and family matters have limited her public engagements, while internal party disputes have questioned her decision-making. These factors have contributed to a perception of weakened leadership at a critical juncture, undermining confidence in Sinn Féin's capacity to govern effectively.

5.   Strategic errors

Sinn Féin's performance in recent elections has been underwhelming. In the European Parliament elections held in June 2024, the party secured only 11% of the first-preference vote, a significant drop from previous years. Similarly, in local elections, Sinn Féin garnered just 11% of the vote, trailing behind Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. These results suggest that Sinn Féin's messaging and campaign tactics are no longer resonating with voters as they were in 2023. The party has experienced a significant drop in support among rural voters, older demographics, and the middle class. This shift suggests that Sinn Féin's policies and messaging may not be effectively addressing the concerns of these groups.

6.   Resurgence of the traditional parties

The resurgence of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, has further complicated Sinn Féin's electoral prospects. Under the leadership of Simon Harris, Fine Gael has seen a revitalization, with recent polls placing the party ahead of Sinn Féin. This resurgence is attributed to effective leadership, policy initiatives addressing voter concerns, and capitalizing on Sinn Féin's missteps. Combined with this, Sinn Féin's economic policies, particularly its proposals for increased public spending and taxation reforms, have faced scrutiny. Critics argue that these policies lack feasibility and could negatively impact economic stability. Additionally, the party's positions on social issues, including its approach to housing and healthcare, have been criticized as lacking clarity and practicality.

The party's focus on Irish reunification, an aspiration broadly shared by the majority of voters on the island of Ireland, may no longer track with the immediate priorities of the electorate, who are currently more concerned with housing, healthcare and immigration.

Conclusion

Sinn Féin's prospects in the upcoming Irish general election have diminished significantly over the last year due to a significant decline in public support. By contrast, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have experienced gains in recent polls, positioning them as the leading parties ahead of the election. Given these trends, Sinn Féin faces significant challenges in securing a victory in the forthcoming general election.