Defending Ethiopia - one comment at a time
I feel like I am a ቡና ቀማሽ that is increasingly dissatisfied and must make one of my own. But same as any other trade, I can’t be a professional ቡና ቆዪ እና አፍዪ overnight. So it is what it is. I will be the critique I need to be – contributing my share for where my beloved Ethiopia is and where I hope we should come out at the end of this ordeal.
This one is targeted to any and all local commentators – journalist and analysts – that are providing input to the international arena to expand and inform those that consume information and likely are able to influence how our diplomatic and foreign policy influencers will make up their script to speak to PM Abiy and his government.
Please note that “Analyzing contemporary Ethiopia and its political issues without understanding the culture and evolution of its politics, culture of communication, culture of mutual distrust, and culture of adherence to hierarchy would be fatalistic or at best will result in a skimpy analyses.”
የኢትዮጵያን “የፖለቲካ ባህል፣ እና የፖለቲካ ባህል ዝግመተ ለውጥ ፣ የግንኙነት ባህልን ፣ የእርስ በእርስ አለመተማመን ባህልን፣ እንዲሁም የስልጣን ተዋረድን የማክበር ባህል፤ ሳይገነዘቡ የዛሬን ኢትዮጵያ እና የፖለቲካ ጉዳዮችን ለመተንተን መሞከር ለተሳሳተ ትንታኔ የሚዳርግ ወይም ዉሃ የማይቋጥሩ ትንታኔዎችን ያስከትላል” ፡፡
The mistake that commentators make is in many ways related to their desire to isolate the TPLF behavior to just the war it instigated. That is destined to mislead. Nor PM Abiy, neither TPLF sees themselves in that box. This bad blood with TPLF wasn’t an issue that suddenly appeared when TPLF attacked ENDF bases (at least five bases) across Tigray at a relatively similar timeline - as TPLF itself explained in a “lightening” manner.
TPLF planned and equipped itself for this over the last two-and-half years, if not more. They knew they had an irreconcilable difference in government nature and behavior with both PM Abiy and the Ethiopian public. Even for those that support the TPLF ethnic federalist arrangement; they know that TPLF is only creating that umbrella to amass as much political voice in its support as possible. They know for a fact that the nature of TPLF neither allows ethnic nor federalist arrangement to succeed. Even if it does, it is only to allow it to maintain a level of control over its assumed constituency or to survive another day before it announce a come-back.
In talking about PM Abiy and his government, when a local commentator fails to mention the various movements in the ethnic federalist front that threatens the geographic and historic unity of Ethiopia and with an eminent threat of fragmentation - is again a huge miss. This is not just about a unitary ideological push. It has national, sub-regional, and regional implications in the social, economic, and political fronts. Ethiopia is the glue that keeps a fragile region together. The wrong button will result in disruption that is immense and will be felt in Europe and America. The right button will be a key that will open a whole new chapter in the horn – and a hopeful future for Eastern Africa – with over 550 million inhabitants.
The Amhara is labeled as force behind the desire for a unitary state. I disagree. The Amhara might desire that. But the support for unitary state comes from all corners of Ethiopia. What matters for many is what constitutes a unitary state. An arrangement that allows for a reasonable self administration but aims to build a nation that moves towards the creation of an economic-social-political unity, can be federalist but is inherently self-protective in its desire to remain in the federation.
A federal arrangement that has as its ultimate goal to fragment Ethiopia, isn’t the desire of Ethiopians. A relationship based on a threat of separation will not survive the test of popular ignorance (be it in the shape or form of change, prestige, allegiance, self-love, condition, or poor communication). TPLF and its cliques love the idea of a fear-based relationship because it thrives in bullying and abusing those that see grandeur - and is inherently designed to exploit a social group that uses its leaders as the only legitimate source of information or knowledge. This results in creating elites within each group that has little to no incentive to serve but will lord it over others to be served. One who takes, in this fear based relationship, the high road as did many - Tigrayans, Amhara, Sidama, Oromo, Somali, Addis Ababan – has paid with their self-respect attacked by TPLF and its regime.
In its departure from the politics in Addis, following April 2018 - TPLF sponsored and logistically supported all sorts of groups that it cultivated over the years to loud its fear based intercommunal relationships. Yes, they are loud and yes it seems they have a lot of supporters – but think about it. All knowledge comes from a source. If the source of knowledge was TPLF and its machinery, and it controlled the entire narrative – what other knowledge do you expect? Don’t be surprised. Those who found a pick-hole and tasted other knowledge know what TPLF is selling to be poisonous. Those who continue to align with it, even after they have seen and tested the poison TPLF force-fed them; are only doing so for personal and elite gain.