Democrats Flip the Script//Latest on the US polls and near-term political outlook

With just over 80 days to go before US elections, can the Harris/Walz momentum continue? It is starting to look plausible. Not only are Democrats moving up in both the national polls and electoral college projections (US Pollster Nate Silver is currently predicting 283 EC votes for Harris, with 270 needed to win) but also in more conservative prediction markets. Harris has even overtaken Trump for the first time on the topic of who would be a better economic steward according to an FT poll, something Biden hadn’t come close to for a year. 

This is fascinating for a number of reasons.  Firstly, in the three weeks that Harris has been campaigning as the Democratic nominee, the US economy hasn’t meaningfully changed. It strikes me that the 2024 US elections have well and truly invalidated the old slogan, “It’s the Economy, Stupid”. Even if the Fed cuts in September as expected, the impact would not trickle down to the consumer for some weeks or more. There is a clear enthusiasm gap emerging, and what happens next will depend in large part on how the candidates ride the wave. August, September, October and November surprises could all move the needle.

Most polls still show Harris as leading slightly, but within the margin of error, which is usually +/- 3 points. If you’re trying to keep track of this race using the usual horse race polls and metrics, you’re missing a lot of the action, which is happening online and on social media. Here, @KamalaHQ, as the campaign’s X-handle is called, is on fire. Its smart messaging and humour are translating into support from younger voters (as you’d expect), but it is also boosting grass-roots donations, volunteer numbers for the campaign, and energised attendees who are standing in long lines in summer heat to join campaign events, which are being described as having the atmosphere of music festivals. This is what is meant by momentum in a campaign. The strong performance from the Harris campaign in this regard also speaks to what political strategists refer to as a solid “ground game”, the network of key personnel and logistics, as well as good organisation. It’s not only vibes.

Polymarket, a prediction market that has been conservative when it comes to political developments, has just shown Harris ahead

Trump himself has become extremely active on his own social media network, Truth Social, of late, posting 30-40 times each day, ranging from questioning Harris’s racial identity to casting doubt on the crowd sizes at her campaign events. Trump’s online messaging is frustrating his advisers, who are reportedly warning him against making racist and misogynistic remarks and begging him to stay on message.

Trump’s posts on his Truth Social Network have become increasingly inflammatory

For reasons that are not clear, Trump is also not scheduled to be out on the campaign trail in the coming weeks.  This combination of a shrinking Trump campaign and a barnstorming Harris/Walz tour of crucial swing states looks set to carry on through Labor Day. He has given a press conference from his residence at Mar-a-Lago and will participate in a discussion with Elon Musk, now a key supporter for Trump, on  X Monday evening. The combination of a shrinking Trump campaign and a fast-paced Harris/Walz tour of swing states looks set to carry on through Labor Day (Monday September 2nd).

First there was a “White Dudes for Kamala” fundraising call, get ready for “Swifties for Kamala”

Is this enough to win the White House for Harris? Here the future-gazing gets cloudier, not least because in questioning the validity of the change at the top of the Democratic ticket, Trump appears to be sowing the seeds for objecting to the legitimacy of a potential Harris victory. I have been cautioning you from the start of this year that given the sheer number of wild cards and variables in this race, we should not expect a clear result on November 5th, and this continues to be the case. From claiming that photos of crowds are AI-generated to casting doubt on the legality of Harris becoming the nominee, be prepared for Trump to not only cry foul if he loses, but for him to refuse to concede once again. This time, if it happens again, he will lack the advantage of being the incumbent in the White House, but a delayed and/or contested outcome and civil unrest could follow.

There is of course plenty of time for the Harris/Walz campaign to fumble, or for other wild cards like election interference or surprise events. A friendly reminder that in September of 2020, Hillary Clinton was +4 points ahead in the poll, and her victory was solid conventional wisdom among pollsters and market participants alike. The Harris campaign is capitalising upon its momentum, but is increasingly criticised for not having granted formal interviews or held a press conference, or issued economic policy positions, focusing instead on its campaign events and direct communication to voters via social media. Recently I mentioned a key “PQ Razor”, namely the inverse correlation between a candidate’s exposure to the public and popularity, so the Harris strategy has merit. Even so, they will need to engage with the press soon.  Harris has said she will hold a press conference by the end of August. The second presidential debate on September 10th (though the first between Harris and Trump) will be another opportunity for Harris to present herself to the American public in a “split screen” with Trump. Get out the popcorn for that one…

Harris’s policy positions are emerging piecemeal, but one thing that seems evident is her desire to distance herself from some of the more progressive positions she ran on during her 2020 presidential bid, such as banning fracking. I expect her to move to the centre considerably, including possibly taking a position on cryptocurrency. As was evident in her recent suggestion about not taxing income from tips, I think we will see Harris doing some political cross-dressing, taking “inspiration” from Trump positions—and possibly some voters too.

Speaking of political cross-dressing, to my mind, one of the cleverest tactics of the Harris-Walz campaign has been its use of key mantras, like “Not going back” and Tim Walz’s highly successful “Mind your own damn business” line , which he cites in reference to the campaign’s stance that government should stay out of doctors’ offices and school libraries, among other things. This Libertarian-esque stance manages to reframe Republican “culture war” issues like restricting reproductive rights and LGBTQ and race/equality measures and turn it on its head by suggesting that government intervention has gone too far. Similarly, Harris has taken the historically Republican theme of “freedom” and reclaimed it, starting from her first campaign appearance where she came out on stage to Beyonce’s anthem of the same name. 

Also surprising have been the “USA, USA” chants at the rallies—I don’t recall hearing this from Democrats for decades.

Harris’s running mate, Minnesota governor Tim Walz- a 60-year old Midwestern man who hunts and fishes (as well as having served 24 years in the Army National Guard, being a teacher, member of Congress and state governor)—also provides political cover for engaging the blue collar white voters who have migrated away from the Democrats since the Clinton era to return. There is only modest evidence of this trend at this stage, but if the campaign’s sellout merchandise is a leading indicator, it’s working (note for non-Americans: hunters wear camouflage gear, and every major sporting goods store in America has not only a huge gun section, but camo attire for all shapes and sizes.) According to Fox News, the Harris-Walz camo baseball hats sold out immediately; I am unsure if the beer holders (“America made, union printed”) remain available.

Later this week will see the US Democratic Convention kick off in Chicago, as well as a major diplomatic effort bringing together the US, Israel, Egypt and Qatar for what is being reported as “make or break” cease fire negotiations. As we’ve been saying for some time, the prospects for a breakthrough in the Middle East unfortunately remain slim—despite the immense loss of life, neither side looks ready to surrender and agree to compromises.

But here too is a new wrinkle, namely that President Biden is now unencumbered by running for re-election, and will be focused on establishing his legacy as president. While he will not want to take action that will undermine Harris’s election prospects, he may feel freer to make changes to previous policy and apply pressure. Biden has five months in office before his successor takes over, and thanks to changes in the Supreme Court, has more room for manoeuvre than at any time in recent memory. We will soon see what is on his wish list.

Key US Political Signposts  

August-November

August 15: Democratic National Convention 

“Final Round”:  Mideast negotiations August 15 (US/Egypt/Qatar) 

September 10: 2nd Presidential Debate (ABC)

VP Debate? TBC 

US Elections Early Voting Begins in some states

(California, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Virginia allow early voting with dates varying by state between September 16th and October 8th)

I haven’t even touched on the astonishing fact that Ukraine has now invaded Russia, holding two districts near Kursk and exposing the fragility of the Russian operation in Ukraine. Putin has long threatened to use nuclear weapons if Ukraine were to attack Russian territory, and fear of reprisals has been a primary reason for the caution from the US and Europe on arming Ukraine. But more on that later. The situation in the Middle East remains fragile as Iran continues to threaten retaliation against Israel following the two assassinations, while Israel waits.

Bookings are coming in fast for the autumn, so don’t wait if you have an event in mind or want a pre-board briefing. There are only so many hours in the day!

Tina Fordham Joins Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg’s The Pulse to Discuss Harris/Walz Campaign Surge

Catch up on our latest newsletters.

Click here to view our newsletters

Read our most recent newsletters: 

• Meet Tim Walz, Harris’ Veep Pick
• The Guns of August//Iran Strike Imminent?//Venezuela Post-Election Chaos//Harris-Trump Tie//Which Veep?
• Danger Zone Summer: Venezuela Elections Blowback//Hezbollah and Hamas Leaders Assassinated + Harris Surge Continues