Will demonetization push Mayawati towards Congress in Uttar Pradesh?

Amitabh Tiwari & Subhash Chandra

Demonetization has impacted poll campaigns of regional parties in Uttar Pradesh. While both Modi and Rahul held rallies in Kanpur and Jaunpur yesterday, Mayawati has not held a single rally since Nov. 8 and Akhilesh’s rath yatra has been stalled. It is possible that Congress and BJP being national parties have better access to election funds when compared with SP and BSP. Cash crunch has hit BSP and SP so hard that some of their candidates are mulling returning tickets as per press reports. The recent ED find of Rs 108 cr cash deposits in BSP accounts has complicated matters even further.

SP spent a meagre Rs. 20 crores on election campaign in UP in 2012, which hints at the magnitude of black money used by the party. This time it is using the State budgetary allocations to advertise about its programs to the public. BSP which spent Rs. 290 crores on five state elections in 2012, majority of it in UP, doesn’t have the luxury of State resources.

BSP has been conceding ground since first opinion poll in Mar. 2016 which predicted it would emerge as the single largest party. Exodus of leaders and allegations of sale of tickets has hit the party hard though Mayawati continues to enjoy good support as preferred CM candidate in various polls.  

Mayawati has a big stake in UP. With no representation in Lok Sabha, a loss here could lead to disintegration of the party. Until early November, BSP was hoping to topple the BJP through an aggressive play for the Muslim vote along with its traditional Dalit vote and some upper caste votes. Though she has given a call to Muslims to unite behind BSP to defeat communal BJP, significant minority community swing towards her party is missing in the polls.

Minorities appear to be undecided on choosing between the clean image of young Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati who could be a better challenger to the BJP. Mayawati’s hope was to drag a significant proportion of muslim votes in favor and end up with about 32% of the share, marginally better than the BJP at about 30% of the share.

However, Demonetisation has suddenly emerged as a big issue in this election. It has had two distinctive impacts.

One, it has dried up funding for BSP and SP. Parties who are not seen as front runners generally face difficulty in raising funds from public and corporates. Demonetisation has made this more difficult. BJP is in a better position to raise funds as it is seen as the frontrunner in absence of any mahagathbandhan.

Two, it has consolidated voters across castes in favor of the BJP especially in urban areas. As per C-Voter survey demonetization and cashless economy initiative of govt. has received a thumbs up from public in UP. While the swing may be only 2-3%. It could take BJP closer to the 35% mark making it extremely difficult for BSP to beat the BJP.

The Congress party had sent overtures to Mayawati around six months ago but Mayawati didn’t oblige them as she felt Congress would benefit more from such an alliance. However, back channel talks have continued. Congress party then tried to forge a mahagathbandhan with SP, talks are still ongoing. 

BSP and Congress have complementary support blocks consisting of upper castes, kurmi/koeri, dalits and muslim voters and they contested polls together in the state in 1996.

Source: CSDS Reports

An alliance with the Congress party could provide several benefits to BSP.

Firstly, Congress party’s 6%-8% vote share could prove handy in about 50-75 seats.

Secondly, this likely performance could encourage people to fund the alliance as it would be seen as a worth rival. Additionally, it could also tap at some resources of national party like Congress.

Thirdly, the Congress party itself may be far more amenable now to agree to a more liberal seat arrangement closer to the election than it was a few months ago.

Lastly, it could lead to consolidation of minority votes and fetch 7%-12% vote share to alliance. Muslims are the only vote block who have not yet decided who they would back in the state polls.

All others have more or less made up their minds who they would overwhelmingly support – OBC (BJP), Upper Caste (BJP), Dalits (BSP) and Yadavs (SP).

Approximately half of muslim community has voted for SP in the past elections. Both BSP and Congress also enjoy significant support among the community (just short of 20% each).

Brahmins too could be tempted to vote BSP like in 2007. Brahmins were generally happy with law and order situation under Maya’s tenure and also occupied important ministerial positions in cabinet.

Muslim voting preference in UP polls since 2002

Source: CSDS Reports

The alliance has arithmetic on its side. As per three opinion polls BSP + INC combined vote share is higher than BJP assuming seamless transfer of votes from one party to another. Even after assuming a leakage (loss of votes in translation) of 10%, BSP+INC is strongly placed to challenge BJP. The leakage would be less because both have same anchor voting segments and transferability should not be an issue.

To conclude, twin impact of pressure on funding and on vote bank in urban areas has forced parties to look for alliance avenues in UP. Polls increasingly showing Maya can’t beat BJP alone. Congress badly needs an alliance to save its face in UP. An alliance is a win-win for both, as there could be seamless transfer of votes. Demonetisation could force the friends turned foe, to become friends again.

(This article has been co-authored by Amitabh Tiwari and Subhash Chandra. They are independent political commentators and can be reached at @politicalbaaba and @schandra_100)