Denver Real Estate: March 2017 Update

Denver's real estate market is shaped by many things. There are many factors and metrics we can mention when discussing the market. These include:

1. Rising home prices
2. Overwhelming consumer demand for homes
3. A lack of inventory for sale
4. New construction not keeping up with demand for housing
5. Rental prices skyrocketing
6. The effect gas and oil prices have on housing
7. How the marijuana industry has affected our market
8. What parts of town have appreciated more than others over time
9. How low interest rates are continuing to make housing relatively affordable

However, I believe this chart is most telling. Everything you need to know about our current real estate market is contained here:

The solid line shows the inventory (i.e., the number) of homes for sale in metro Denver every month from January 2008 to January 2017. The dotted line shows the number of homes sold every month. You can see that the inventory peaked in May 2008 at 26,000 homes for sale. That was at the depth of our economic and housing downturn. Fear ruled our market, banks were being shut down, our local and national economies were in shambles, unemployment was rising, and consumer confidence hit new lows. The result, of course, was that people didn’t want to buy homes. They were afraid of the future and didn’t want to take on any risk. On the seller side of the equation, many homeowners were getting caught with rising monthly mortgage payments as their Option ARM mortgages adjusted upward - So suddenly they wanted to sell at the worst time possible.

It’s simple economics: if you have more supply than demand, prices fall. That's exactly what prices did from 2007 to 2009. In 2010 and 2011 the market became roughly balanced with 18,000 to 20,000 homes on the market. But, as you can see, the market did not remain balanced for long because the supply continued falling.

In January 2017, there were 3,974 homes on the market, nearly an all-time low! This lack of inventory defines our current housing market.

It’s interesting to see that while the solid inventory line has dropped dramatically the past seven years, the number of sold properties (dotted line) has barely inched upward, even though our population continues to rise about 1.5 percent per year. This tells me that our demand for housing is going to stay strong for the foreseeable future.

So what now?

If you own a home and are thinking about moving: It’s an incredible seller’s market and you can expect to get top dollar for your home. You’ll need to consider the purchase of your next home though, and make sure you have planned the process correctly so you find the home of your dreams and make the transition from your current to future home seamless.

If you are renting: Rents continue to move upward to all-time highs. It might be time to consider what would be the next best financial move for you. Are you in place to purchase a home? With inventory so low, you’ll need to make sure you’re pre-qualified for a loan to buy a home before you even enter the housing market. Find out what you can qualify for so you can make an educated decision on purchasing vs renting. There are advantages to both. Of course, in our current market conditions, prices are expected to continue to rise, reducing your purchasing power with each passing year.

If you’re considering buying rental property: There’s no better way to build wealth than owning rental properties for the long term. Home prices have risen, but so have rent prices, and interest rates remain near record lows. Smart investors don’t try to time the real estate market; it’s as difficult to do as timing the stock or bond market. The vast majority of Americans who have built wealth as real estate investors have done it buying rental property and having their tenants pay the mortgage off for them over time. It’s not complicated and it works.

As always, I'm happy to discuss the state of the current market in more depth. As you can guess, I have many resources to help inform and educate those who want to know! I look forward to hearing your thoughts. Have a great week!