Did Britain Get the Covid Response Wrong?

As a new version of the Covid virus rampages across the UK, the real question is “did the UK Government get their approach to Covid totally wrong?”

According to the science community, which saw this threat as early as March and April 2020, the Government’s delay to respond to the early warning signs in Feb and Mar 2020 led to the initial lockdown. Talking on the Hard Talk show on the 5th Jan, Professor Neil Fergusson, who previously advised the political leadership, indicated that lessons identified from the first lockdown were ignored by the political leadership, resulting in the current situation that has unfolded.

The UK was ranked 2nd in the world in 2019 Global Health Security index to manage a pandemic, far higher rated than Singapore (24th), South Korea (9th) and New Zealand (35th). The fact has shown that rather than relying on technology, lockdown and a slow approach, Singapore, New Zealand and South Korea reacted quickly, instigating a rapid, full scale track and trace program, supported by widespread manual testing, and testing every individual entering the country. Within these nations there has been a fraction of the deaths and infections, while in the UK on the 5 Jan there were over 60,000 infections and 830 deaths.

Rather than listening to the science and accepting the modelling was demonstrating what was about to occur, Professor Fergusson, who urged a lockdown and going against government direction, remarks that the failure of the Government to act when advised, and instead forcing schools and universities to remain open led to thousands of unnecessary deaths. There has been a clear failure of the political class to act as leaders, and, in Professor Fergusson’s opinion, the government was more focused in placating the population’s desire to have a Christmas holiday rather than understanding the true risk of failing to act.

This lockdown now sees the UK in a worse position than it was in Mar 2020, due to the new variant that is 50-70% more transmissible, and recent figures indicate that 1:50 members of the UK population are being infected daily. Early in 2020 Sage advisors noted that the failure to act quickly would enable the virus to obtain a foothold; it was similar in Sep 2020 when they indicated that a failure to act would enable the new variant to gain a rapid foothold across the UK; twice the UK government failed to move quick enough, and when compared with other European nations that moved quicker, the infection and death rates have been significantly lower. The result is that there are several UK hospitals that have, or are on the verge of, initiating a “Major Incident” situation as they become over-run with seriously ill individuals suffering from Covid.

This difference in the approach between the UK and Far East nations, and the subsequent results, demonstrates the clear importance of operating quickly in a crisis, reacting to available intelligence, clear communication, and the need for effective leadership, willing to make the difficult calls early, and resist the desire to try and earn the favour of the population. The failure to act has now resulted in a significant drop in the trust in Government, with recent polls shows a major drop-in support for the Government.

It is important that there is an open investigation into the UK response to the Corona virus, the decision-making process at the political level, and why there has been such a failure of the UK to respond in a way it was expected to in 2019. There is also a need for investigation into UK legislation, including the failure of the Civil Contingencies Act 2004, which allowed many local councils to be in a position of not having a Business Continuity strategy in place when the pandemic erupted, even though it was a legal requirement.

It is very apparent that the UK Government has failed to learn lessons on several occasions; there was the option to learn initial lessons from the outbreak in China, then the impact that the virus had in Italy, then Spain and then how it was impacting the US. Then there was the chance to learn lessons from the first lock-down and how resources, military capability and the behaviour of the population impacted the spread. Then, as other nations, such as South Korea and New Zealand, took control of the virus spread through tough measures and effective messaging. Finally, there was the option to act quickly when the appearance of the new variant appeared in September 2020. Unfortunately, these opportunities were ignored, and now the UK finds itself in another lockdown, while Singapore and South Korea maintain a far better level of social mobility, a higher functioning society, and a continued level of control of the virus through effective social distancing, test, track and trace, financial punishments and population support.

The Coronavirus pandemic has shown major failing in the UK’s intelligence gathering mechanisms, the UK’s response framework, and the political decision-making effectiveness when faced with a crisis of increasing severity. The pandemic was a Black Swan event requiring effective, timely decisions and clear communication; there was a failure of both from the UK Government, resulting in many unnecessary deaths and financial implications for multiple UK businesses. Only time will tell how catastrophic the delay to act has been.