Does logic prevail against emotion within commercial grain markets?

Much to our surprise the data raised some additional questions which were drilled down & analysed in detail. Please note the following text does not form part of any survey & should be read as food for thought, there is NO factual evidence proving or disproving the text below only an appeal to logic… if it prevails against emotion with in any commercial marketplace?

How do you think local commodity prices get set? 

If the first thought that came to mind was “Supply & Demand” its too general and a lazy attitude toward business.. go back to sleep and let the market decide your income & your future… ignorance is no excuse. If you think I’m being a bit harsh.. you’re right because you “must” stay tuned in, well informed and technically savvy if you are to mitigate risk into profit.

The Thinking Material

Information transparency, communication frequency, fact, fiction, reality. 

Thousands of text messages, emails, phone calls, articles, charts, quotes are published weekly if not daily…

so do you think you are the only one receiving this information?

Is it confusing? 

What is one to believe? 

Are you proactive or reactive or do you sit and hope? 

In truth anyone & everyone can get pricing information, this includes competitors V competitors, buyer V buyer, broker V broker & so-on.

“The Information You Don’t Get Makes All The Difference”

If you are to be well informed as a buyer or a seller you will need to know or more importantly your broker and industry association should know ...

For sellers and buyers.. ask yourself

• What are the current national yield estimates including any carry-over? 

• What are the warehoused levels in your region & at what price did you or others sell it for>? 

• What are the local & national consumption rate averages; historical and or expected? 

• How many tonnes have been pre-contracted on a forward basis and at what price? 

• How many tonnes have been contracted on an area contract basis / price? 

• How many tonnes have been contracted on any given month or period / price? 

• How many export tonnes have been pre-contracted / price? 

• What are the likely feed substitutes for any given commodity, manufactured or imported? 

• What are meat price estimates current and expected? 

• What is the current state of affairs in overseas markets/ production and political? 

• What is the current and future state of affairs with Australian government trade policies? 

• What has been the average rainfall within competing regions? 

• What is your cost of production and how detailed/accurate is your budget/ cash-flow? 

• Will you need increased storage capacity in the future? 

• What are your competitors up to? (both sellers and buyers)

You may be able to answer some of the questions above with some degree of accuracy.. “But’ who do you think have the answers or “Should” have the answers to most of the above questions? [and] who are they sharing this information with.. if at all? And why not you?

Ask your own questions; research your own answers and 

MAKE YOUR OWN INFORMED DECISIONS relating directly to your current business and financial situation.