The Door Decision: How These Amazon Execs Assess Risk

Here’s a paradox: Your biggest risk is not taking one.

Yet it rings vitally true for leaders, as we learned interviewing two senior execs from seemingly polar opposite divisions of Amazon . Ryan Redington is general manager of Amazon Music, and Kara H. Hurst heads Amazon’s sustainability unit. Both see risk-taking as the key to success. The reason is simple: you cannot grow in the status quo.

The stakes are existential. Kara points out that the growing effects of climate change confront Amazon in their buildings, supply chains, logistics, and more. The risks of natural disasters only boost if the company doesn’t take risks on innovative solutions in sustainability. Meanwhile, in the entertainment environment, Ryan finds reduced revenue and interest in a music industry that favors old-school practices of innovation as our culture changes.

Both emphasize risk-taking isn’t impulsive, but a careful process.

One risk-assessment framework that serves them well is the One-Way versus Two-Way Door Decision. As the name implies, a one-way door decision means you can’t step back once you commit to this path. The risk is higher; what’s done cannot be undone. These types of decisions should be made sparingly.

Two-way doors represent reversible decisions. If you move ahead with a proposal and it doesn’t work, no worries. You can walk your decision back, and return to the previous policy or SOP, then try a different innovation or solution. Two-way door decisions are ideal for fostering innovation and testing new ideas. They encourage speed and experimentation; the team knows failure won’t be catastrophic. They can regroup and try again.

When you foray into completely new ground, data can be hard to come by. Gut instinct may be your only guide – but understand this makes the risk greater. You may be waltzing through a one-way door without realizing it. Whenever able, gather as much data as possible. The more you have on hand to analyze, the more informed your decision will be, and the more calculated your risk. Failure is less likely to surprise you, so you can plan for it…as well as the hoped-for success.

Succeed or fail, every time you go through a door is a win because you learn, and through that learning, you grow. The door analogy is perfect because it reminds you that there is a way through any barrier. Your team sees this style as a type of support for their ideas; in turn, structured risk-taking enables you to pursue your bold ideas as their leader.

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This article was adapted by Dan Mushalko from our podcast episode Delivering the Future: Why Amazon Execs Lead Beyond Retail.

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