Drought in Brazil results in the loss of 8 million tons of soybeans = R$16.8bn.

The Brazilian Agribusiness sector is being highly impacted by climate change. This is not the first time. Last year we had 30% loss in coffee yield due to intensive frost. 20% reduction in the 2nd corn harvest and many more commodities being highly impacted. What is the pattern here? Monoculture & Conventional Agriculture is highly vulnerable and will die if it continues to manage soil & ecosystems the way is doing.

Regenerative Agriculture provides a cross-cutting solution to many of the world’s challenges. This is because integrating new species within agricultural systems includes not one but many benefits. Those include increased agricultural productivity, reduced hunger and poverty, women’s empowerment, biodiversity support, regenerated soils, enhanced farm resilience, improved and diversified diets, as well as: climate change mitigation.

This article will focus on the latter: regenerative agriculture as a solution to mitigate climate change. Indeed, regenerative ag can take CO2 out of the atmosphere and, thereby, counteract global warming. Regenerative Agriculture also has great potential as a climate change adaptation solution – that means helping farmers and landowners to prepare for the impacts of climate change. For instance, regenerative systems contribute to the health of the soil and increase biological diversity. These benefits increase farmers’ resilience and ability to cope with extreme weather events such as extreme rainfall or extreme drought as this one in Paraná, Brazil. These weather extremes are becoming more common as a result of climate change.

How agriculture is causing global warming

Currently, about 23% of the world’s total emission of human-made greenhouse gases (GHGs) comes from Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU). Within AFOLU, most emissions come from deforestation and agricultural production.

Taking a closer look, emissions within AFOLU are roughly divided into two halves, the ‘FOLU-side’ of the equation (including emissions from forests and other land uses such as peatlands), and the ‘A-side’ of the equation (including emissions from agricultural activity). Each side accounts for about 50% of emissions.

Within agriculture, emissions arise from many different types of farming activities (figure 2). The top three contributors to emissions are enteric fermentation – livestock feed digestion from ruminants such as cows and sheep, manure on pasturelands, and the use of fossil-fuel-based chemicals (‘synthetic fertilizers’).

It is interesting to point out that, considering global trends in fertilizer use, synthetic fertilizer will likely become a larger source of emissions than manure on pasturelands. This demonstrates how agricultural emissions can be influenced by how we farm: in this case, using synthetic fertilizer versus not using synthetic fertilizer.

We’ve now learned that temporary agriculture and deforestation are causing about a quarter of all human greenhouse gas emissions. We’ve also learned that agriculture contributes to emissions in many ways and that the type of management influences the total agricultural emissions.

How agriculture suffers the damages of climate change

Contemporary agriculture does not only drive climate change, but it is also affected by it. Global warming’s grave consequences can be seen within and beyond the agricultural community. For instance, global warming increases the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, adversely impacts food security and terrestrial ecosystems, and is contributing to desertification and land degradation in many regions of the world.

Heatwaves, droughts, dust storms, desertification, heavy rainfall, changing rainfall patterns, flooding, and sea-level rise are some of the effects of climate change that currently impact humans and nature, and will continue to do so in the future.

Regenerative Agriculture as a climate mitigation solution: emerging evidence

Despite this complexity, scientists are deepening their understanding of how much regenerative agriculture can contribute to climate change mitigation. They do this by examining the information of all existing research that has been done on the topic so far. Comparing the results of many studies allows for more statistical certainty and understanding of effects. This approach taken by scientists is called a meta-analysis.

These meta-analyses provide valuable information. The general trend is clear: systems that incorporate more trees capture more carbon. One meta-analysis, using the information of more than 100 case studies, suggests that one hectare of a young regenerative agriculture system annually takes 27 tons of CO2 equivalents out of the atmosphere. This is balances out the emissions of 5 average world citizens.

When translating this to a global scale, estimates of the exact potential are harder to pinpoint and vary widely. The IPCC estimates that regenerative agriculture has the mitigation potential of between 0.11 billion and 5.68 billion tons of CO2 equivalents per year globally. This holds true under the estimate that regenerative agriculture is applicable on 35% of the globally suitable lands (ice-free lands), mostly on rangelands and croplands.

When maintaining the estimated 27 tons of CO2 equivalents per hectare per year, conversion to regenerative agriculture could potentially mitigate 3.4 billion tons of CO2-equivalents per year globally. This is more than India’s total annual emissions – the world’s 3rd biggest emitter.

Estimating land availability

These calculations are based on the estimate that 126 million hectares of unproductive farmland worldwide can be successfully converted to regenerative systems. However, some estimates of the amount of land that could potentially be regenerated are much larger.

For example, the World Resources Institute (WRI) estimates that worldwide, one and a half billion hectares are best-suited for ‘mosaic restoration’. This is a management approach for land in which forests and trees are combined with other land uses and where Regenerative Agriculture can play a key role. Imagine the carbon sequestration potential then!

The renowned Australian researcher and farmer Dr. Charles Massy takes another angle on the subject. In his astounding TED-talk he refers to the world’s leading resource for climate change solutions – Project Drawdown. The latter outlines currently available measures and their potential to either take CO2 out of the atmosphere or prevent it from getting there.

Massy aggregated the potential of all solutions related to regenerative farming practices including various forms of regenerative agriculture (11:50). Together, they embody the most potent climate change resolution whilst outperforming the ‘runner-up’ by far. To clarify what this means: Regenerative farming is a more effective climate measure than commonly promoted options such as onshore wind turbines or plant-rich diets.