IS DUTTON JOSSING THE BOOKIES- you can't trust them or the pollsters?

As we head into the election season, we are yet again being offered the media managers' opinions of the preferences of the electorate that differ remarkably from the views demonstrated by people placing their bets on the likely outcome.

We will soon have both the Murdoch Media managed NEWSPOLL and a raft of other polls that are at odds with the odds that are being offered by the bookies who have Dutton jossing Frydenberg if Morrison departs.

Murdoch media will tell us, once again, that Albo is threatening to become our next PM, that Dutton is standing by and that Frydenberg is hunting down another set of knife sets to tempt us to give Morisson his next miracle victory. Of course, they will also tell us that the polls will get closer as we head to the only poll that counts.

Sportsbet sees it very differently. The bookies tell us that Peter Dutton is leading the field to beat Josh Frydenberg into the Oppo-leader's chair after Albo narrowly beats ScoMo into the top job. They present it as a series of two candidate races in a dozen marginal seats and encourage the punters to believe that it will take another miracle for the LNP to survive.

Meanwhile, the professional pollsters assure us that they have learned their lessons and are again shuffling their own view of the results by weighting their botched samples to try to retrofit them to Morrison's come-from-behind destruction of their credibility. No one has any residual trust in their results.

For the record, we should note that Clive Palmer's YELLOW AND BLACK hundreds of millions of spendathon plague on both leaders, in place of his claim to fame against Bill Shorten, is yet to deliver him a single seat - on that both the bookies and the pollsters are in furious agreement.

All this is supposed to be subject to review with the Khaki, Chinaphobic, Nuclear Subs, Tech not Tax and Miracle Marginal Seats Cashsplash that Dutton and Josh are trying to put together around priorities that do not reflect the top three priorities of the Quiet Australians that were (sic) prepared to trust their "daggy dad" marketing man last time.

This table drawing upon a national probability sample of more than twenty-five thousand householders last year provides some insight into the yawning gaps that are emerging between older and younger Australians, especially younger women who have very different perspectives.

IF THIS SET OF PREFERRED POLICY OUTCOMES REMAINS THE SAME AFTER THE RUSSIAN INVASION AND ANTI-CHINA XENOPHOBIA FROM THE AMBITIOUS DEFENCE MINISTER, THE GAP BETWEEN THE OUTGOING AND INCOMING PRIME MINISTERS BRINGS BOOKIES CLOSER TO THE POLLSTERS!

TOP POLICY PRIORITIES LNP 2PP RANK ALP 2PP RANK

THE TOP TEN

• Keeping day to day living costs down 1 1
• Global warming and climate change 2 2
• Improving health services and hospitals 3 3
• Open and honest government 4 4
• Managing the economy 5 5
• Reducing crime and managing law and order 6 6
• Improving education 9 7
• Reducing unemployment 8 8
• Australia’s ageing population 7 9
• Reducing the taxes you and your family pay 11 10
• Fair workplace and employment regulation 9 11
• Defence and national security 10 12

OUTSIDE THE TOP TEN

• The needs of families 14 13
• Managing immigration and population growth 13 14
• Improving business in Australia 15 15
• Keeping interest rates down 17 16
• The needs of people outside the cities 16 17

WE NEED AN INDEPENDENT NATIONAL POLL THAT HAS A VALID SAMPLE AND HONEST PERSPECTIVE SO THAT WE ARE NOT GULLED BY THE MEDIA MANAGERS YET AGAIN or at least a fortnight with no published media polls before the election day.