On Monday, July 10, 2023, there is a Canadian event scheduled at 8:30 AM for the release of the Building Permits month-over-month (M/M) data for May. There are no specific estimates provided for this report.
Tuesday, July 11, 2023, does not have any Canadian events listed.
Wednesday, July 12, 2023, is an important day for Canada as the Bank of Canada Rate Announcement will take place at 10:00 AM. Both CIBC's and the consensus forecast expects a 5.0% interest rate. The prior interest rate was 4.75%. Additionally, at 11:00 AM, Tiff Macklem, the Governor of the Bank of Canada, and Carolyn Rogers, the Senior Deputy Governor, are scheduled to speak.
Thursday, July 13, 2023, does not have any Canadian events listed.
Friday, July 14, 2023, features two Canadian events. At 8:30 AM, the Manufacturing Shipments M/M data for May will be released, with a consesus forecast of 0.8% and a prior value of 0.3%. At 9:00 AM, the Existing Home Sales M/M data for June will be released, with no consensus or CIBC estimates given. The prior existing home sales data was 5.1%.
On Monday, July 10, 2023, the US will release the Wholesale Inventories month-over-month (M/M) data for May. The consensus estimate suggests a 0.1% decrease, in line with the prior figure of -0.1%. Additionally, the Consumer Credit report for May is expected to show a decrease in consumer debt forecasted at $20.5 billion compared to the previous reading of $23.0 billion.
Moving to Wednesday, July 12, the US will announce various economic indicators. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June will provide insights into inflation trends. Both the CPI M/M and the CPI M/M (core) are anticipated to show a 0.3% increase, similar to the previous readings of 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively. The CPI Y/Y and the CPI Y/Y (core) are expected to remain steady at 3.1% and 5.0%, respectively, in line with the prior figures of 4.0% and 5.3%.
Thursday, July 13, will see the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) for June. The PPI M/M and PPI M/M (core) are forecasted to show a 0.2% increase, with the previous readings of -0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. The PPI Y/Y and PPI Y/Y (core) data are not available, while the Treasury Budget for June will provide information on year-to-year changes in tax receipts and outlays. No estimates are provided for the Treasury Budget report.
Lastly, on Friday, July 14, the US will release the Import Price Index M/M and the Export Price Index M/M for June. The Import Price Index is not forecasted, while the consensus estimate for the Export Price Index suggests no change, contrasting the prior reading of -1.9%. Additionally, the preliminary reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment for July is projected to be 65.5, surpassing the previous figure of 64.4.
- On Monday, July 3, 2023, there is a Canadian event where the markets will be closed in observance of Canada Day.
- On Tuesday, July 4, 2023, there is another Canadian event involving an auction for 3-month bills worth $11.6 billion, 6-month bills worth $4.2 billion, and 1-year bills worth $4.2 billion.
- Wednesday, July 5, 2023, will have a Canadian event featuring an auction for 5-year Canadas worth $5 billion.
- Thursday, July 6, 2023, will see a Canadian event at 8:30 AM related to the merchandise trade balance for May (H). The CIBC estimates the balance to be $1.2 billion, while there is no consensus or prior data available.
- Friday, July 7, 2023, will have three Canadian events. At 8:30 AM, there will be an announcement about the employment change for June (H), which is expected to show an increase of 20,000 jobs. There is no consensus or prior data available. Additionally, at the same time, the unemployment rate for June (H) will be released, with an anticipated rate of 5.2%, but no consensus data is available. Lastly, at 10:00 AM, the IVEY PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) for June (L) will be reported, but no specific estimates or prior data are provided.
- On Monday, July 3, 2023, the US will have two events in the morning. At 9:45 AM, there will be the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for June, with a previous value of 46.3. At 10:00 AM, the ISM - Manufacturing data for June will be released, with a CIBC estimate of 47.5 and a consensus estimate of 47.1, compared to a prior value of 46.9. Additionally, the Construction Spending month-on-month (M/M) data for May will be released at 10:00 AM, with a consensus estimate of 0.4%.
- On Tuesday, July 4, 2023, there will be no events in the US as markets will be closed in observance of Independence Day.
- On Wednesday, July 5, 2023, the US will have three events at 10:00 AM. The Factory Orders M/M data for May is expected to show a 0.9% increase. The Durable Goods Orders M/M data for May and Durable Goods Orders Ex-Trans M/M data for May will also be released, but no specific estimates are provided.
- On Thursday, July 6, 2023, the US will have several events in the morning. These include MBA Applications data for June 30, ADP Employment Change for June (estimated at 250K), Initial Claims data for July 1, Continuing Claims data for June 24, and Goods & Services Trade Balance data for May (estimated at -$68.9B). In addition, there will be S&P Global US Services PMI and S&P Global US Composite PMI for June, but no specific estimates are provided. At 10:00 AM, the JOLTS Job Openings data for May will be released, and the ISM - Services data for June is estimated to be 50.8, slightly higher than the prior value of 50.3. There will also be a speaker, Lorie K. Logan, at 8:45 AM.
- On Friday, July 7, 2023, the US will have several events at 8:30 AM. These include Non-Farm Payrolls for June (estimated at 185K), Unemployment Rate for June (estimated at 3.7%), Average Hourly Earnings for All Employees M/M for June (estimated at 0.3%), Average Weekly Hours for All Employees in June (34.3), and Manufacturing Payrolls for June (estimated at 5K).
