Economic Update | APRIL 2024

This month, Ginger Chambless, Head of Research for JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking, provides perspective into the latest stats on labor, inflation, commodities and other factors affecting the economy.

For a weekly dive into the latest economic and market data, check out our Economic and Market Update.

Economy: Business surveys point to early cyclical recovery in manufacturing

Despite business conditions near cycle lows, readings above 50 for manufacturing in March indicates expansion. This has not been the case since September 2022.

Labor: There are some regional differences in labor market strength

Unemployment remains near historical lows overall while some regional differences exist. Internal migration patterns and relative economic activity are factors.

Inflation: Progress continuing in a very gradual manner

Inflation is a major factor in the Fed’s decision making around interest rates. Given the slow improvement towards its targeted 2% level, we do not see the Fed in a rush to cut rates.

Commodities: Industrial metals slightly lower year to date, copper up

With rising optimism around China’s economic outlook, paired with the potential for output cuts, copper prices have rallied even as broader industrial metals have modestly declined.

Interest rates: Path for rate cuts expected to be very gradual

Our forecast for three 25bp rate cuts in 2024 aligns with the FOMC’s median forecast. We think the first rate cut could be June at the earliest.

Supply Chain: Baltimore port disruption unlikely to have lasting impact

Disruptions at the Port of Baltimore following the bridge collapse should not have a lasting impact on economic activity or inflation as there is sufficient capacity at East Coast ports for diverted cargo.

 © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC. Chase, J.P. Morgan, JPMorgan and JPMorgan Chase are marketing names for certain businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its subsidiaries worldwide (collectively, “JPMC”). The material contained herein is intended as general market commentary. To the extent indices have been used in this commentary, please note that it is not possible to invest directly in an index. The views, opinions, estimates and strategies, as the case may be (“views”), expressed herein are those of Virginia Chambless and/or the other respective authors and speakers named in this piece and may differ from those of other JPMC employees and affiliates. These views are often based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not be treated as such. Further, the views expressed herein may differ from that contained in J.P. Morgan research reports. The above summary/prices/quotes/statistics have been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness. Visit jpmorgan.com/cb-disclaimer for full disclosures and disclaimers related to this content.