Ecuador: Noboa to win first round of presidential elections, but runoff to be needed

• Pres Noboa leads first-round voting intentions but falls short of the support needed to secure an outright victory
• Uncertainty is still high as polls indicate citizens are undecided, Noboa's advantage is modest in comparison
• Runoff scenario is harder to predict due to the lack of polls, trend suggest Noboa will win

Ecuadorians will go to the polls on Feb 9 to vote in the first round of the general elections. The campaign period is only one month. It started on Jan 5. This raised some concerns as citizens have had limited time to familiarize themselves with the candidate's proposals. Sixteen presidential tickets were registered with the National Electoral Council (CNE). Some of them are familiar faces from the 2021 and 2023 elections. The elected president and vice-president will hold office until May 2029.

These elections take place in a challenging environment as the country faces a wave of violence, an economic crisis, protests from indigenous communities, and an energy crisis. President Daniel Noboa is the favorite to win, according to the limited polls published recently. To win in the first round, an absolute majority or 40% with a 10pps margin over the second candidate is needed. A second round will probably be needed; if so, it will be held on Apr 13. The only presidential debate is scheduled for Jan 19.

Main Candidates

Daniel Noboa/María José Pinto (National Democratic Action, ADN)

Daniel Noboa is the current president and a former member of the National Assembly. He is the son of Álvaro Noboa, a prominent businessman who has participated several times in the presidential race with a promise to boost the country's GDP and transform the productive sector. Noboa identifies himself as liberal, stressing his belief in economic progress and the free market. In 2023, his chances to win seemed limited, but he won the runoff with 52% of the votes. Noboa will complete the shortened term of President Guillermo Lasso, after he dissolved the National Assembly in May 2023. Domestic laws allowed him to run again in 2025 for a four-year term.

Noboa has faced high public spending marked by expected declines in oil revenues, notably due to the closure of the Yasuní ITT oil field in 2024 following a referendum. Indeed, Ecuadorians decided to stop oil exploitation in the ITT field, leading to an annual revenue reduction of at least USD 1,200mn, according to government estimates. Additionally, the impending "El Niño" weather phenomenon affected many of the country's key industries. A historic drought caused a water and energy crisis that hurt households and several sectors of the economy.

Noboa proposes the continuity of his political project to strengthen the development process of "a new Ecuador". He vowed to boost non-traditional renewable energy sources, optimize the use and consumption of electricity in the generation and supply chain through regulation and implementation of technological innovation; design and implement public security policies, and promote economic diversification.

Luisa González/Diego Borja (Citizen Revolution Movement, RC)

Luisa González is a lawyer and former member of the National Assembly. She represents the left-wing Citizen Revolution movement, led by former President Rafael Correa (2007-2017). Noboa's political stance is based on his contrast with Correaism and, thus, with González. González promises to restore and restructure ministries and clean the Police and the Armed Forces to regain control of the prison system in the country. She promotes a change to the security strategy, strenghtening the capacity of investigation and prosecution of crime, fighting impunity and protecting the victims. On the economic side, González seeks to promote the transition towards a post-oil economy through participation in manufacturing and technology industries. She also promises to review subsidy policies to prioritize the agriculture and transport sectors.

Leonidas Iza/Katiuska Molina (Pachakutik Movement)

Leonidas Iza is the president of the Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE), the largest indigenous rights organization in the country. He is to campaign on cooperation between security forces, autonomous governments, and communities. Iza also promises to strengthen the Police and the Armed Forces, implementing measures against criminal groups. He also wants to strengthen control at borders, ports, and airports. On the economic side, Iza proposes to renegotiate with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), recover public companies, strengthen the public banking system, and increase labor rights.

Carlos Xavier Rabascall/Alejandra Rivas (Democratic Left, ID)

Carlos Rabascall is a journalist and a political consultant. He was a vice-presidential candidate in 2021. He is considering fiscal reform, optimization of public spending, and access to international financing. On the security side, Rabascall proposes to strengthen the Police and resume the institutionality of the penitentiary system, including the modernization of prisons. He also wants the creation of an intelligence agency to consolidate international agreements. He proposes a reform of the judicial system.

Jaime Antonio Jairala/Lucía Vallecilla (Democratic Center)

Jaime Jairala, also known as Jimmy Jairala, is the current leader of the Democratic Center Movement (CD). He was prefect of the Guayas Province during the period 2009-2018 and a member of the National Congress in 2007. He campaigns on the optimization of the tax burden, the promotion of non-traditional exports, attracting investments, and alternative forms of employment. On the security side, Jairala proposes to combine preventive strategies and direct combat against organized crime groups. He also wants to increase investment in social programs to prevent recruitment by mafias.

Opinion Polls

All pollsters put Pres Noboa heading the voting intentions, giving him a one-digit lead over González. However, lla polls agree that he doesn't have the voting intention to win outright.

Leftist Luisa González is second in the polls. González's voting intention rose strongly recently, amid the energy crisis and the violence wave. González benefits the most from the president's missteps and should gain strenght if energy, violence or economic conditions worsen.

This is clearly a two-horse race at this point. We are confident the president and the candidate of correaism will be advancing to a runoff.

Polls suggest indigenous leader Leonidas Iza is in third place with a voting intention below 5%.

The number of blank and undecided votes is high, reaching double digits in the averaged results of five polls. This is unsurprising, given the unfamiliarity of the electorate most of the candidates and the energy, water, economic, and violence crisis.

In a runoff, we expect the leftist opposition to unify against Noboa. This anti-Noboa sentiment became more pronounced following the energy crisis and the political turmoil caused by Noboa's decision not to completely leave office to campaign. Though there are no polls for runoffs, the trend suggests that Noboa will defeat the left again.

Public insecurity and energy crisis will be priorities for the next administration

Crime rates remain at an alarming level. Even though the homicide rate fell to 40 homicides per 100,000 people in 2024, from 47 in 2023, Ecuador remains as one of the most violent countries in the region. In addition, the internal power struggle within prisons has resulted in continuous riots leaving hundreds of deaths. Pres Noboa has announced plans to construct two maximum-security prisons modeled after one established by President Nayib Bukele in El Salvador. Noboa has also decided to implement the militarization of hot zones through the declaration of an internal armed conflict and state of emergency in several cities. Civil society groups have criticized these measures since they facilitate human rights abuses.

At the same time, the country has faced one of the driest seasons in the last 60 years, mainly in the south where the national hydroelectric system is concentrated. Although the country has a generation capacity of 7,500 MGW installed, most of that generation comes from hydroelectric plants, which drastically reduced their operation during the dry season. The country faced 50 consecutive days of intense drought. Power cuts in the country lasted for up to 14 hours daily, mainly hurting small and medium companies. Experts said Ecuador was in the dark for a total time equivalent to 28 days due to the severe drought and the lack of investment in the power sector. Ecuador has a deficit of 1,100 MW. Colombia is selling up to 450 MW at a time, but there are no guarantees that Colombia will continue selling power for long. In 2024, Colombia stopped two times the sale of electricity due to the drought. Some 23 thermoelectric engines have been put into operation. Noboa has noted his government has invested more than USD 700mn in reactivating the thermoelectric system, pointing out it had not been repaired since 2020. The energy crisis has not been overcome despite the efforts made by the government.

Congressional elections

In the upcoming elections, citizens will also vote to elect a new National Assembly, composed of 151 members. In the previous Assembly, elected in 2023, the Citizens' Revolution movement, the Social Christian Party, the National Democratic Action, and other minor parties formed a legislative majority. This helped Noboa to govern as he has had the support to pass some proposals to tackle violence and structural measures. There is an expectation that this trend will continue, given that most lawmakers are running for re-election.

VOTING AND RESULTS

Voting will run from 7:00 to 17:00 local time on Feb 9. The CNE foresees that the first results of the presidential and legislative elections will begin to arrive a few hours after the closing of the polls. Voting in Ecuador is mandatory, and if somebody does not show up, he/she will have to pay a fine equivalent to 10% of a basic unified salary. The CNE expects that some 13.7mn of Ecuadorians will vote in February.