EGS is not the problem, CS is

EGS is not the problem, CS is

John MacRobert, April 2024

There is a common refrain amongst donor and NGO fora that Early Generation Seed (EGS) is the major bottleneck for increasing quality seed availability to farmers. Now, of course, EGS is vitally necessary, and is a significant factor in the seed value chain, but it is not the weakest link or biggest constraint in that chain. Sure, there have been cases where there was inadequate EGS, but this has mostly been through bad planning, poor management or environmental vagaries. I will contend here that Certified Seed (CS) production is the major limitation to making more quality seed available to farmers, and therefore needs proportionately more attention than EGS.

The seed chain begins with variety development and registration. Following variety registration with the National Seed Authority, certified seed production may proceed. However, the time to seed availability is a multi-season process moving through three, or, usually, four stages, viz., Breeders’ Seed, Pre-Basic, Basic, and then Certified Seed (or Quality Declared Seed in some cases). The scale-up of seed quantities is a function of the seed multiplication rate, i.e., the amount of seed produced relative to the amount of seed sown.

The seed multiplication rate is largely determined by the crop, although environment and management obviously also play a part. Nevertheless, taking these as non-limiting, seed scale up for some typical field crops is given (Table 1), assuming that the aim is to produce sufficient CS to sow 100,000 ha of each crop. Typical and conservative seeding rates and seed yields are used for the calculations. The amount of CS required is vastly greater than the total amount of EGS, although there are differences between crops. For example, maize requires 2,500 t of CS to sow 100,000 ha but this can be produced from less than 25 t of EGS. Indeed, the total EGS requirements are less than 10 % of the CS needed in each crop, even down to 1 % for maize and sorghum. Soybeans and Dry Beans require greater quantities of EGS because of their relatively lower seed multiplication rates than Maize, Sorghum or Rice. Thus, in these crops, and with other similar crops having low multiplication rates (e.g., groundnuts and cowpeas), it is sometimes necessary to produce two or three further cycles of CS (CS2 and CS3) or Quality Declared Seed to achieve sufficient seed for large scale commercial sowings.

Table 1: Seed requirements at each stage of the seed chain to produce sufficient Certified Seed to sow 100,000 ha of a selected number of crops (assuming no carry-over or surplus production at each stage, and typical, conservative seeding rates and seed yields).

The relatively small quantity of EGS required compared to the quantity of CS for a given target planting area is also reflected in the significantly lower cost of EGS compared to CS (Table 2). Whatever the crop, the total cost of EGS ranges from 2 to 14 % of the total cost of CS.  The cost of producing CS for 100,000 ha of planted crop is greatest for Dry Beans ($16,000,000) and least for Sorghum ($600,000), whereas the cost of EGS is about $2,3 million and $15,000, respectively. Therefore, seed companies have to invest significantly more into CS production than EGS to meet the market demands.

Table 2: The cost of producing EGS and CS based on the quantities required to produce 100,000 ha of commercial crop (derived from Table 1) and the cost of each component, and the total cost of EGS as a percent of CS (assuming typical and conservative costs of seed).

These two aspects of producing and financing the seed value chain illustrates that EGS is not the constraint in making certified seed available for farmers. But this can also be looked at from the area of seed production required. The small quantities of EGS required for CS production requires relatively small areas of land compared to the area of land required for CS. Although EGS production usually requires greater distance isolation than for CS production, especially for maize and other open pollenated crops, this presents less of a constraint than finding the large areas for CS production. For example, the total area required to produce all the EGS in Table 1 is about 700 ha, but more than 15,000 ha for the CS production. In many parts of Africa, farms are small and densely associated, and so finding sufficient isolation for CS production is difficult, unless farmers’ fields can be consolidated.

My argument that support for CS production is more important than for EGS to make quality seed available to farmers does not minimize the importance of producing EGS. Indeed, seed companies ought to be willing to spend whatever is necessary to secure quality and sufficient EGS, because the return on such investment is great. Take the case of hybrid maize in the tables above.  If a seed company spends $150,000 on EGS, the return is in the order of $5 million, if 2,500 t of seed is sold at $2000/t. Thus, investment and attention to EGS is vital and profitable.

In conclusion, to scale-up production of quality seed in Africa, more attention needs to be placed on financing and facilitating certified seed production than simply addressing the need for EGS production. Seed companies, especially those that are emerging and in the early stages of establishment, find it difficult to scale production because of the great amount of working capital needed to finance CS production, while it is oftentimes also hard to find the land required. Thus, EGS is not the greatest problem, but CS is, when it comes to meeting the quality seed needs of farmers in Africa. Seed companies need finance and land to produce CS, and this is where stakeholders ought to give the greatest attention.