El Niño & Its Impacts on Cruising

Since I live about an hour from Port Canaveral, it’s fairly common to have friends who hop on a weekend cruise to the Bahamas or take a week-long vacation to the Caribbean Islands rather than booking a staycation at a theme park or a ski trip out west.

Being within driving distance is a huge benefit for last-minute cruisers and those looking to save money on airline tickets. And now that Carnival Cruise Line is one of my clients, I am paying particular attention to cruising weather and maritime storms.

My friends who work for cruise lines tell me that this winter has been especially challenging for planning. Often weather impacts a ship’s itinerary during hurricane season, but usually during the winter months, the weather is much calmer across the popular cruise destinations: Mexico, Latin America, The Caribbean, and The Bahamas.

This winter, though, things have been different. Several ships (and not just Carnival) have had to change itineraries or ports of call due to storms, rain, rough surf or swells.

It’s not random. It’s El Niño.

WHAT IS EL NIÑO?

You’ve probably heard of El Niño and La Niña. Yes, they are Spanish words meaning “The Little Boy” and “The Little Girl.” But they are also names of centuries old weather phenomena which impact the weather and climate around the world.

The water in the Pacific Ocean, off the coast of South America, fluctuates between warmer than average temperatures (El Niño), cooler than average temperatures (La Niña) and a neutral phase when temperatures are within one degree of “normal.”

The El Niño, shortened from The El Niño Southern Oscillation (or ENSO), is more common than La Niña. It usually lasts about nine months to a year but can sometimes last for several years.

HOW DOES EL NIÑO CHANGE WEATHER?

When this natural warming of ocean water occurs, it affects the location of the Pacific Ocean’s jet stream, a narrow band of wind flowing west to east several miles above the Earth’s surface. There are four primary global jet streams that help steer storms and moisture.

When a jet stream moves to a different location, it shifts storms and moisture into different locations.

Various parts of the world are impacted in various ways when the Pacific jet stream moves during an El Niño phase. Each El Niño is unique, but when you average out the weather during the winter months, there are patterns that emerge. 

Here are a few examples:

• The northern U.S. is typically warmer and drier. This doesn’t mean there are no frigid, cold snaps or large snowstorms, but overall, December through February are warmer and drier than average.

• Southern states in the U.S. tend to get more snow and stronger severe thunderstorms during an El Niño winter. They are generally cooler and wetter than average with occasional warm days or dry stretches.

• Alaska and Northwest Canada tend to have milder winters with less snow.

• The Caribbean Islands and Latin America often get stronger storms and excessive rain which can lead to flooding.

• In Central America severe drought in the west and excessive rain in the east are typical patterns during an El Niño winter.

• Australia and Indonesia experience drought and wildfire-prone conditions.

None of this information should keep you from booking a cruise this winter or spring. In fact, I have just finished booking a cruise for my daughter and me over spring break next month. It simply means that you should stay flexible, like you are when you cruise during hurricane season, in case the constantly fluid weather impacted by El Niño forces your ship to change course.

I’m learning a lot of great things about Carnival, but one of the best tools they have is their team. They monitor weather 24/7 in the Fleet Operations Center in Miami and keep in constant, direct contact with each ship’s Captain and crew to ensure everyone on board is safe.

So book your cruise! I’ll see you at the Port.

WHAT’S NEXT?

• Early forecasts show that El Niño will end by summer and transition back to a neutral phase. What happens next? I'll keep you posted.