Embrace the Unknown - How to Lead in Times of Uncertainty

Recently, I read an interesting interview with Elaine Fox , Director of the Oxford Centre for Emotions and Affective Neuroscience (OCEAN). Elaine is an expert in mental agility. Her research involves the science of emotion and what makes some people more resilient than others. Successful people have the ability to accept constant change and to react flexibly to it, she stated. The more flexible people are, the more resilient they are because they consider many different options in unexpected or difficult situations.

I am with her and truly convinced that we need a new skill- and mindset for leaders. Why do we need that? 

We have to acknowledge the pressure - and talk about it!

We all observe the current situation: We see the pictures of the war in Ukraine, we experience inflation, price increases and also disruptive supply chains in many industries: when we reflect on our own human state as an individual, within a family, or within a company – it’s clear that we are living in an age of uncertainty and constant change.

We are in an enormous transformation and leaders, teams, and organizations are simply under pressure. We have to acknowledge that.

And, the pandemic brought consequences with it, partially with longer effects than expected. We cannot yet foresee or estimate some of the long-term consequences in its full intensity.

But one thing is clear: Currently, we see a “staple of crisis”. They may appear one after the other, but they persist simultaneously. In this complexity leadership and resilience counts. Sometimes it seems that any given week reminds us that we cannot control the degree of change, uncertainty, instability, and complexity we face. We have to reflect on our role as leaders.

In this article, I will share my views on how to lead through times of uncertainty. How to be able to be a strong and empathic decision maker and problem-solver even in times of constant change and volatile market environments.

Embrace the Change

First, embrace the change. Embrace the discomfort of not knowing as an expected and normal part of the learning process. Often, I read that leaders must shift from a “know it all” to a “learn it all” mindset. This shift in mindset helps to ease the discomfort by taking the pressure off you. Especially in times of uncertainty, do you know one person who has all the answers? The conclusion: Accept the discomfort of not knowing. And make the best out of it.

But how you may ask? Lead by example. Be a role model and communicate effectively. And last but not least enable resilience. Because as leaders we must guide though this new era of constant change. In the current digital age, we have to emphatically acknowledge the pressure and the speed in which we are shaping our future.

The past months and years have witnessed a completely transformed world. The acronym “VUCA” has gained popularity as a term to cover the various dimensions of this “uncontrollable” environment. VUCA is an acronym that stands for Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous. Our new reality is what futurists are coining BANI: Brittle. Anxious. Non-linear. Incomprehensible.

• What used to be volatile is brittle and no longer reliable.
• What used to feel like uncertainty, has now made way for anxiety 
• Things are not complex anymore, instead they are non-linear.
• What used to be ambiguous appears incomprehensible to us today.

So many of our systems may work well on the surface but dig a little deeper and they are brittle and on the verge of collapse. Our general level of anxiety has led to a state of inertia – where people fear making hard decisions, struggle to think clearly, or perhaps even turn away completely. Our cause-and-effect chain has morphed into something completely non-linear. Small decisions may have disproportionately large impacts. Impacts that may not be felt until generations to come. Impacts that we just don’t know and/or are able to estimate in advance.

Find Possibilities in the Unknown

Together, we will, and we can make sense of the world again. We can use this moment in time as a springboard for doing things differently, and even doing things better. I see clear opportunities for each component of BANI:

What if Brittleness could be met with resilience and capacity?

We need to create space to build fail-safe systems and set the right foundations that withstand the test of time. And we need the resilience and determination to counter existing brittle systems through innovation and ingenuity.

What if Anxiety could be eased with empathy and mindfulness?

When we work from a place of empathy and understanding: of our colleagues, our customers, and of ourselves – we begin to create solutions that meet genuine needs. This sense of mindfulness takes us out of our own heads, and into a place of service and value for the very people we are designing for each and every day.

What if Non-linearity could be better understood with context and adaptability?

So much cause and effect is beyond our own logic anymore. When we have a context, we stay grounded to the task at hand and the field in which we are problem-solving. Adaptability keeps us flexible and open to all possibilities that may arise.

What if we could improve our comprehension with more transparency and intuition?

The volume of data we deal with as a business is staggering. It’s clear that we need to ascribe human knowledge to our analysis and algorithms. We may not understand certain aspects of how AI is learning from us right now, but in the future, it will be critical for us to create further synergies between human and machine intelligence - for more transparency and deeper understanding.

Adopting these elements in daily life will result in a surplus of energy – the very essence of what we need to thrive as individuals, as leaders, as teams, and as a business in our world today.

Our greatest challenge right now is to find our footing in this new world. To have an open mind. To adapt quickly. To stay curious and empathetic. To be an active listener within your team. To establish the concept of “psychological safety”, by Amy Edmondson , within the team. Because it helps, especially in times of uncertainty, to work, think, and be creative in an environment where everyone can freely raise concerns.

Which degree of change and uncertainty we will face tomorrow? We can’t predict the future, but we can prepare for it. This is the personal responsibility of every leader.