The Energy Transition in 2024: A State-of-the-Art Overview

The global energy transition continues to evolve in 2024, with innovations across solar, wind, geothermal, nuclear, and energy storage playing pivotal roles in reducing reliance on fossil fuels. However, this transformation faces challenges, with different regions investing at varying levels, leading to imbalances, particularly in key industries like automotive manufacturing. China, in particular, has emerged as a leader in clean energy investment, while Europe faces internal difficulties that have impacted its earlier commitments to decarbonization.

1. Solar Energy

Solar energy remains one of the most rapidly expanding sources of renewable power. Breakthroughs in perovskite solar cells have pushed efficiency to new heights, exceeding 30%. These advances promise to lower costs and expand solar’s geographical range by making it a more efficient option even in less sunny regions. Floating solar farms (floatovoltaics) are also gaining traction globally, particularly in regions with limited land availability.

China continues to dominate the solar sector, accounting for more than 40% of global solar installations. In 2024, China invested heavily in expanding its domestic solar production capacity and in exporting technologies to other regions. This significant investment has positioned the country as a global leader, while Europe’s solar ambitions have been slower to materialize.

Top Players:

• First Solar (U.S.): A leader in the development and manufacturing of thin-film solar modules. First Solar continues to push technological boundaries with its cost-effective, durable panels.
• LONGi Green Energy (China): One of the largest manufacturers of monocrystalline silicon photovoltaic products globally, LONGi is expanding both domestically and internationally.
• JinkoSolar (China): Another major player, JinkoSolar, focuses on large-scale solar power projects and cutting-edge bifacial solar panels for enhanced efficiency.

2. Wind Energy

The most notable technological trend in wind energy is the floating offshore wind farm, which has expanded to deeper ocean waters, previously inaccessible. Artificial intelligence (AI) is also being integrated into turbines for predictive maintenance and performance optimization, significantly improving uptime and efficiency.

Top Players:

• Vestas Wind Systems (Denmark): A dominant player in both onshore and offshore wind, Vestas leads in turbine innovation and global market share.
• Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy (Spain/Germany): Specializes in offshore wind turbines, playing a significant role in Europe’s and Asia’s wind energy expansion.
• GE Renewable Energy (U.S.): Known for the Haliade-X, the world’s largest offshore wind turbine, GE is pushing the envelope in both capacity and efficiency.

3. Geothermal Energy

Geothermal energy is emerging as a key player in providing baseload power, capable of generating electricity continuously, unlike intermittent sources like solar and wind. In 2024, breakthroughs in superhot rock energy and millimeter-wave drilling have made it possible to tap ultra-deep geothermal resources, allowing for more efficient and powerful energy generation.

While geothermal projects are advancing globally, they are still largely concentrated in regions with significant investment, like North America and parts of Asia. Europe has been slower to embrace geothermal energy, though growing interest in advanced geothermal systems (AGS) is beginning to change the landscape. With the right incentives, geothermal could fill a crucial gap in the continent’s energy mix, complementing wind and solar.

Top Players:

• Ormat Technologies (U.S.): A global leader in geothermal energy, Ormat develops and operates geothermal power plants around the world. Their innovative solutions, particularly the Ormat Energy Converter and their work in binary cycle plants and energy storage, ensure they remain a key player in helping the global transition to sustainable, reliable energy.
• Eavor Technologies (Canada): A pioneer in closed-loop geothermal systems, Eavor’s Eavor-Loop™ technology is revolutionizing the industry by making geothermal energy scalable without the need for traditional geological conditions. A key element of Eavor's innovation is its fluid isolation technology, which uses a closed-loop system to extract heat from deep within the Earth without any interaction with subsurface fluids or geological formations. This system eliminates the need for fracking or the use of aquifers, making it an environmentally safer option. At the core of this system is Eavor’s Rock-Pipe™ technology, which creates a barrier between the geothermal loop and the surrounding rock formations. This allows for efficient heat transfer while maintaining full isolation of the working fluid, ensuring that the geothermal process is entirely sealed off from the environment. By keeping the working fluid isolated, Eavor’s system mitigates risks like aquifer contamination, subsidence, or earthquakes, which are challenges often associated with traditional geothermal systems. Additionally, this method ensures that the system can be deployed in regions where traditional geothermal methods would not be feasible, thus expanding the geographical range where geothermal energy can be harvested.
• Quaise Energy (U.S.): Known for its millimeter-wave drilling technology, Quaise is working to access geothermal energy at depths previously unreachable, tapping into superhot rock energy. What sets Quaise apart from traditional geothermal companies is its unique use of millimeter-wave drilling. This technique involves gyrotrons, a type of electromagnetic wave generator that can vaporize hard rock as deep as 20 kilometers below the Earth's surface, allowing access to heat sources that were previously unreachable with conventional drilling methods. This technology is seen as a potential game-changer because it could access superhot rock zones, which contain geothermal energy far more powerful than current shallow geothermal resources. In contrast to traditional drilling, which becomes increasingly difficult and expensive the deeper you go, Quaise’s gyrotron-based drilling system eliminates the mechanical limitations of standard drill bits. By using electromagnetic energy to melt rock, the system can drill deeper without wear and tear, making ultra-deep geothermal not only technically feasible but also economically viable. The key goal of Quaise’s approach is to tap into superhot rock energy, which refers to geothermal resources found at extreme depths where temperatures exceed 400°C. When water is circulated through these rocks, it is converted into supercritical steam—a state of water that exists at very high temperatures and pressures and has significantly higher energy potential than normal steam used in power plants. The energy produced from supercritical steam can be 10 times more efficient than that of conventional geothermal energy.

4. Energy Storage & Batteries

Advances in energy storage are essential to the success of the energy transition. While lithium-ion batteries remain dominant, solid-state batteries are gaining momentum due to their higher energy density, faster charging times, and increased safety. QuantumScape and other innovators are leading efforts to commercialize solid-state technology, which could revolutionize both electric vehicles and grid-scale storage.

China’s role in this sector is also noteworthy. It has invested heavily in battery manufacturing and controls much of the global supply chain for battery materials such as lithium and cobalt. This has placed China ahead in the race for energy storage dominance, while Europe, despite its early ambitions, has fallen behind. Internal divisions, delayed policy execution, and the revisiting of earlier commitments have slowed progress, putting pressure on European automakers who are trying to meet new emissions standards.

Top Players:

• QuantumScape (U.S.): A leader in the development of solid-state batteries, QuantumScape’s technology promises higher energy density and faster charging, key for electric vehicles (EVs) and grid storage
• CATL (China): As the world’s largest battery manufacturer, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL) supplies batteries for both EVs and grid storage and is heavily investing in new technologies like sodium-ion and solid-state batteries.
• Solid Power (U.S.): Another major player in the solid-state battery race, Solid Power is working on automotive-grade batteries with leading automakers like BMW.

5. Nuclear Energy

Nuclear energy continues to evolve as a reliable source of baseload power with minimal emissions. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) have gained considerable attention for their ability to be deployed flexibly, at a lower cost than traditional reactors. Countries like Canada, the U.S., and the UK are making significant investments in SMR technology.

Nuclear fusion also continues to show promise. In 2024, private companies working on fusion energy, such as Helion Energy and Commonwealth Fusion Systems, achieved key milestones toward making net energy gain a reality. Although commercial fusion is still years away, these developments provide hope for a future where fusion could become a major source of clean, limitless energy.

At Idaho National Laboratory's Fuel Conditioning Facility, spent nuclear fuel is being recycled into fuel for Oklo's Aurora powerhouse, marking a significant advancement in the use of recovered nuclear material for commercial purposes. This innovation underscores Oklo’s commitment to sustainable nuclear energy. Recently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) approved Oklo's Conceptual Safety Design Report (CSDR) for its Aurora Fuel Fabrication Facility—a key milestone that brings Oklo closer to deploying its Aurora micro-reactor, which will be powered by this recycled fuel. Additionally, Oklo has entered into a Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) with the DOE Idaho Operations Office, granting it access to conduct site investigations for its future reactor at a preferred location in Idaho, advancing the project toward construction and deployment. These milestones highlight Oklo's pioneering approach in nuclear fuel recycling, positioning nuclear energy as a sustainable and critical part of the global energy transition.

Top Players:

• NuScale Power (U.S.): The leader in the development of SMRs, NuScale has received regulatory approval for its reactor designs, with projects planned in the U.S. and abroad.
• Terrestrial Energy (Canada): Focuses on the development of Integral Molten Salt Reactors (IMSRs), offering a safer and more flexible alternative to traditional reactors.
• Commonwealth Fusion Systems (U.S.): Leading the push toward nuclear fusion, this MIT spinoff has made significant progress toward achieving net energy gain in fusion reactors.

6. Global Capital Expenditure and the Role of China

The financial commitment to the energy transition continues to grow exponentially. In 2024, global investment in renewable energy, energy storage, and related technologies is expected to surpass $1.7 trillion, according to data from BloombergNEF with the largest contributions coming from China, which leads the world in investments in renewables, energy storage, and electric vehicles.

China’s Clean Energy Dominance

China has emerged as the largest global producer of solar panels, wind turbines, and critical components for lithium-ion batteries, which are vital for electric vehicles (EVs) and energy storage. This dominance stems from extensive government subsidies and state-directed investments aimed at turning China into the global hub for renewable technologies. These efforts have allowed Chinese companies to achieve economies of scale and leverage lower production costs, positioning them as the most competitive players in the global clean energy market.

By aggressively expanding into the clean energy sector, China has not only secured its own energy transition but has also become a major exporter of renewable technologies, which puts significant competitive pressure on companies in the U.S. and Europe. Western competitors often find themselves unable to match China’s lower prices, which has resulted in an influx of Chinese-made solar panels, batteries, and other renewable technologies into global markets.

U.S. and EU Responses: Protectionism and Uncertainty

In an attempt to counter China’s dominance, both the U.S. and European Union have implemented protectionist trade policies designed to protect their domestic industries. For instance, the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) includes provisions to subsidize clean energy technologies and electric vehicles produced domestically while imposing tariffs and restrictions on imports from China. Similarly, the EU has introduced measures such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to shield European industries from being undercut by cheaper Chinese products.

However, in Europe, the situation has been especially difficult. Under Ursula von der Leyen’s leadership, significant attention has been diverted to managing geopolitical tensions and sanctions related to the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Critics argue that this focus on external politics has resulted in neglect of Europe’s most pressing energy needs. Instead of prioritizing the development of sustainable energy infrastructure to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, von der Leyen's policies have left Europe vulnerable to energy crises and supply chain shocks, especially in light of its historical reliance on Russian energy imports.

The failure to adequately prepare for Europe’s energy future has allowed China to consolidate its lead in critical areas like solar panels, wind energy, and battery technology, while Europe is left grappling with inconsistent policies and delays in meeting its energy transition goals.

Impact on the Automotive Industry

Nowhere is this more evident than in the automotive sector, which is at the heart of Europe’s electrification efforts. Europe’s inadequate policy responses have left automakers like Volkswagen, BMW, and even American companies like Tesla facing significant challenges in securing battery supplies as they attempt to localize production. Navigating trade barriers and supply chain disruptions related to China has further complicated their ability to scale up EV production.

Furthermore, von der Leyen’s administration has failed to develop adequate infrastructure, such as fast charging networks for EVs. European cities, particularly those with historical layouts and limited space, face serious challenges in providing convenient charging solutions. Many consumers who would otherwise consider switching to EVs are unable to do so due to the lack of charging infrastructure and high costs associated with the charging services that do exist.

Charging Infrastructure Shortfalls

The existing charging infrastructure in Europe is also problematic. The cost of charging in some regions has become prohibitively expensive, even exceeding the costs of refueling traditional gasoline-powered vehicles. This severely undermines one of the key financial incentives of switching to electric cars. The absence of consistent pricing regulation and the dominance of private companies in the charging market have led to high prices and limited competition, exacerbating the challenges.

Unlike the U.S., where the Inflation Reduction Act provides robust incentives for both EV buyers and charging infrastructure development, Europe under von der Leyen has failed to deliver the necessary policy frameworks to make EV adoption financially attractive or feasible for the average consumer. The result is a patchwork of national policies across EU member states, leading to significant regional disparities where EV charging is easily accessible in some areas and almost nonexistent in others.

A Fragmented Approach and Missed Opportunities

Ursula von der Leyen’s handling of Europe’s energy transition has been widely criticized for its short-sightedness and fragmented approach. The lack of coherent and effective policies on critical infrastructure, such as fast charging networks, and the over-reliance on geopolitical distractions like the Ukraine-Russia conflict, have left Europe trailing behind China and the United States in the global clean energy race. This failure to adequately prepare for the long-term challenges of energy independence will likely have lasting consequences for Europe’s competitiveness in key industries, particularly the automotive sector, which is already struggling to navigate the uncertainties created by von der Leyen’s leadership.

Europe must take immediate and decisive action to rectify these shortcomings, or it risks falling further behind in the global energy transition, a development that will have profound economic and political implications over the coming decades.

Energy has always been, and will remain, a central element of geopolitical dynamics.

The energy transition in 2024 highlights this reality, as technological advancements are moving forward at a rapid pace, but investment and policy frameworks are unevenly distributed across different regions. China has solidified its position as a global leader through substantial capital investment and aggressive technology deployment in clean energy sectors. Meanwhile, Europe is grappling with political and economic challenges that risk undermining its leadership in renewable energy, making it harder to keep pace with global competitors.

Looking ahead, the success of the energy transition will require not just technological innovation, but coordinated global efforts to ensure balanced growth and policy support across regions. Only through such collaboration can the energy transition truly transform the global energy landscape.

Special thanks to Eavor Technologies for mentioning me in their media articles. Their acknowledgment highlights our shared vision in promoting innovative energy solutions, particularly in the field of geothermal energy. Eavor Technologies' cutting-edge contributions to the energy transition, through their scalable geothermal technology, are a crucial part of advancing clean energy solutions globally. It’s an honor to be recognized alongside their efforts in this transformative sector.