Entering the unknown...

As I’ve been operating my Goodness Gracious Cafes through the pandemic I have found (and despite the constantly evolving environment) there have been many consistencies in how one could operate. In many instances the frequency of challenges directly correlated to the health measures put in place, to mitigate the risk and rate of covid spread.  

The consistent aspects have been no international tourists, limited returning citizens, having most of the general population confined to respective areas and regions, mask use, checking in, social distancing and financial support.

So, for the most part it has felt you would get a 4-8week run before the next set of health measures would come into place. A lot of this was due to the now defunct Level system and in part to our ability (by luck or design?) in keeping rates of infection and economic impact minimal compared to many other countries.  Despite feeling as though you can only plan four weeks ahead, there was a level of assurance and steadiness found within that. 

After a culturally and socially challenging period of vaccine mandates, we have transitioned to the traffic light framework, there is an awareness that this is now the most unknown part of the pandemic journey for our hospitality industry.

In the health context covid has in essence been contained locally to Auckland, only recently having some wider and early stage seeded regional spread. With the bulk of the infections in Auckland and with borders opening shortly it is likely that we will witness the furthest spread in our country.

With very high vaccination rates in some parts and less than desired in others, the holiday season with associated gatherings and events; it remains to be seen whether this will translate to the highest rates of infections and subsequently hospitalisations and potentially deaths yet seen in our community.

In the economic context, in Auckland there’s a sense that once the borders are open there will be dramatically quiet trade as centres are exited due to a pent-up urge to escape and be able to travel locally once again.  In conjunction with operating initially in red and the limitations this has on trade and nearly all the non-customer facing workforce still working from home, families juggling staggered school schedules it has spelt a very mixed bag for the local hospitality industry. In most cases it is leaving the run up to Christmas very different to the traditional Xmas splurge.

Come mid-January how the country is positioned health wise will determine further economic impact with the influence on the keenness of offices and schools to return and “normal” economic activity taking place. So it is a very real prospect that any indulgent summer activity will be subdued.  In the back of operator’s minds is the very real likelihood of infections within the workplace and what impact this must have on ability to keep a business open when affected staff are required to isolate for up to two weeks at a time.

By mid to late summer it appears highly probable the new Omicron variant will likely have found its way here and into the community. With the very early analysis it does looks promising to be the way out of the pandemic with less severe implications and possible herd immunity. Here’s hoping! But with a super high infection rate, it is still conceivable that once it’s seeded within the population and to stem a hospital influx a lockdown or more restrictions within red light will be required....