Escaping oil addiction

Rising tensions between the United States and Iran, and the Australian fire vividly illustrate our interest in accelerating an exit strategy from oil dependency. The death of General Soleimani followed the bombing by drones of Saudi oil installations in September, a bombing aimed at destabilizing the Saudi national hydrocarbon company Aramco and increasing the price of black gold. Our oil supplies also depend on the situation in Irak which is, with 4.5 million barrels a day, the fifth oil producer country in the world right before Iran and far after Russia.

Moreover, these supplies are largely dependent on the explosive situation in the Strait of Hormuz, where the United States and European countries are trying to enforce a minimum level of security. This is because oil is still the world's main source of primary energy (one third of the energy mix). This explains that our economic growth remains dependent on oil and global geopolitics. Mathieu Plane from the French Economic Observatory (OFCE) reminds that a $10 rise in the barrel run removes 0.1 growth points to French economy after a year and 0.2 points after two years. That is something.

The United States have beaten their foreign oil dependency by becoming themselves the first world producer. This strategy removes the geopolitical aspect of it but worsens the issue of global warming that Australia has so vividly illustrated in recent months. The fact that the Australian fires might have a criminal origin, Australian forests could be badly managed, or fire might be necessary to some ecosystems, obviously does not mean that the problem is not acute, and that global warming is not an aggravating factor.

Globally, 2019 has been the second hottest year (after 2016) since temperature is measured. In Europe, 2019 is a record. CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere is at its highest. It is a tragic irony that Australia is one of the least sophisticated economies in the world because it is essentially based on hydrocarbons. Although GDP per capita is higher than in Europe, Australia's economy is undiversified, and its long-term prospects are bleak. Energy, minerals, metals and agricultural products represent almost all the exports. We understand now why Prime Minister Scott Morrison is climato-skeptic: his country's growth depends on coal, an energy widely used internally and exported. It would be wrong to say that Australia reaps the results of its own energy policy because the causes of climate change are to be studied on a global level. But it can show the consequences.

Some anticapitalists enjoy the Australian opportunity to sell their degrowth speech, pointing the fallacy that "eco-economic decoupling" would be impossible. This point of view omits the fact that decoupling already exists in many countries. We are on the right track but moving too slowly. Thereupon an acceleration should rely on clear and straight-forward priorities and a long-term plan. On the global level, it is clear that electricity production is the most responsible for CO₂ emissions with 40% of total emissions, followed by transports (25%). A consistent strategy would tend to electrify transport and decarbonize electricity. With the current state of technologies, it could not happen without the development of nuclear power that only represents 5% of the global primary energy mix.

The Chinese, who are now obsessed with environmental issues, made no mistake about it. The country counts 46 functional reactors, 11 are being built and two EPR are connected to the grid. The country wants to control the entire value chain of the sector, from uranium supply to waste management. And in the context of the ITER nuclear fusion project, Chinese teams appear to be particularly advanced. If France prevaricates on nuclear power, it will lose out on the environment, the economy and geopolitics. Perhaps it is better to depend on China for energy than on the Gulf countries. But in nuclear energy, France theoretically has the assets to be a leading and independent country.

Translated from l'Express