EU sanctions against Russia, what to think about the outcome to date?

With grace period included in the 11th EU sanction package on certain commodities coming to an end, or already ended, it's timely to assess the outcome of these sanctions. Looking at various commentaries, it's interesting to observe different kind of reactions to the continued growth of the Russian economy.

EU sanctions hurt, byte, and produce effects on Russia and its economy. However, depending where you stand, you can consider the bottle as half-full, or half-empty. This is the frustration expressed by Germany decrying a weak impact.

Meanwhile, others question the missing part of it, and what could be added to the list commodities for having a more efficient sanction regime.

Recent cases disclosed showing that Russia keeps on receiving stockpiles of chips and semi-conductors used in the most advanced missiles could support such approach. With a condition that the diplomatic pressure will remain high on third countries to increase the cost of circumvention.

If Central Asia comes straight forward into the conversation, we would like to recall (as per some recent posts) that more exotic jurisdiction should not be cornerized, as Maldives for instance appears as more than a simple dreaming destination for holidays, and is used as a transit hub for chips coming from Hong-Kong.

The half-full bottle is carried by the one who was telling us in March 2022 that the EU did all what it could. According to Borrell then, sanctions work.

You'll notice that one of the reason is also because companies de-risked, and stopped shipping to Russia instead of using legal provisions allowing to trade with Russia.

Some are also questionning the whole process, maybe it works, but is it at a reasonnable cost? Within the EU complexity, the usual Russian support claims that this cost could destroy Europe.

This commentary started with recalling the end of grace period for some commodities, but oil remains the main source of incomes for the Russian economy, as it is a source of concerns based on the influence deriving from its dependancy.

On that regard, and without requiring any revision of the sanction regime, POLITICO brings some good news in explaining how Lukoil influence in Bulgaria could slightly decrease soon.

Awaiting the next round, we fully endorse Ruta B. statement that the EU should remain firm, and exclude any reward to any oligarch condemning the war.