EURGBP Before the French and UK Elections

The Electoral Calculus poll of poll gives a 94% probability that a Labour majority government will be elected in the UK. Could that result be positive for the Pound?

The first round French elections are held this Sunday June 30th and the second round on July 7th. Brown Brothers Harriman suggest that the election will produce a hung parliament, likely to generate more political instability. Possibly weighing on French bonds and the Euro.

On a technical basis the correction higher from the 0.8397 low on June 14th may be complete and labelled red wave 4. If this is the case, price can now move immediately lower to target 0.8397 and even lower. The medium term targets show targets at 0.8280 and even 0.7975. If the polls are wrong and the elections produce a hung parliament for the UK and a majority for President Macron's Renaissance party we may see an abrupt turn around. Trading above 0.8770 forces consideration of bullish narratives.

However, if the polls are right, could the UK and French elections fire the starting gun on medium-term EURGBP weakness?