EU(TOP)-NOTCH ELECTION INSIDER

After the European elections: When does the new Parliament meet, when do the political groups form?

The newly elected European Parliament has 720 MEPs for the first time (previously: 705). They will meet in Strasbourg from 16. to 19.07.2024 for the Parliament's first constituent sitting. Even before this meeting, the newly elected MEPs form the various political groups on the basis of common political ideas.

At its first plenary session, Parliament elects the new President, the Vice-Presidents and the Quaestors, who primarily deal with financial and administrative tasks. The plenary session also decides on the number of MEPs who will sit on the individual parliamentary committees. Only at a later date will MEPs vote on the proposed new President of the European Commission. They will then evaluate the proposed candidates for the new Commission in public hearings. In the final plenary session, the entire Commission needs the Parliament's approval in order to take up its work.

In the elections in the 27 EU Member States from 06. to 09.06.2024, more than 175 million people voted on the composition of the new European Parliament. According to current estimates, the EU-wide voter turnout was around 51 per cent.

Winners and losers of the European elections

The European People's Party (EPP) won a clear victory in the elections. It is expected to win 189 seats (up 13) - and would therefore have more than a quarter of the 720 MEPs. The Social Democrats (S&D) remained the second largest group with around 135 MEPs (minus four). The Liberals (Renew Europe) recorded significant losses: They probably lost 23 seats and now only have 79 seats.

As predicted in the polls, the right-wing parties made gains across almost the entire EU: the European Conservatives and Reformers (ECR) are expected to gain 76 seats (up seven), while Identity and Democracy (ID) will gain 58 (up nine).

After five years of the "Green Deal", significantly fewer voters voted in favour of the ecologically oriented parties than in 2019 and voted many representatives out of Parliament: the Greens/EFA will probably only have 53 MEPs (down 18). The Greens suffered the greatest losses in the French and German delegations.

There are likely to be further changes in the coming days and weeks. Of particular interest will be a possible change in third place, as the gap between Renew and ECR has narrowed further.

First Commission candidates announced / Negotiations on top EU jobs begin

Four EU Commissioners were elected in the European elections on the basis of their respective national lists: Valdis Dombrovskis from Latvia, Executive Vice-President of the European Commission; Adina Vălean from Romania, responsible for Transport; Virginijus Sinkevičius from Lithuania, responsible for Environment; and Dubravka Šuica from Croatia, responsible for Democracy and Demography.

Valdis Dombrovskis can count on the support of his government for a third term as EU Commissioner. Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa announced on 11.06.2024 that she would reappoint Dombrovskis. She praised him as a "competent candidate with extensive professional experience and the ability to gain as much influence as possible within the European Commission".

Virginijus Sinkevičius will leave his post at the Commission and move to the European Parliament. The future of the two other current Commissioners Adina Vălean and Dubravka Šuica is still open. They have until the evening of 15.07.2024 to decide: Give up their office as MEPs, leave it to an ally or accept their mandate and resign from the EU Commission.

The current Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (EPP) announced that she would talk to social democrats and liberals in the European Parliament in order to secure the necessary votes for her second term of office. However, she left open whether she would also approach other parliamentary groups.

The first official date for negotiations on the top EU posts to be filled is 17.06.2024, when the EU heads of state and government will hold an informal dinner to try to find options for the next President of the European Council, the President of the Parliament and the Commission and the EU Foreign Affairs Commissioner.

Will António Costa be the new Council President?

Portuguese politician António Costa is being rumoured in Brussels as a possible successor to Belgian Council President Charles Michel. Portugal's Prime Minister Luís Montenegro declared that the government would support the possible candidature of former Socialist Prime Minister António Costa. Portuguese President Rebelo de Sousa also expressed his support. Prime Minister Montenegro had done the right thing: "He waited for the elections and when the election results paved the way, he said what was quite natural: that the government would support a Portuguese - and a Portuguese with his experience - for the European Council." He added: "António Costa knows Europe well ... he gets on well with European leaders and he is a Portuguese voice. This is important for Europe and Portugal."

At European level, Costa can probably count on the support of his socialist party colleagues. PES General Secretary Giacomo Filibeck is said to have already officially named him as a candidate. One advantage is that the relationship between Costa and von der Leyen is good, which is in contrast to the current relationship between von der Leyen and Council President Charles Michel. The background: if the winner of the election, the conservative EPP, becomes Commission President, the Social Democrats, as the second strongest party, will probably claim the office of Council President.

MEMBER STATES IN THE SPOTLIGHT

Belgium: Prime Minister de Croo resigns

Alexander de Croo (VLD, Renew) has resigned from office following heavy losses in the federal and regional elections. Both votes were held at the same time as the European elections. De Croo's Flemish Liberal Party lost almost half of its seats in the Chamber of Deputies, the Flemish Parliament and the Parliament of the Brussels Region. De Croo will now act as caretaker Prime Minister until a new coalition is formed.

The winner of the election is the Flemish nationalist N-VA (ECR). Party leader Bart De Wever was commissioned by Belgian King Philippe to form a new government. This has always been a difficult and protracted process in Belgium: at least five parties are required to form a governing majority, as most parties only run in either French-speaking Wallonia or Flanders. The N-VA has already made it clear that it will not enter into a coalition without a reform of the state system that grants the regions more autonomy.

The weak performance of the VLD (Renew) will also influence the appointment of the next Belgian EU Commissioner. In addition to the incumbent Commissioner Didier Reynders, the following names are in the running: the socialist Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke, the nationalist MEP Johan Van Overtveldt and the liberal former Prime Minister Sophie Wilmès. The far right won the most votes in the European elections in Belgium: Vlaams Belang (ID) became the strongest party with 14.5 per cent, with the N-VA (ECR) following close behind with 13.96 per cent. Among the 22 Belgian MEPs, PTB (The Left), Vooruit (PES) and MR (Renew) each gained one seat, Ecolo (Greens/EFA) one less. All other parties will retain their current strength.

Germany: AfD delegation excludes Krah / No domestic political consequences after the government's election defeat

The delegation of the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD, ID) in the European Parliament has excluded Maximilian Krah, who has been involved in numerous scandals. Krah criticised this as a "wrong signal". The far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group had previously expelled all AfD MEPs from the joint parliamentary group. ID justified this with Krah's relativisation of the crimes of the SS under National Socialism and the investigations into alleged funds from Russia and China, among other things. Even after Krah's expulsion, the AfD MEPs remain excluded from the ID parliamentary group.

The German government is resisting new elections, although all coalition parties performed poorly or even very poorly in the European elections: The SPD received just 13.9 per cent of the vote, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 11.9 per cent and the FDP 5.2 per cent. Markus Söder (CSU, EPP), among others, had previously called for new elections because the coalition had lost the trust of voters. Discussions on the federal budget could decide the future of the governing coalition in the coming weeks:

FDP (Renew) Finance Minister Christian Lindner wants to continue his austerity programme, while the SPD (S&D) is demanding more money for social welfare.

France: Macron dissolves the National Assembly

Following the clear defeat of the presidential majority Besoin d'Europe (Renew) in the European elections, French President Emmanuel Macron surprisingly announced early parliamentary elections: His electoral alliance had only received 14.6 per cent of the vote - less than half that of Marine Le Pen's right-wing Rassemblement National (RN, ID) with 31.5 per cent.

The parliamentary elections will take place on 30.06.2024 (first round) and 07.07.2024 (second round). Macron, who has ruled out stepping down as president, wants to end the successes of the RN with the new elections in order to avoid "handing the keys to power to the extreme right" at the end of his term of office in 2027.

The left-wing parties Parti Socialiste (S&D), Les Écologistes (Greens/EFA), La France Insoumise (Left) and Place Publique (S&D) have already announced the formation of a "Front Populaire". The aim is to support individual promising "first-round candidates" in each constituency.

Some right-wing parties are planning a similar move. Reconquête (ECR), for example, could join the RN. Meanwhile, a bitter dispute has broken out within Les Républicains (EPP): After party leader Eric Ciotti declared that he would ally himself with the Rassemblement National, the party executive dismissed him and expelled him from the party. Ciotti wants to defend himself against his expulsion: "I am and will remain chairman," he wrote on X. Annie Genevard and François-Xavier Bellamy will now lead Les Républicains on an interim basis until the situation is resolved within the party.

It is still unclear how the new French elections will affect the composition of the new Commission. However, President Emmanuel Macron will go into the negotiations with the other member states politically weakened. This should increase Ursula von der Leyen's (EPP) chances of becoming Commission President again.

Bulgaria: Conservatives win parliamentary elections

The conservative Gerb party (EPP), led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, received 25.8 per cent of the vote in the Bulgarian parliamentary elections. The "Movement for Rights and Freedoms" (DPS, Renew), which sees itself primarily as a representative of the Turkish minority, was the second strongest party. It achieved 15.8 per cent, closely followed by the pro-European liberal alliance PP-DP (Renew, Greens/EFA, EPP) with 14.99 per cent. The far-right party Wasraschdane (ID) received 14.26 per cent of the vote.

The Bulgarian parliamentary elections were the sixth vote in the past three years, with only 30 per cent of eligible voters taking part. The penultimate elections were held in April 2023. Given the extremely fragmented political landscape, it will be difficult for the parties to form a new government this time too.

Spain: Sumar leader resigns

Following the poor performance of the left-wing Sumar party alliance, Yolanda Díaz has announced her resignation as coordinator. However, she would like to remain on the party's executive committee. Sumar is a coalition partner of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's ruling Socialists (PSOE, S&D) and only received 4.65 per cent of the vote in the European elections. Under Díaz's leadership, Sumar has achieved hardly any successes to date. On the contrary. In the five elections since July 2023, Sumar has always achieved poor results: in the parliamentary elections, the three regional elections (Galicia, Basque Country and Catalonia) and most recently in the European elections.

The big winner of the European elections is Partido Popular (EPP): the largest opposition party received 34 per cent of the vote, giving it 22 MEPs in the future European Parliament. The Socialists (PSOE, S&D) of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who are in power in Madrid, came second with 30 per cent of the vote and 20 seats. The far-right VOX (ECR) improved its result compared to the last European elections by a good three percentage points to 9.62 per cent and will now have six MEPs (plus two). The extreme right-wing party Se Acabo la Fiesta (NI), newly founded by the controversial Youtuber Alvise Pérez, achieved a surprise success: it received 4.5 per cent of the vote and will send three MEPs to Brussels in future.

Teresa Ribera set to become spanish Commissioner

The current Spanish Minister for Ecological Transition and Demography, Teresa Ribera, has been elected as a Member of the European Parliament, but will not take her place. She will remain Spanish Minister until the new Commission takes office and afterwards will probably head a strong environment portfolio. Teresa Ribera has a law degree from the Complutense University of Madrid and a diploma in constitutional law and political science. She has an extensive background in public administration and law and was a professor at the Department of Public Law and Philosophy of Law at the Autonomous University of Madrid. Ribera has also held various technical positions in the Spanish public administration, particularly in the field of environmental and climate policy. Ribera has had a distinguished political career, especially in functions related to ecological transition and climate policy. In June 2018, she was appointed Spain's Minister for Ecological Transition, later serving as third Vice-President of the Government and Minister for Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge. During her time in office, she has been instrumental in Spain's environmental and climate policy, including the adoption of the Spanish Climate Law and the promotion of sustainable energy practices.