EU(TOP)-NOTCH ELECTION INSIDER

12.07.2024

Von der Leyen (EPP) campaigns for her re-election with S&D, Greens/EFA and Renew Europe

Ursula von der Leyen, President-elect of the European Commission, has held further talks with the three parliamentary groups crucial to her re-election: The lead candidate of the European People's Party (EPP) outlined her political priorities for the 2024-2029 legislative period to the Socialists and Democrats (S&D), Renew Europe and Green EFA groups. The common condition of her dialogue partners: Von der Leyen must clearly oppose cooperation with the European Conservatives and Reformists Group (ECR), which also includes the "Fratelli d'Italia" of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

Renew Europe: Group Chair Valérie Hayer expects clear commitments from the EPP and Ursula von der Leyen on competitiveness, defence and the rule of law. According to Hayer, they have also made it "very clear that we will not accept flirting with the far right": "We should be in a coalition with pro-European groups. For us, ECR is not a pro-European group." According to participants, von der Leyen pledged not to enter into "structured cooperation" with the ECR.

Greens/EFA: Co-chairs Terry Reintke and Bas Eickhout emphasised after the talks that their group was open to working with those political groups in the European Parliament whose policies are pro-Europe, pro-Ukraine and pro-rule of law.

S&D: The Socialists were prepared in principle to support von der Leyen. In their action programme, however, they insisted on cushioning the social costs of the "Green Deal" and giving priority to the "social dimension" when it comes to "competitiveness" (see 05.07.2024).

According to the timetable, the European Parliament should confirm von der Leyen as the new Commission President on 18.07.2024. According to current calculations, the "four-party coalition" with its 454 seats should achieve the required absolute majority of 361 votes in Parliament (720 seats). There is a residual risk: As the vote is secret, up to 15 per cent of MEPs from the EPP, S&D, Greens/EFA and Renew could vote against von der Leyen - according to internal fears of the EPP.

Majority groups want new "cordon sanitaire" against extreme right-wing parties

The four large parliamentary groups - EPP, S&D, Renew and Greens/EFA - want to use a new "cordon sanitaire" to prevent extreme-right parliamentarians from occupying responsible positions in Parliament and its committees. The "cordon sanitaire" is aimed in particular at the two newly founded political groups "Patriots for Europe" and "Europe of Sovereign Nations". However, it should not explicitly apply to all MEPs from the "European Conservatives and Reformists" (ECR): The majority groups want to carefully scrutinise which ECR candidates apply for important positions in parliamentary committees or as Vice-Presidents and under no circumstances elect "EU opponents" to these responsible positions.

European Greens publish their action programme 2024-2029

The Greens/EFA have placed a just transition and the fight against far-right parties at the centre of their political priorities for the coming legislative period. The group reaffirmed the "Green Deal", which aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by "at least 90 per cent" by 2040. The Greens also called for the EU to phase out fossil fuels. Farmers should be able to achieve an adequate income through new rules - in particular through more fairly distributed agricultural subsidies and a stop to the sale of agricultural products at a loss. At the same time, consumers should be better informed about the quality and origin of their food.

Another focus of the programme is the defence of democracy, the rule of law and fundamental rights: A new directive should establish minimum standards for the protection of civil society, gender equality and the right to abortion. Furthermore, the EU must not pursue foreign and trade policies at the expense of human rights, social rights and environmental rights.

"Patriots for Europe" become third largest political group

The right-wing nationalist group "Patriots for Europe" (PfE) was officially founded on 08.07.2024 and, with 84 MEPs, is the third-largest party alliance in the European Parliament after the EPP and S&D. The group's leader is Jordan Bardella from the French Rassemblement National (RN).

Other members are the Hungarian Fidesz, the Austrian FPÖ, Lega (Italy), Vox (Spain), Chega (Portugal), ANO (Czech Republic), Přísaha (Czech Republic), Christian Democratic People's Party (Hungary), Party for Freedom (Netherlands), Flemish Interests (Belgium), People's Party (Denmark), Voice of Reason (Greece) and Latvia First (Latvia). Group leader Bardella announced that the party's representatives "will play an important role in an important group to influence the balance of power in Europe". The founding of PfE marks the end of the previous right-wing group "Identity and Democracy" (ID), which has already disbanded.

AfD founds the "Europe of Sovereign Nations" group with seven other parties

At the instigation of the AfD, eight right-wing populist parties joined forces on 10.07.2024 to form the new "Europe of Sovereign Nations" (ESN) parliamentary group. The AfD had previously been excluded from the former ID Group in May. The new ESN group has a total of 25 MEPs from eight EU countries: the AfD (14), the Bulgarian Réveil (3), the French Reconquête (1), the Polish Konfederacja (3), the Slovak Republika (1), the Lithuanian 'People's and Justice Union' (1), the Czech 'Freedom and Direct Democracy' (1 ) and 'Our Homeland' from Hungary (1). The co-chairs of the ESN are the German René Aust and the Pole Stanisław Tyszka.

Sweden nominates Jessika Roswall as EU Commissioner

The Swedish government has nominated the current Minister for European Union and Nordic Co-operation for the future EU Commission. Jessika Roswall is a member of the ruling liberal-conservative Moderate Coalition Party (EPP) and is to replace the Social Democrat Ylva Johansson. Roswall has not yet decided which portfolio she would like to head in the next EU Commission, but emphasised that "the war in Ukraine, the competitiveness of the EU, the climate and crime" are important issues for Sweden. According to Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, his country should concentrate on political areas in which it is credible for historical reasons or where it should exert influence for strategic reasons.

Will Chris Fearne become Malta's EU Commissioner after all?

Maltese Prime Minister Robert Abela is still hoping to nominate social democrat politician Chris Fearne as EU Commissioner. Prerequisite: A Maltese court must restore Fearne's political reputation in the coming weeks. Fearne resigned as Deputy Prime Minister in May 2024 and withdrew his nomination as EU Commissioner. The public prosecutor's office had previously charged him for his alleged involvement in a hospital scandal. Fearne denies the allegations. The judge responsible must now decide at a hearing on 24.07.2024 whether the evidence against Fearne is sufficient for criminal proceedings. As Malta's long-serving Minister of Health, Fearne was a favourite for the post of the new EU Health Commissioner until his resignation.

Justice Commissioner Reynders hopes for a second term in office

The Belgian Didier Reynders would like to remain a member of the EU Commission after his unsuccessful candidature for the presidency of the Council of Europe. The current Justice Commissioner is a member of the French-speaking liberal party Reformist Movement (MR).

MR made strong gains in the national, regional and European elections on 09.06.2024. The incoming Belgian government must now decide who to send to Brussels as EU Commissioner. Other possible candidates: former Prime Minister Sophie Wilmès, who belongs to the same party as Reynders, Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke from the Flemish-speaking Socialists and MEP Johan Van Overtveldt from the Flemish Nationalists.

Social Democrats fight for Nicolas Schmit as EU Commissioner

Nicolas Schmit, Social Democrat EU Commissioner from Luxembourg and lead candidate in the European elections, said he was "optimistic" about being part of the next EU Commission: "This is not an internal question in Luxembourg. We have introduced the principle of lead candidates to make the system more European. You have to recognise that." This assessment is contradicted by the fact that the conservative government in Luxembourg is seeking to appoint former MEP Christophe Hansen as the new EU Commissioner. Meanwhile, members of the Social Democratic Group (S&D) in the European Parliament have spoken out in favour of Schmit. French MEP Christophe Clergeau is calling for guarantees for the "political balance" in the Commission and is hoping for a "significant economic portfolio" for Schmit. Many Social Democrats are also of the opinion that Nicolas Schmit's political future is one of the conditions for their group to support Ursula von der Leyen's candidature. As things stand, only Spain, Denmark and Malta would otherwise send a Social Democrat Commissioner to Brussels. The social democratic Slovakian governing party SMER will again propose Maroš Šefčovič as an independent candidate for the Commission. However, SMER has been suspended by the S&D, but will also not join the new "Patriots for Europe" group.

MEMBER STATES IN THE SPOTLIGHT

France: Difficult to form a government after the parliamentary elections

None of the three major party alliances achieved an absolute majority of 289 seats in the National Assembly (577 seats) in the second round of the parliamentary elections. The left-wing popular front "Nouveau Front Populaire" (NFP, S&D, Greens/EFA, LEft) won the election with 182 seats ahead of the previous presidential majority (Ensemble, Renew) with 168 seats. Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN), winner of the first round of voting, only came third with 140 seats. On the evening of the election, incumbent Prime Minister Gabriel Attal offered to resign, but President Emmanuel Macron refused. He called on Attal to continue in office "to ensure the stability of the country".

The victorious left-wing electoral alliance has since demanded that Macron nominate a new prime minister from the ranks of the NFP. Possible candidates include Olivier Faure (leader of the Socialist Party) and Clémence Guetté (member of parliament for La France Insoumise). However, President Macron vehemently rejected this demand, saying that no one had won the election and that at best the "republican forces" would have an absolute majority.

A possible centre-right bloc consisting of Ensemble/Renew and the republicans "Les Républicains" (LR, EPP) is also seen as an alternative government. As a minority government, this alliance would have 222 seats - 40 more than the left-wing Popular Front.

Slovakia: Fico has recovered and is pressing ahead with the reorganisation of the state

Prime Minister Robert Fico has largely recovered from the assassination attempt on his life. He officially resumed work this week. Since his election victory in September 2023, he and his three-party coalition - consisting of Smer (NI), Hlas (NI) and SNS (previously ID) - have made significant changes to Slovakia: A law that was rushed through after the attack guarantees Fico a lifelong state pension; the public media broadcaster RTVS, which he often criticised, was dissolved, re-established as STVR and is now controlled by a politically appointed body; the Constitutional Court has approved his judicial reform (lower penalties for corruption, shorter statutes of limitations, dissolution of the special anti-corruption prosecutor's office). Fico's next goal is to change the electoral system, which would allow him to secure his power beyond his current term of office.

Great Britain: New government wants closer trade with the EU - but no membership

The election victory of the Labour Party under the new Prime Minister Keir Stamer is likely to ease relations between the EU and the UK. The new Foreign Secretary David Lammy chose EU members Germany, Poland and Sweden for his first official trip. He pleaded in favour of "renewing our relations with our friends and allies, the Europeans".

Trade Minister Jonathan Reynolds also announced his intention to work more closely with the EU. This could, for example, relate to the review of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) due in 2026. The focus here would be on improved veterinary standards, the mutual recognition of conformity assessments and institutionalised cooperation in foreign and security policy. According to Reynolds, however, the former EU member Great Britain will not return to the European Community: "We are not open to the free movement of people, that is part of EU membership, and we will not take that up again."

The British Labour Party had clearly won the general election. It won 412 seats in the House of Representatives, while the previously governing Tories only won 121 seats, the Liberal Democrats 72 and Nigel Farage's Reform UK 5 seats.

Hungary: Council presidency criticised after "peace mission"

At a meeting of European Union ambassadors, numerous member states criticised Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán for his trips to Eastern Europe and Asia: Orbán had visited Russia, China and Turkey as well as Ukraine at the start of his country's EU Council Presidency.

A high-ranking EU diplomat criticised Orbán for having "set a dangerous precedent and dealt a blow to the image of the European Union" with his foreign policy sideline.

The Hungarian government had previously justified Orbán's trip as a "peace mission" to explore possible conditions for a ceasefire in Ukraine. As a counter-reaction, some EU member states now appear to be considering a temporary "silent boycott" of the Hungarian EU Council Presidency: They might not send ministers to the informal meetings in Hungary, but only subordinate officials.