EU(TOP)-NOTCH ELECTION INSIDER

All candidates for the new EU-Commission have been nominated

It took a little longer than the deadline set for the end of August, but now all the nominated candidates from the Member States for the Commission have been confirmed for the time being:

Romania: Surprisingly, Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu has replaced his previous candidate Victor Negrescu with MEP Roxana Mînzatu (PSD/S&D) at the request of Ursula von der Leyen. His aim is for her to take over a “relevant” portfolio. According to Ciolacu, Ursula von der Leyen had “only words of praise” for the Romanian MEP.

Belgium: The government nominated Belgian Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib as EU Commissioner - the second woman among the remaining candidates after Romania's proposal. This would increase the number of women in the new Commission from seven to nine. The Belgian government's approach is a compromise that the Prime Minister of the new government and the EU Commissioner belong to the country's two different language groups.

Ursula von der Leyen will present her new team next Wednesday, 11.09.2024. Initially in the early morning to the leaders of the political groups in the European Parliament, then to the public. However, the final candidates still have to convince the relevant EP committees.

The exact composition of the Commission is still unclear. According to rumors, von der Leyen would like to appoint four to six Executive Vice Presidents. The commissioners could then be divided into four, five or six “clusters” among the Executive Vice Presidents.

Start of the EU Commission could be delayed by a month

The start date for the new Commission was previously scheduled for 1.11.2024, but this could be postponed to 1.12.2024. The reason: the planned hearings in the committees are not expected to start until mid-October. According to Brussels, this timeframe suits Parliament better, as the additional time can be used to better prepare for the hearings. At the same time, the Commissioners-designate would also have more time to prepare for the hearings.

Meanwhile, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is holding further talks with the member states in order to achieve the goal of gender parity in the Commission. She appeals to the three EU institutions involved to do more in this area: “We are working very seriously on this issue. The Member States, the Commission and the European Parliament have a responsibility.” This is to be understood as a hint to the MEPs. At the hearings of the Commissioner candidates, they have the option of failing male candidates. The Member States concerned would then have their turn again and could nominate further female candidates in the second round.

Mario Draghi presents the main features of his report on the competitiveness of the Union

On Wednesday, 04.09.2024, Mario Draghi was a guest at the European Parliament and presented the main features of his report on competitiveness to the Conference of Presidents. He had previously done so in front of EU diplomats. Draghi explained that his report, which is based on consultations with numerous stakeholders, will be presented next week and that his recommendations will be included in the job descriptions of future Commissioners. The report itself is divided into five different sections: (i) increasing productivity, (ii) reducing dependencies, (iii) climate change, (iv) social inclusion and (v) “sector-specific” proposals for ten “important sectors” of the EU economy.

Draghi identified the main obstacles to competitiveness as a lack of innovation, high energy prices, skills shortages, the need for greater digitalization and a stronger defence capability. In particular, he pointed to the growing productivity gap between the EU and its main competitors. The USA has become a competitor and its economy is developing better than that of the EU. It is not labor costs that have a negative impact on European competitiveness, but above all the lack of productivity in the high-tech sector. The EU needs a policy that closes the innovation gap, promotes talent and lowers energy prices without neglecting decarbonization.

EPP Chairman Manfred Weber emphasized after the meeting that Draghi's comments were rather vague and that the Italian was “still in the mood to listen to the views of others”. Bas Eickhout, co-chair of Greens/EFA, agreed with Weber's analysis. Nevertheless, he believes that Draghi's report will probably contain several “concrete recommendations”. “He will come up with more specific policy descriptions,” Eickhout said. “I think we all agree that we already have a lot of reports with general and very vague messages.”

Draghi explained that the report would probably be presented to the President of the European Commission on Monday, 09.09.2024 and to the College of Commissioners on Wednesday, 11.09.2024.

MEMBER STATES IN THE SPOTLIGHT

France: Emmanuel Macron proposes Michel Barnier as Prime Minister

President Emmanuel Macron has surprisingly proposed Michel Barnier as Prime Minister and tasked him with forming a government. “The President of the Republic has appointed Michel Barnier as Prime Minister. He has tasked him with forming a united government at the service of the country and the French people”, reads a press release from the Elysée.

Macron had previously held talks with all political forces in parliament in order to achieve the broadest possible government majority. Whether Barnier will succeed in this is questionable. Although he is likely to have the support of the presidential majority of the Renaissance (Renew), the conservative forces have already emphasized that they do not want to be part of the government. The support of the left-wing alliance NFP is also questionable: Barnier may ultimately be tolerated by the Rassemblement National (PfE) - out of support for Barnier's restrictive positions on migration.

Michel Barnier can look back on a long political career. He was Environment Minister under François Mitterrand, Foreign Minister under Jacques Chirac and Agriculture Minister under Nicolas Sarkozy. He was also an EU Commissioner several times and played a key role as chief negotiator in the Brexit negotiations with the United Kingdom.

Austria: FPÖ still ahead in polls for National Council elections

In the latest polls ahead of the national elections on 29.09.2024, the FPÖ (PfE) is still three percentage points ahead of the ÖVP (EVP) with 27%. The SPÖ (S&D) currently has 21%. It is followed by the Neos (Renew) with 10% and the Greens (Greens/EFA) with 8%. They are followed by two small parties that are just above (Bierpartei, NI) and below (KPÖ, NI) the four-percent threshold.

The ÖVP and Greens have been governing together in a coalition government since 06.12.2021 if the polls are correct, the coalition would probably have no chance of continuing to govern.