Explaining the Government Shutdown

Tomorrow will mark the two-week point of the federal government shutdown. With all the mudslinging and noise, it can be hard to put the current battle in perspective. So here’s a short primer I put together to help me unravel this ongoing crisis on BBC 5 Live in the morning. Just sharing in case it helps you cut through the clutter.

1. Why a “partial” shutdown? Every shutdown is unique in its scope and flavor. Prior to this one, several government agencies already had funding approved for fiscal 2019 and Congress was on track to pass a short-term spending bill to fund the rest. Then came the Democrats’ battle with President Trump over authorizing $5.6 billion for a border wall. Neither side budged, leaving nine of 15 federal departments without funding as of Dec. 22, along with a range of federal agencies and programs.
2. Aren't a lot of services exempt? Even in a full shutdown, federal agencies must continue to operate essential services and mandatory spending programs. This isn’t just a moral issue. Spending on programs like Social Security and Medicare aren’t tied to annual appropriations. Other services like border protection, air traffic control, and food safety inspections are too critical to put on hold, which typically means the people working in those areas have to do their jobs without pay until the shutdown is over. The definition of what’s essential is, of course, open to debate and can shift as prolonged shutdowns put a strain on emergency funds. Each of the nine affected agencies -- Agriculture, Commerce, Justice, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, State, Transportation and Treasury -- has developed their own shutdown plans, which include timelines for how long certain discretionary services can be delivered. The Office of Management and Budget has details on the agencies’ contingency plans here.  
3. Why is this dragging on so long? It would have to drag on a week longer to match the longest shutdown on record, which lasted 21 days under President Bill Clinton’s watch 23 years ago. This is the 21st time the government has shut down because Congress doesn’t pass spending measures on time. Several factors complicate the odds of reaching a compromise in this one. Although spending $5 billion on a border wall seems trivial when compared with $4 trillion+ in annual federal spending, the wall has become a powerful symbol in rallying support in both parties. It was the signature campaign promise for Trump, who wields it as the tool for stopping unwanted immigration. For the Democrats, it has become a symbol of the petulance and false promises they see coming out of the White House. From what we saw today, as Speaker Nancy Pelosi stepped in to lead a Democrat-controlled Congress and President Trump said it “could be a long time” before the shutdown ends, it seems everyone is digging in for a long and protracted battle.
4. What’s the impact so far? Let’s break this down into categories:

• The Toll on Workers - More than 800,000 federal employees have been furloughed or working without pay since Dec. 22.  Will they get back those lost wages once the shutdown ends? Probably, but they have bills to pay and expenses to fund in the meantime. When you’re making $35,000 a year as an airport screener, you probably don’t have a lot of extra cash on hand to cover costs if you’re not being paid. We’ve seen some workers even set up GoFundMe pages to ask for donations, including Janton Lewis of Staten Island, who is trying to raise $4,000 to pay his bills until his Homeland Security salary comes back.
• The Toll on Consumers - It depends on your location and your immediate needs. Wallethub just did a survey of the shutdown’s impact, finding that blue states are harder hit than lean Republican. The hardest hit, of course, is the District of Columbia because of the high percentage of federal workers. States like Minnesota, where the share of federal workers and dollars is much lower, are unlikely to see as much impact. The longer this goes on, the more impact we’re likely to see as squeezed agencies are forced to cut costs.
• The Toll on the Economy -  If you believe there’s value to agencies like the Small Business Administration and the Federal Communications Commission, then you have to be disturbed when they shut their doors. Everything from grants to loans have slowed, and there are reports of trash piling up in closed down national parks. With the SEC on hold, IPOs may be delayed. We're missing key stats on the health of the economy. Is this on par with a trade war with China? Maybe not, but shutdowns hurt overall growth.
• The Toll on Communities -  Here in New York, other officials have stepped in to foot the bill to keep federally funded attractions like Ellis Island open during the busy holiday season. [It’s no coincidence that Governor Andrew Cuomo chose to give the inaugural address of his third term on the Island yesterday, given that his administration is paying $65,000 a day for its upkeep.]

5. What can the average person do? In the immediate term, not much. But if you're sick of having government services held hostage to political battles, let your elected officials know it. The biggest problem with shutdowns is that, as a strategy for getting what you want, they often work. That's not good for democracy, or for the economy.