Fall 2021 World Energy Forecast Disruptions, Transitions & Survival 2030s Age of Abundance August 2021

Forecast and Warnings About the 2020s Decade of Disruption Followed by Abundance for Climate Crisis Survivors

Richard Polk Curator Decarbonization, Innovation, and Arts Network

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“Whether it is to be Utopia or Oblivion it will be a touch-and-go relay race right up to the final moment… Humanity is in a final exam as to whether or not it qualifies for continuance in the Universe.” – R. Buckminster Fuller, Utopia or Oblivion, 1969

Here is the 2021 argument for Utopia. Utopia may seem far fetched given our world is still plagued by poverty, disease, racism, and increasing environmental devastation. Crises like what is happening in Afghanistan ultimately feel like a regression. We have seen schoolyards become war zones, watched racism and intolerance take lives, and have ached at the division that afflicts our populations. Climate change has already claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, in floods, fires, and storms. We feel brokenhearted about today, fearful of uncertain tomorrows. 

Although we may be distraught over the challenges society faces today, unforeseen peace and prosperity are only a couple of decades away. 

The 2020s and 2030s will bring technology innovations and convergences propelling us into sustainability, stability, and abundance for the many. 

To see the future, we must see clearly the facts about the present. Much of the world is already getting better. In the last 20 years, extreme poverty across the globe has halved, more girls are being educated as detailed by Hans Rosling, and low carbon transitions are accelerating. Most excitingly, we currently sit at a nexus of global social tension and technological disruption

First, however, our climate crisis will get worse before it gets better. The ‘problem’ is life is improving for the billion people not yet enjoying electrification in the world faster than we can put renewables into service. An example is China, which has produced and put more renewables into service around the world than any other country, but still has to burn more coal to keep up with their growing demand for energy. The realization that the fossil fuel logistic and environmental burden is becoming history as we approach a tipping point when renewable energy generation is greater than demand - a defining event during the 2020s disruptions.

Economics, not politics or religion, will drive this Age of Abundance. The originalist goals of democracy will finally be realized with biometric block chain voting from smartphones and computers with cameras. Efficiency, not revolution e.g., updating our archaic governmental procedures like timing requirements determined by the number of days it took to ride a horse from one place to another in early America. With today’s technology, democracy and voting can finally be aligned with the state or federal governing laws, setting us free from today’s unintended divisiveness.

Greed and survival have long dominated decision-making in our power structures. We have had to rely on strongman governance and fossil fuels. While both were essential for survival and growth in the past, their usefulness has now become antiquated.

By the 2030s, the future will look much more promising.

What people truly desire is dignity, good health, shelter, purposeful work, and a meaningful life. These needs and aspirations can and should be met for every human. Solutions are nearing, due almost exclusively to economics. Meeting clean electricity goals is now within reach. According to RMI, “Wind and solar are now the least expensive forms of generation we can build in most of the country, and we know how to integrate them seamlessly into the grid.” Taking care of our planet means taking care of our people.

Competition is driving EV battery prices down as the technology improves and manufacturing volumes increase. Green Hydrogen and Ammonia will become preferred energy carriers as their price decline accelerates. The less expensive, carbon-free energy being used to manufacture these products are freeing us from relying on carbon and other pollution distributing Natural Gas (NG) and Liquid Natural Gas (LNG). 

The next 15 years will bring numerous convergences, already in process today. As are detailed in Rethinking Climate Change.

Accelerated social and technological change emerged from the recent pandemic. Significant disruptions in regenerative agriculture, reimagined education, sustainable housing systems, public health, and automation materials, are occurring in sync with the energy transition. The future has the capacity for more renewable energy than the world needs, sustainable housing for all, EV batteries set free to arbitrage, with energy trading between microgrids rich with distributed generation, seeding economies far too busy for wars, with cheap, sometimes free energy.

For the first time, life will be great for the many, not just a fortunate few.

Today’s extensive global economies, mass overproduction, and impressive technological advances usher in an abundant era of life, focused on people rather than products. We will win the war on climate change, perhaps the last war ever to be fought. There will be suffering and death from floods, intolerable temperatures, and food supply disruption. In America and the world after fossil fuels, kindness rather than indifference or anger will be economically rewarding. For instance, the Denver Post reports that annual per-person spending on homelessness is twice the cost of a 1-bedroom apartment. Providing housing for people experiencing homelessness is more economic than not providing them housing, and improves the quality of life for the fortunate almost as much as the people living in it. Sustainable alternatives in all sectors are available and will be among the most loved centerpieces of The Age of Abundance.

The Covid -19 pandemic teaches us that healthcare access, including vaccines, is essential. Telemedicine with AI triage can bring healthcare to all. This decade of disruptions will bring us a better life, abundance beyond the privileged and lucky few. Our climate change influenced transitions will clear the smoke and bring cleaner air, from cleaner fuels and industrial processes. However, rising sea levels and shoreline changes may be permanent, demanding relocation and rebuilding of some of the built environment. Families suffering from too much heat, flooding or other crises shouldn't believe the most recent event they survived was the worst that will happen. Keeping safe may even mean relocation. Some families may need to relocate ASAP to be healthy and happy enjoying the Age of Abundance in fifteen years, according to ProPublica's New Climate Map predictions for North America. 

When we survive climate change, making the best choices available, the resulting Age of Abundance will include surprises as wondrous as the weapons industry following tobacco and fossil fuels into the history books.

We will enjoy truth, happiness, and accountability in the Age of Abundance. Within 20 years the quantum speed of multiple disruptions will power peace and prosperity.