The Fall of Bashar Assad: What now for the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Proxies in the Levant

"Now we are changing the paradigm," Israeli defence minister says. "When the octopus tentacles hit you, you must fight back not just against the tentacles, but also make sure to suffocate the head of the octopus, and the same applies to Iran."

(Israel Hayom 2nd November 2020)

The Fall of Bashar Assad: What now for the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Proxies in the Levant

With Israel conducting self-defence operations on two military fronts, one in the Palestinian Gaza Strip and the other in Lebanon’s southern border against by the Iranian-backed Hezbollah, Syria seemed far and distant.

Although Israel had conducted air and drone strikes against Iran/Hezbollah targets inside Syria nothing seemed out of the ordinary as these sorties were really an everyday occurrence.

The Iranian Tasnim News Agency announced in its online page on the 30th November 2024 that “Terrorist Advances in Aleppo Repelled by Syrian, Russian Counterattacks.” Syrian and Russian forces launched retaliatory strikes against terrorist positions in northern Syria, inflicting heavy casualties and regaining control of key areas after Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militants briefly entered parts of Aleppo. Terrorists from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) advanced into sections of Aleppo on 29th December 2024, seizing areas including Al-Hamdaniyah, Al-Furqan, and Al-Zahraa Association, according to local sources. However, Syrian forces quickly launched counter-operations to repel the assault.

The Syrian Army's General Command announced that its forces killed or injured hundreds of militants, destroyed armoured vehicles, and downed 17 drones used by the terrorists. “Our forces inflicted heavy losses on the attackers and successfully regained control over previously violated points,” the statement read.

The Tasnim News Agency continued; Syrian and Russian warplanes bombed terrorist positions in northern Aleppo and Idlib provinces, focusing on the town of Maarat al-Numan and the Mount al-Zawiya region in southern Idlib.

Russian strikes reportedly killed at least 200 militants within a day, according to the Russian Ministry of Defence.

Lebanon's Al-Mayadeen television reported that the Syrian army pre-emptively thwarted four large-scale terrorist operations originating from the town of Anadan, northwest of Aleppo. Missile strikes targeted terrorist strongholds across western Aleppo and Mount Zawiya, disrupting their planned assaults.

In southeastern Idlib, Syrian forces countered further advances by HTS, regaining strategic ground. The military is bolstering its positions across all fronts to prevent future incursions.

Syrian Foreign Minister Bassam Sabaq, in a call with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, emphasized Syria’s commitment to confronting terrorist aggression. "The Syrian state and people remain steadfast against these attacks and will not allow the terrorists or their backers to achieve their goals," Sabaq asserted.

The General Command warned citizens to rely on official sources for accurate information, citing attempts by terrorist groups to spread misleading fake news aimed at creating panic.

Al-Arabiya caught the report and confirmed that, “opposition forces now control a majority of Aleppo city, reporting Russian airstrikes on parts of Syria’s second city for the first time since 2016.

The opposition forces have pressed a lightning offensive against forces of the Iranian - and Russian-backed Syrian government since Wednesday (27th November 2024), the same day a fragile ceasefire took effect in neighbouring Lebanon between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah group, a Damascus ally, after two months of all-out war.

“Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied factions... took control of most of the city and government centres and prisons,” said the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

HTS, an alliance led by Al-Qaeda’s former Syria branch, controls swathes of the Idlib region, in Syria’s northwest, as well as parts of neighbouring Aleppo, Hama and Latakia provinces.”

Eventually Syria fell to the rebel forces on the 8th December 2024. At the time Bashar Assad and his wife’s whereabouts were unknown.

Barbaric and Cruel Father and Son Rule

During the Hamas and the State of Israel conflict there have been many accusations made against Israel for various violations of the Geneva Conventions and the Law of war. The United Nations, western press and media outlets with various Arab press groups along with propaganda from the Islamic Republic of Iran have labelled Israel for being the worst perpetrators of death in the Middle East against any another group residing in the region.

The Middle East for decades has seen wars between various nations as they cannot find a dialogue to resolve their differences. Although war is a very ghastly act so are the reasons for starting them. In the case of Israel, it was the invasion of its territory, the slaughter and rape of Israelis and the illegal taking of hostages. When Hamas conducted this attack, they knew that the Israeli’s would retaliate, Hamas chose the battleground and the guerrilla war that would accompany it.

But what if the conflict is against your own people? A civil-war? Does that mean that the rules of war and Geneva Conventions must be disregarded by the regime in power who are fighting for their existence against those who attempt to overthrow them? Should they be allowed to do as they please to a population in order to remain in power?

The Syrian civil war, which began in 2011, is a complex and devastating conflict that has had far-reaching consequences. The war emerged from a series of protests during the Arab Spring in Syria. Initially, protesters demanded political reforms, greater freedoms, and an end to government corruption. The Syrian government, led by President Bashar al-Assad, responded with force, leading to widespread unrest and armed conflict.

Multiple actors and factions are involved. Government Forces, backed by Russia and Iran, sought to maintain Assad’s rule. Rebel Groups initially aimed for democratic reforms but later splintered into different factions. Kurdish Forces focused on autonomy in northern Syria. Islamic Extremist Groups which include the Islamic State (ISIS) and al-Qaeda affiliates. Also, external powers such as the United States, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia have supported different factions.

The current leader of the Syrian Arab Republic is Bashar al-Assad who became president in 2000. He succeeded his father, Hafez al-Assad who died on the 10th June 2000. The national legislature of Syria approved a constitutional amendment lowering the age of a president from 40 to 34 which coincidently was the age of Bashar al-Assad at the time. On the 10th July 2000 and running for president, unopposed, Bashar was elected as president for a seven-year term, that was twenty-four years ago. Since being elected the son, Bashar, has inherited a great deal of his father’s authoritarian ways. Bashar has been re-elected ever since by a near unanimous majorities although elections have been received as a sham.

Both father and son have a very violent history when putting down attempted overthrows in Syria. Either father and son would do anything to stay in power regardless of the actions that they take to do so.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is an Islamist militant group that emerged from the Syrian civil war. Initially formed as an offshoot of al-Qaeda in Syria, it was known as Jabhat al-Nusra before rebranding in 2017. HTS has been a significant player in the conflict, controlling the Idlib province and acting as a quasi-governmental entity. The group has been involved in various military operations and has been accused of human rights abuses.

Abu Mohammed al-Jolani and Southern Operations Room leaders met on the 11th December 2024 to discuss coordination in military and civil affairs. It is notable that these Syrian groups have agreed to cooperate with HTS despite historical animosity with HTS’s predecessor and al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al Nusra in the mid-2010s.

Abu Mohammed al-Jolani

HTS's leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, has publicly distanced the group from al-Qaeda, aiming to establish a fundamentalist Islamic rule in Syria. Despite these efforts, HTS remains designated as a terrorist organization by several countries.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is designated as a terrorist organization by several countries and international bodies, including the United States, the United Kingdom, and the United Nations. However, there have been recent discussions about potentially removing HTS from some of these lists, particularly in the UK, due to changes in the group's behaviour and leadership.

Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, born Ahmad al-Sharaa in 1982, is the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a prominent Islamist militant group in Syria. He initially gained prominence as the leader of Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda, before rebranding the group as HTS in 2017. Al-Jolani has attempted to distance himself from his al-Qaeda ties, presenting a more moderate image and focusing on governance within Syria.

His journey from a hardline jihadi to a figure seeking international legitimacy is complex and controversial. Despite his efforts to portray HTS as a more moderate force, the group remains designated as a terrorist organization by several countries.

On the 9th December 2024 opposition leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, was now using his real name Ahmed al-Sharaa.

In an interview with the Syrian TV news channel 0n the 13th December 2024 Ahmad al-Sharaa said without directly mentioning Israel, he further spoke of “diplomatic solutions” as the only way to ensure security and stability and as a preferable option to “ill-considered military adventures.”

In his interview, the new leader in Damascus appeared to indirectly respond to Israeli concerns and provide reassurance. Sharaa said that Syria is exhausted by years of civil war and that at this stage it will not be dragged into conflicts that may lead to further destruction, with reconstruction and stability the main priorities.

Israel and Syria do not have diplomatic relations and have formally been in a constant state of war since Israel declared independence in 1948.

Why Was the State of Syria so Important to The Islamic Republic of Iran?

Before Iran became involved in propping up Bashar Assad Iran had a number of methods to supply its proxies in the Levant. They would attempt to fly military logistics in support of their proxies by air and would often be found to be smuggling machine parts that included weapons and ammunition. The same problems came when attempting to smuggle logistics into the Levant by sea.

Israel and Egypt had kept a blockade on the Gaza Strip. In 2007, after Hamas seized control of Gaza, Israel imposed an indefinite blockade on Gaza that remains in place, on the grounds that Fatah and Palestinian Authority forces had fled the Strip and were no longer able to provide security on the Palestinian side.

Egypt imposed a blockade on the Gaza Strip in January 2008, shortly after Hamas took control of the territory in June 2007. This blockade was aimed at restricting the movement of goods and people in and out of Gaza, in coordination with Israel.

The Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, began its major offensive in June 2014. This marked the start of their rapid territorial expansion in Iraq and Syria, leading to the declaration of a caliphate by their leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, on the 29th June 2012.

Iran began assisting Syria against the Islamic State (IS) in June 2014, shortly after IS declared its caliphate. Iran's involvement included providing military support to the Syrian government, deploying troops, and supporting various militias, including Hezbollah.

Iran provided extensive support to Syria during the period when the Islamic State (IS) was active in the country. Iran deployed troops and advisors, including members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Quds Force, to assist Syrian government forces.

Iran provided significant financial support to help sustain the Syrian government and its military operations. Iran supplied weapons, ammunition, and military equipment to Syrian forces.

Iranian forces trained and advised Syrian troops and allied militias, including Hezbollah. Iran played a key role in strategic planning and coordination of military operations against IS and other rebel groups.

Iran's involvement was crucial in helping the Syrian government regain control over territories previously held by IS and other militant groups.

In assisting in the defeating of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, Iran was able to create a land corridor from Tehran through the south of Iraq to Damascus without fear of being discovered smuggling military cargo to its proxies. Iran could fly unrestricted and have move by road whatever it wanted without being contested.

Syria had also been receiving an average of around 2 million barrels of crude oil monthly from Iran. Iran has been providing Assad's government with free oil, as well as financial and military assistance throughout the country's civil war. According to Iranian politicians, the Assad government owed Iran between $30-50 billion. Syria was also a location for Iran’s oil sales amid global sanctions, allowing the Islamic Republic to circumvent the crippling economic grip imposed by the US and other nations. Iran invested billions in Syria – including in its oil and gas infrastructure, telecommunications, and reconstruction projects whilst neglecting their own.

Not only does the Assad government owe Iran a considerable amount of money it was also the hub for supplying its proxies with the tools to attack Israel.

In Iran’s own words:

The alliance between Iran and Syria, forged in a context of regional tensions and sectarian rivalries, has become one of the most solid in West Asia. This strategic bond, combining political, military, and geopolitical interests, has allowed both countries to withstand external pressures and assert their influence in a deeply fragmented region.

The Tehran-Damascus axis solidified after the 1979 Islamic Revolution and found a new pillar in its relationship with Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite group that became an indispensable ally for both. In this framework, Syria transformed into a strategic corridor for the delivery of weapons and resources to Hezbollah, thereby enhancing Iran's power projection in the Levant and its position in the regional geopolitical landscape.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf reinforced this narrative by reiterating Tehran's commitment to Syria's fight against terrorism. In a post on his X account, Qalibaf denounced the recent attacks as part of a "plot by the United States and the illegitimate Zionist regime," while pledging continued support to the Syrian government and people.

"After defeating the Zionist regime, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Axis of Resistance will support Syria in facing this new conspiracy, as we have done in the past," the Iranian politician asserted.

From the perspective of the Islamic Republic of Iran, any attempt at "disconnecting" Syria from Hezbollah represents a significant strategic threat, viewed as a direct advancement of Israeli interests in the region. The ability to maintain a land corridor connecting Tehran to Beirut, passing through Damascus, is crucial for the Resistance Axis supported by Iran, both in logistical and geopolitical terms.

The disconnect between Damascus and Hezbollah would be a significant blow to Iran, limiting its ability to project influence and undermining its strategy of supporting allied groups in the region. For Israel, however, this scenario would reinforce its strategic security by reducing Hezbollah’s capacity to receive military supplies and operational support from Syria.

After the Fall of Assad

US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), an alliance of Syrian Kurdish fighters, seized the eastern city of Deir ez-Zor and a nearby Iraqi-Syrian border crossing used by Iran to arm Lebanon's Hezbollah, Reuters reported on the 6th December 2024. This action strangled any support through Syria to the Levant.

The Al-Bukamal crossing fell under SDF control on Friday, Reuters said citing two Syrian army sources. The border crossing in Deir ez-Zor was a key channel used by the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to transport weapons to Lebanon through Syria.

The Islamic Republic of Iran and the Blame Game

Tehran Times 9th December 2024; In a televised interview, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi attributed the recent fall of the Syrian government to a covert plan orchestrated by the United States and the Israeli regime.

The top diplomat's comments came on Sunday, following the collapse of the Syrian government when militant groups, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), captured the capital, Damascus.

Araghchi stated, "Both analytically and in terms of intelligence, there was a behind-the-scenes design by the U.S. and the Zionist regime to create problems for the Axis of Resistance."

He revealed that Iran and Syria were aware of the militants' movements in Idlib, crediting their intelligence systems. (Yet with all the advisors that Iran had in country they did nothing pro-actively to stop the militants from advancing from the north and taking Damascus and forcing Al-Assad to flee)

However, the Syrian army’s performance fell short, leading to rapid developments and psychological warfare — a situation even former President Bashar al-Assad lamented.

"The intelligence systems of Iran and Syria were fully aware of the movements in Idlib and had provided complete information to the Syrian government," he said. "What was unexpected was the Syrian army's inability and the speed of developments."

Araghchi continued and warned that despite Israel's aggressive manoeuvres, resistance movements like Hezbollah possess the capability to defend themselves and maintain resistance for extended periods.

The Jerusalem Post wrote that Iran knows that it lost a lot of influence in the region when the Assad regime fell in Syria. Now, the Iranian regime is scrambling to shore up its image. How is Iran doing this? Iran has several narratives it is pushing via its state media.

The first narrative is to try to spin the Syria crisis as something to do with Israel. Iran has blamed the US and Israel for helping topple the Assad regime. Iran does not blame Turkey even though Turkey also played a role. Iran is spinning the story to make it seem that Israel benefits from the fall of Assad and that Israel might even use the Syria crisis to distract from the war in Gaza. Iran wants the region to hate Israel, Iran is not pleased.

Iran is also portraying itself as flexible. It says it is flexible in dealing with the West. This is because it senses that the West might see it as weak. Iran may like to work with the West as it seeks to break out toward a nuclear weapon in secret, for instance. Iran is trying to portray a “this is fine” sense after the Assad regime’s fall. It is also putting out talking points about how it had warned Assad. 

The Iranian regime also wants Syrians to determine their future, Iranian officials have said. This could mean Iran is trying to salvage its influence in Damascus. Iran will want to accommodate the new officials there and find a way to continue to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah and what’s left of the other proxies.

Iran says it is “sparing no effort” to bring calm to Syria. This is ironic since Iran’s policies brought suffering and chaos to Syria over the years. In addition, the Iranian-backed Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) group has also spoken out. “Ziyad al-Nakhalah, secretary general of Palestinian resistance movement Islamic Jihad, says the recent developments in Syria are an ‘internal matter’ for the Arab country.”

One oppressive government supporting another oppressive government.

The commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Hossein Salami said on 10th December 2024 that the Islamic Republic had not been weakened following the fall of its ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria. “We have not been weakened and Iran’s power has not diminished," Hossein Salami was quoted as telling members of parliament in a closed session. Salami said no Iranian forces remained in Syria.

“The overthrow of the Zionist regime [Israel] is not off the agenda,” Salami said. Propaganda.

The IRGC commander Major General Hossein Salami said “Some expect us to go and fight instead of the Syrian army. Is it logical for us to engage all the IRGC and Basij (volunteer forces) in fighting in another country while the army of that country is merely watching? On the other hand, all the ways for us to get to Syria were closed. The Islamic Republic was really trying day and night to do whatever it could to help.”

The Revolutionary Guards, were commandeering civilian airliners to fly troops into Damascus Airport to support Assad. But then Israel made it clear that it would not allow Iran’s troops so close to its border, and Iran no longer had credible counter-threats.

The IRGC chief stressed, “We have a great nation to stand up to (bullies). We have a great leader to provide guidance and inspiration. We have strong armed forces. If we had been weakened, we would not have conducted True Promise operations.” Referring to the two dismal failing Iranian strikes against Israel.

The IRGC chief said, “Of course, I proudly inform you that the last ones who left the resistance line in Syria were the IRGC forces and the last person who left the battlefield was an IRGC soldier.”

In reality they could not extract themselves quick enough.

The commander of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Hossein Salami claimed that Syrians used to live dignified life when Iran was there

The Iranian Supreme Leader has the last word when it comes to who was responsible for the downfall of the Syrian dynasty.

On the 11th December 2024 the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei addressed a massive gathering at Tehran's Imam Khomeini Hussainiyah. The Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei discussed recent regional events, focusing on the situation in Syria.

He stated that “However, the primary architects, conspirators, and control room are in the United States and the Zionist regime.”

Ayatollah Khamenei characterized the actions of the Zionists and the US in the recent events in Syria as one of the indications. “If they were not the architects of the events in Syria, why did they not remain silent like other countries? By bombing hundreds of infrastructure centres, airports, research centres, training centres for scientists, and other locations in Syria, they have practically interfered in the ongoing events,” he asserted.

Expanding on additional evidence of US and Zionist involvement in Syrian affairs, he stated, “In the final days, there was an intention to send aid and supplies to the citizens of a region in Syria, specifically Zainabiyah. However, the Zionist forces obstructed all land routes. American and Zionist aircraft conducted extensive flights, effectively preventing these aid supplies from being transported by air,” he explained.

In outlining the future trajectory of regional developments, the Leader stated, “The arrogant powers mistakenly believe that the resistance front has been weakened following the fall of the pro-resistance Syrian government. However, they are sorely mistaken; for they fundamentally misunderstand the nature of resistance and the resistance front.”

He characterized resistance not as a tangible structure susceptible to breaking or collapsing, but rather as a profound faith, a distinct ideology, a school of faith, and a heartfelt commitment. He further emphasized that for this reason, the resistance becomes stronger against the pressures it faces, and the motivation of its individuals and elements intensifies and expands upon witnessing malevolence.

This is a leader deluded from the realism of the situation which in reality is of their own making.

Iran Turns on Ahmad al-Sharaa Formerly Abu Mohammad al-Jolani

In an article from the Foundation for the Defence of Democracies (FDD), Hussain Abdul-Hussain wrote, Ahmad al-Sharaa Sharaa’s most encouraging statements, so far, have come during his meeting, over the 14/15th December 2024, with Arab journalists, in which he said that Syria under him had no problem with the Iranian people, but only with the “dangerous project” of the Iran regime. He added that Syria would not opt for war with Israel, that Israel’s strikes on Syria are no longer justified (since the Iranian militias had gone) and that he would instead seek diplomatic solutions for any problems with the Jewish state.

And by opposing the Iranian “project,” Sharaa also seemed adamant on rejecting the Iranian model of encouraging the formation of armed non-state militias that allow a “spiritual leader” to control the usually weaker government, thus creating failed states in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen.

Sharaa said he planned to disband all militias and have the Syria government be the only sovereign that monopolizes the use of violence and stands responsible for deploying it when need be.

He showed maturity in dealing with Moscow, saying Syria’s new rulers could have struck Russian bases in Syria but preferred to turn the page, instead. London is now in touch with Sharaa and so is Washington.

Tasnim News Agency the Iranian ambassador to Damascus received a series of recommendations from Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi to protect Iran’s national interests and push for Syria’s territorial integrity. Iran’s Ambassador to Syria Hossein Akbari met with Araqchi in Tehran on the 14th December.

The envoy gave a report on the latest developments in Syria following the fall of the government of Bashar al-Assad and briefed the foreign minister on the arrangements made to ensure the safety and security of the staff members of Iran’s embassy in Damascus and other diplomatic and consular sites in Syria.

In an interview on Iranian national television, Hossein Akbari, Iran's ambassador to Syria, announced that the Iranian embassy in Damascus is set to resume its operations shortly.

For his part, Araqchi gave the ambassador advice about the necessity for constant and close monitoring of the developments in Syria in order to safeguard Iran’s national security and interests, support Syria’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and protect regional security and stability.

The Syrian interim government, led by Ahmad Al-Bashir until March 2025, stresses its commitment to peace and neutrality. It aims for amicable relations with nations that “have not contributed to Syrian bloodshed.” This principle, officials say, will guide all future diplomatic moves.

Regarding Iran, the interim government is unlikely to pursue close ties. A source close to the administration told The Media Line that Syrians would not forget Iran’s involvement in their suffering, and genuine trust in Tehran remains highly improbable as long as Iran’s current regime endures.

Anti-Iran sentiment was apparent when opposition forces entered Damascus. While they safeguarded most foreign embassies, they targeted Iranian representations, tearing down portraits of Iranian leaders and vandalizing diplomatic facilities. This indicates that Iran’s influence in Syria has decisively receded, at least for now.

Iran International reported on the 14th December 2024 that the exclusion of Iran from talks reflects its diminished influence in post-Assad era as regional and global powers align to shape Syria's political transition.

Iran reacted like a petulant child. Al-Jolani said he will not be joining the Axis of Resistance in support of Palestinians throwing cold water on any hope Iran had of reviving its axis of power and using Syria to replenish its proxies in the Levant.

The Tehran Times, now in a flat spin, wrote: For the most part, so far, al-Jolani has acted as the perfect Western puppet. He has changed his looks to better fit Western TV, he demonizes Iran, and he has a phenomenon indifference to Israeli aggressions against his country. Much to the dismay of Washington and Al-Jolani’s second biggest supporter, Turkey, however, nobody knows when this carefully constructed façade of a reformed terrorist is going to crack and backfire on all involved actors. Some believe that day might be right around the corner.

Major General Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) speaking at a Tehran cultural ceremony, he asserted that courageous Syrian youth will ultimately liberate their homeland. He described foreign powers as "hungry wolves" preying on a vulnerable Syria.”

His comments in reality speak to what Iran has done with Syria in the past and hoping to do so with the new Syrian leaders.

The Islamic Republic now needed a new propaganda policy in the wake of Syria’s refusal to involve Iran in talks. The reality of the whole event which started on the 27th November 2024 is that Iran had sat idly by and allowed the fall of Syria. The Iranian regime needed a new propaganda narrative to explain why they did not defend a regime in which they had invested, more than $50 billion in the course of a decade and let it slip through their fingers.

The West’s Reaction with Carrot and Stick

Syria has faced sanctions from several countries and international bodies due to its actions during the civil war and its support for militant groups.

The U.S. had imposed comprehensive sanctions on Syria since 1979, with additional measures introduced in response to the civil war. The EU has also imposed sanctions targeting Syrian officials and entities involved in the repression of civilians.

Canada has implemented sanctions against Syria, focusing on individuals and entities responsible for human rights abuses. Australia had imposed sanctions on Syria, targeting individuals and entities involved in the conflict. Switzerland had also imposed sanctions on Syria, aligning with the measures taken by other countries.

These sanctions aim to pressure the Syrian government to end violence against civilians and allow for a democratic transition.

There have been discussions about potentially lifting sanctions against Syria. Recently, the United States and the United Arab Emirates had been in talks about the possibility of lifting sanctions if Syria cuts ties with Iran and blocked weapons smuggling routes to Hezbollah. These discussions had intensified in recent months, driven by the potential expiration of sweeping U.S. sanctions on Syria and Israel's campaign against Tehran's regional network.

In a report from the Times of Israel on the 2nd Decem2024 they wrote that the US placed sanctions on Syria after Assad cracked down against protests against him in 2011, and the sanctions were repeatedly tightened in the years of war that followed. The toughest, known as the Caesar Act, passed Congress in 2019.

The Caesar sanctions apply across Syrian business sectors, to anyone dealing with Syria regardless of nationality, and to those dealing with Russian and Iranian entities in Syria.

Assad said they amounted to economic warfare, blaming them for the Syrian currency’s collapse and drop in living standards. Even though he lived an opulent lifestyle with the family acquiring at least 20 luxury apartments in Moscow, with a value exceeding $30 million and total assets which are estimated to total around $2 billion.

The sanctions will “sunset” – or expire – on the 20th December 2024 unless renewed by US lawmakers.

Part of the recent American-Emirati discussions cantered on allowing Caesar sanctions to expire without renewal, said the US source and three of the Syrian interlocutors.

One Syrian interlocutor said the UAE had raised the idea of letting them expire with White House officials two months ago, after having unsuccessfully pushed for at least two years of sanctions relief for Assad after a deadly earthquake in February 2023.

Arab states have other potential avenues to reward Assad for distancing himself from Iran.

A foreign diplomat based in the Gulf said both the UAE and Saudi Arabia had in recent months offered “financial incentives” to Assad to split with Iran, saying they could not have been made without coordination with Washington.

In a veiled threat Iran warned Assad not to stray far.

The senior regional diplomat briefed by Tehran said Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei conveyed a message via his senior adviser Ali Larijani, who told Assad: “Do not forget the past.”

“The message served as a reminder to Assad of who his true allies are,” the diplomat said.

The Tehran Times wrote, Recent reports from Reuters have unveiled the covert strategies employed by the United States, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Arabia concerning Syria. Before the recent uptick in terrorist activities, these countries proposed lifting sanctions on Syria if President Bashar al-Assad distanced himself from Iran and the Axis of Resistance, according to Reuters. This offer, if true, was part of a broader strategy by these countries to undermine Syria and its allies.

Now Assad is no longer the head of state this could be a carrot for the new leadership. The stick would be to allow the sanctions to remain which would not be a good start for a ‘liberated’ Syria.

US President Joe Biden was among leaders cautioning that hardline groups within the victorious opposition force alliance would face scrutiny. “Some of the (opposition) groups that took down al-Assad have their own grim record of terrorism and human right abuses,” Biden said. “We will assess not just their words, but their actions,” Biden said.

The State Department said on the 9th December 2024 it is not actively reviewing the “foreign terrorist organization” designation of the main Syrian rebel group that overthrew Bashar Assad’s government this weekend. But it said such designations are constantly under review, and that even while it’s in place, the label does not bar U.S. officials from speaking with the group.

“There is no specific review related to what happened” over the weekend, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters. “That said, we are always reviewing. Based on their actions, there could be a change in our sanctions posture, but we have nothing today.”

Nevertheless, Miller said U.S. officials “do have the ability, when it is in our interest, legally to communicate with a designated terrorist organization.”

“The President emphasized the support of the United States for the stability of Jordan and Jordan’s central role in maintaining stability and de-escalating tensions throughout the Middle East region,” the White House said in a statement.

Separately, the State Department said the U.S. had arranged with local groups to secure the shuttered U.S. Embassy compound in Damascus, which suspended operations in 2012 and had been until recently under the protection of the Czech Embassy.

The Biden administration said Tuesday it will recognize and support a new Syrian government that renounces terrorism, destroys chemical weapons stocks and protects the rights of minorities and women.

Syrian rebel leader Ahmad al-Sharaa told Reuters that the group he leads, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is working with international organizations to secure possible sites where chemical weapons may be located.

“The United States will recognize and fully support a future Syria government that results from this process,” Blinken said. “We stand prepared to lend all appropriate support to all of Syria’s diverse communities and constituencies.”

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, in Saudi Arabia on the 9th December 2024, said HTS must reject “terrorism and violence” before Britain can engage with the group designated “terrorist” by Britain.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron on the 9th December 2024 discussed the possibility of cooperating with Syria’s new leaders following the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad, the chancellery said.

“Both agreed that they were ready to cooperate with the new leadership on the basis of fundamental human rights and the protection of ethnic and religious minorities,” Berlin said in a statement.

They reiterated “the importance of preserving Syria’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.”

The two leaders agreed to work together to strengthen the European Union’s commitment to Syria, particularly by supporting an “inclusive political process” in Syria in coordination with Middle East partners, Berlin said.

German ministers on the 14th December 2024 said supporters of fallen President Bashar al-Assad’s government would face justice in Germany if they fled to the country after the toppling of the Syrian strongman.

“We will hold all of the regime’s henchmen to account for their terrible crimes with the full force of the law,” Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said.

Germany has convicted several al-Assad government officials under the principle of universal jurisdiction, which allows for trials regardless of where the offenses were committed. In January 2022, Germany jailed former Syrian colonel Anwar Raslan for life in the first global trial over state-sponsored torture in Syrian prisons.

A year later in February 2023 in Berlin, a member of a government militia arrested in Germany in 2021 also received a life sentence for war crimes. A Syrian doctor, Alaa Moussa, is also currently on trial in Frankfurt accused of torture, murder and crimes against humanity in military hospitals.

Leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) major democracies “stand ready to support a transition process that leads to credible, inclusive, and non-sectarian governance” in Syria, a statement said on Thursday.

The G7 said a political transition after the end of Bashar Assad’s 24-year authoritarian rule had to ensure “respect for the rule of law, universal human rights, including women’s rights, the protection of all Syrians, including religious and ethnic minorities, transparency and accountability.”

“The G7 will work with and fully support a future Syrian government that abides by those standards and results from that process,” the statement added.

Syrian New Governments Apparent Response

Syria’s new government has told business leaders it will adopt a free-market model and integrate the country into the global economy in a major shift from decades of corrupt state control, the head of the biggest Syrian business lobby said on Tuesday.

“It will be a free-market system based on competition,” Bassel Hamwi, head of the Damascus Chambers of Commerce, told Reuters in an interview, three days after opposition forces toppled President Bashar al-Assad, ending a 54-year family autocracy.

Prominent Syrian businessmen, who like much of the nation are looking for clues to how Syria’s new administration will run the country, welcomed signals that the economy would be open to investment vital to rebuilding from widespread devastation after 13 years of civil war.

Reuters spoke to four prominent Syrian businessmen who said the message from the new authorities appeared encouraging and a far cry from a system that had been heavily controlled by a small cohort of loyalist businessmen close to the al-Assads.

Before street protests against al-Assad’s rule erupted in March 2011, the Syrian pound stood at around 50 to the dollar. It is now at over 15,000, turbo-charging inflation that leaves many shopkeepers struggling to price their goods.

The West has no reason to fear Syria following the ousting of Bashar Assad’s regime, Abu Mohammed Al-Jolani, leader of the group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), told Sky News on 11th December 2024. “The fear stemmed from the regime’s presence. Syria is now on a path toward development, reconstruction, and stability,” he said during an interview in Damascus with Sky News’ international news editor, Zein Jaafar, and Middle East producer, Celine Al-Khaldi.

Hezbollah

Hezbollah played a significant role in supporting the Syrian government during the Syrian civil war. Hezbollah deployed thousands of fighters to Syria, providing crucial ground support to Syrian government forces.

They helped in planning and executing military operations, particularly in key battles such as those in Aleppo and Homs. Hezbollah trained Syrian troops and allied militias, enhancing their combat effectiveness against rebel factions. They facilitated the movement of arms and supplies from Iran to Syria, ensuring a steady flow of resources.

Hezbollah's combat experience from previous conflicts, particularly with Israel, was invaluable in the Syrian context. Hezbollah's involvement was instrumental in helping the Syrian government regain control over significant territories and maintain its hold on power.

Iranian Ambassador to Syria Hossein Akbari said that the goal of the current terrorist attacks in Syria is taking revenge against the country for its support for the Axis of Resistance.

Regarding the current developments in Syria, Akbari said that there is a clear connection between the attacks by armed groups in Syria and the damage inflicted on the Zionist regime in Lebanon.

He added that the advanced equipment used by these armed individuals indicates they receive support from European and Western countries. The envoy stated that the purpose of the ongoing attacks was to take revenge on Syria for its support for the Axis of Resistance and Hezbollah. The Iranian ambassador added that the United States is also seeking to exert security pressure on the Syrian government in the southern provinces.

On the 2nd December 2024 Lebanon's Hezbollah, reeling from a devastating war with Israel, would not be sending fighters to northern Syria for now as the Syrian army tries to fend off a surprising offensive by opposition fighters, according to a report published on Monday.

Hezbollah does not currently intend to send fighters to northern Syria to support the Syrian army there, three sources familiar with the Iran-backed group's thinking told Reuters on Monday.

According to Reuters, citing three sources familiar with Hezbollah's thinking, no requests had been made by Syria for intervention or help.

On the 5th December 2024 Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem said that his Lebanese militant group, an ally of Syrian President Bashar Assad, would be by Damascus’s side as Islamist-led militants press a sweeping offensive.

In a televised address, Qassem denounced “terrorist groups” who want to “destroy Syria again... to bring down the government” and “create chaos.” “They will not be able to achieve their goals despite what they have done in past days, and we as Hezbollah will be by Syria’s side in thwarting the goals of this aggression as much as we can,” Qassem said.

A source close to Hezbollah said that the group had deployed 2,000 fighters to a part of Syria near the border with Lebanon. “Hezbollah sent 2,000 fighters to the Qusayr area… to defend its positions there and has not yet participated in any battles.”

On the 7th December 2024 there were reports that dozens of fighters from Hezbollah’s elite Radwan forces fled the Syrian city of Homs following a decision made by the Syrian army that the city could no longer be defended, a Syrian army officer informed Reuters.

Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah group withdrew from the Syrian city of Qusayr on the border with Lebanon before militant forces seized it, Syrian army sources said on the 8th December 2024.

At least 150 armoured vehicles carrying hundreds of Hezbollah fighters left the city, long a point on the route for arms transfers and fighters moving in and out of Syria, the sources said. Israel hit one of the convoys as it was departing, one source said.

An anti-Hezbollah Lebanese Nidaa al-Watan newspaper reported that the terror group helped hundreds of Syrian intelligence officers flee to Lebanon in the days before forces opposed to Syria’s strongman Bashar al-Assad captured Damascus on 8th December 2024. Lebanon was seething at the price it was paying to keep some of the top officials safe, and expressed fears that the presence of Assad’s allies in Lebanon could draw Israeli strikes.

Some Lebanese leaders also expressed concern over the report, which followed the discovery of a large secret tunnel in Syria’s Qalamoun Mountains, a Hezbollah stronghold near Damascus and the border with Lebanon, apparently used to store and transfer arms. However, the officers who escaped to Lebanon were said to travel via overland border crossings.

Citing two security officials — whose nationality was unclear — Nidaa al-Watan on the 9th December 2024 reported that Hezbollah had given Lebanese license plates to Assad officials who entered Lebanon via the Masnaa border crossing. The newspaper also said that thousands of Syrian security officials were estimated to have crossed into Lebanon illegally via the Hermel crossing, farther north.

According to the officials cited in the report, the smuggling of Syrian officers was facilitated by bribes to members of Lebanon’s General Security Directorate.

A source familiar with Hezbollah thinking was cited as saying fighters from the group had mostly left the country in October 2024 to confront an Israeli air and ground assault at home.

The Iranian IRGC had withdrawn many of their senior officers and advisors in January/February 2024 due to an increase of Israeli air-strikes. Reuters described it as the IRGC had suffered one of their most bruising spells in Syria since arriving a decade ago. Since December 2024, Israeli strikes have killed more than half a dozen of their members, among them one of the Guards' top intelligence generals. Iran's decision to pull out senior officers is driven partly by its aversion to being sucked directly into a conflict bubbling across the Middle East.

a senior regional security official briefed by Tehran - said senior Iranian commanders had left Syria along with dozens of mid-ranking officers, describing it as a downsizing of the presence.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that despite Israel's aggressive manoeuvres, resistance movements like Hezbollah possess the capability to defend themselves and maintain resistance for extended periods.

On the 14th December 2024 Hezbollah head Naim Qassem says the Lebanese terror group has lost its supply route through Syria following the toppling of President Bashar al-Assad. Qassem doesn’t mention Assad by name and says the group cannot make a judgment on Syria’s new ruling power until the country stabilizes.

The Hezbollah chief also says Syria’s new rulers should not recognize neighbouring Israel or establish ties with it.

“We hope that this new party in power will see Israel as an enemy and not normalize relations with it,” Qassem says in a televised speech, his first since was toppled Assad following an offensive launched on the 27th November 2024, the same day that a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect.

The Syrian government cautioned against propaganda claims circulating on social media. 

The Syrian state television reported that “the death toll among terrorists of Jabhat al-Nusra and its affiliated groups has risen to approximately 2,500 over the past week, as the army, supported by Syrian and Russian air forces, repelled their attacks.” The report was reported through the Tehran Times on the 7th December 2024.

Later, a Syrian military source indicated that “terrorists are resorting to entering some villages and areas, requesting permission from residents to film for a few minutes before leaving. They use these clips in their media propaganda to falsely portray control over these areas, aiming to affect the morale of our people and our valiant army.”

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said it “documented, since the launch of the... (opposition) operation on the 27th November 2024 that 910 people had been killed.” The toll included 138 civilians, 380 Syrian troops and allied fighters, and 392 opposition fighters.

Somewhat different to the numbers exaggerated by the Tehran Times on behalf of the Syrian government

Syria and its Involvement with the Drugs Trade 

Captagon

Captagon[1], the trade name for a drug called fenethylline, was developed in Germany in 1961 as a treatment for a range of conditions, including attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in children, depression and narcolepsy.

Fenethylline is a combination of amphetamine, a central nervous system stimulant, and theophylline, a caffeine-related chemical known as a bronchodilator.

Captagon is recognizable by the distinctive twin half-moons logo, which gives the drug its Arabic Street name, “Abu Hilalain,” Father of the Two Crescents, the pills are easy to make, readily available and relatively cheap to buy.

Captagon has many uses.  It can suppress trauma, improve productivity, and induce a euphoric feeling. The drug is popular among different demographics in the Gulf, with some people using it recreationally, “but also amongst university students studying for exams to increase productivity. Captagon has been seen across the region used by taxi drivers, by lorry drivers and truck drivers as well as workers that are looking to work a second shift.” The drug “stimulates the nervous system and affects vital body organs, including the brain.”

One worrying side to taking Captagon is it also endowed some users with an indifference to pain and fear and a dangerous sense of invincibility — qualities that have reportedly led to the drug being adopted by the foot soldiers of Daesh (Islamic State) and other terror groups in the region.

Taking the drug lowers inhibitions to violence and prolongs a fighter's ability to remain alert for combat. “There was no fear any more after I took Captagon,” one interviewed fighter said. One Kurdish special forces soldier who fought against Daesh during the siege of Kobani from 2014 to 2015 said the enemy fighters “would consume the pills before launching large-scale brutal attacks, or prior to a suicide attack.” The former soldier said that “on most of their suicide missions, the person doing it would be high on Captagon. It gave them the courage to do so.” Small bags of the drug were found on dead terrorists.

Terrorist organizations, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and ISIS, increasingly rely on Captagon both for financial and operational purposes. The drug enhances combatants’ aggression and fearlessness while serving as a source of income through trafficking. During Operation Swords of Iron, evidence of Captagon use was found on the bodies of terrorists, highlighting the drug’s role in fuelling violent acts.

At first, it was seen as a miracle drug, and Captagon was prescribed legally for about 20 years. During the 1980s, however, in the face of increasing evidence that it was addictive and could cause multiple unwelcome side-effects, it was banned by various medical authorities around the world.

Captagon is found to cause strokes, memory loss, and nerve damage, auditory, visual and sensory hallucinations. It also negatively impacts cardiovascular health, leading to increased heart rates, and high blood pressure, as well as damage to liver and kidney functions.

The dramatic collapse of Bashar Assad’s Syrian regime threw the light into the dark corners of his rule, including the industrial-scale export of the banned drug Captagon. Victorious Islamist-led fighters seized military bases and distribution hubs for the amphetamine-type stimulant, which has flooded the black market across the Middle East.

On the 11th December 2024, HTS fighters allowed AFP journalists into a warehouse at a quarry on the outskirts of Damascus, where Captagon pills were concealed inside electrical components for export.

In a cavernous garage beneath the warehouse and loading bays, thousands of dusty beige Captagon pills were packed into the copper coils of brand-new household voltage stabilizers. “We found a large number of devices that were stuffed with packages of Captagon pills meant to be smuggled out of the country. It’s a huge quantity. It’s impossible to tell,” black-masked fighter Abu Malek Al-Shami said.

Above, in the warehouse, crates of cardboard boxes stood ready to allow the traffickers to disguise their cargo as pallet-loads of standard goods, alongside sacks and sacks of caustic soda. Caustic soda, or sodium hydroxide, is a key ingredient in the production of methamphetamine, another stimulant.

Abu Mohammed al-Jolani promised to clean shop. “Syria is being purified,” he said, referring to the country’s regional reputation as a narco-state, saying Assad’s Syria had “become the world’s leading source of Captagon,” an amphetamine-type drug, and criminality through the region.

Speaking a few hours later, Biden said he had heard Jolani “saying the right things,” but insisted the rebel leader be judged by his actions.

Jolani’s in a message tuned for regional powers that he’ll need to keep onside, promising to clean shop. “Syria is being purified,” he said, referring to the country’s regional reputation as a narco-state, saying Assad’s Syria had “become the world’s leading source of Captagon,” an amphetamine-type drug, and criminality through the region.

In a video circulated on social media, Syrian rebels were shown storming what appeared to be a substantial Captagon manufacturing laboratory. Rebels are seen expressing their outrage at the production site, saying, “A bunch of pigs. All of this is poison, hallucinogenic pills."

In recent years, Syria has emerged as a global centre for Captagon production. The country’s prolonged civil war has created fertile ground for the drug’s manufacture, with illegal factories producing millions of pills annually.

These are smuggled into Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and Jordan. In Saudi Arabia, Captagon is reportedly popular among truck drivers seeking alertness and is even used by teenagers. Despite Islamic fatwas prohibiting its consumption, the drug remains widespread and is sometimes seen as a survival tool in extreme situations.

Iran Claims it is in talks with the Syrian Rebels

With the fall of the Assad government threatening Iran's key strategic foothold in the Levant, Tehran has signalled an interest in forging ties with Syria's new power holders, according to an Iranian official.

Reuters was said to have reported that talks had begun in an attempt to "prevent a hostile trajectory" between the countries after a rapid takeover saw the 50-year Assad family rule collapse in days.

The senior official told Reuters that Iran's clerical rulers, facing the loss of an important ally in Damascus and the return of Donald Trump to the white House in January 2025, were open to engaging with Syria's new leaders.

According to the Institute for the Study of War the Iranian regime does not appear to have assumed a clear strategy for how to approach the HTS-led interim government in Syria, as exemplified by the contradicting reports regarding the safety of Shia holy sites following the fall of the Assad regime.

Iran had multiple military bases across Syria, having controlled airports and sea ports which have been a key smuggling route to Iran’s military allies in the region, including its largest, Hezbollah in Lebanon. It is not clear if there is an Iranian presence left in Assad's traditional bastion, the Alawite coastal regions.

Syria was also a location for Iran’s oil sales amid global sanctions, allowing the Islamic Republic to circumvent the crippling economic grip imposed by the US and other nations.

Iran will spare no effort to help establish peace and stability to Syria, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said in a statement following the fall of the government of Bashar al-Assad in Damascus.

Iran, a key ally of Bashar al-Assad throughout the Syrian conflict, said on the 8th December 2024 it expects the “friendly” relations with Syria to continue even after al-Assad’s fall in Damascus.

“The relations between the two nations of Iran and Syria have a long history and have always been friendly, and it is expected that these relations will continue,” a foreign ministry statement said.

(Whenever Iran attempts to make inroads to other nations it always uses the term, “long history between the two nations.” What they tend to miss out is that over the history of Persia/Iran there have been good longstanding relations with different nations. Since the 1979 Iranian revolution that stopped with everything changing and a new era of relations needed to be forged between the same countries but with the Islamic Republic)

Iran could be just playing to the crowd in order to judge the reaction by the new leaders of Syria. Iran's media had switched from calling the Sunni rebels “infidel terrorists” to “armed groups” and reported that they had so far treated Shiite minorities well.

The Islamic Republic of Iran desperately needs to have good relations with Syria. However, Iran has never had any real interest in Syria. Iran has only been interested in Syria because of its location and easy access to the Levant where it can rearm its proxies.

In order to keep the “axis of resistance” Iran critically needs Syria so that it can continue arming its proxies and continue its fight against Israel.

Like every other nation and government elsewhere Iran has relations, they are all pawns in the Iranian game of chess to be sacrificed to obtain its revolutionary goals of dominating West Asia, removing the United States, the United Kingdom and others and eliminating Israel.

In an article on the 9th December 2024 in the Tehran Times “the day after” Damascus had fallen they claimed; An ex-official of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force revealed that Iran warned Assad two months prior to the recent insurgency, letting the President know that the U.S. and Turkey were brewing something. It remains unclear whether Assad, now residing in Russia after receiving asylum, disregarded warnings of the impending attack or lacked the capacity to prepare his army for battle.

Before the collapse of the Syrian regime on the 8th December 2024, several elements of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were actively involved in Syria. These included:

IRGC Ground Forces: Deployed to support Syrian government forces in various battles and strategic operations.

Quds Force: Played a key role in providing military training, strategic planning, and coordination for Syrian government forces.

Logistical Support Units: Facilitated the transfer of weapons, ammunition, and other supplies from Iran to Syrian forces.

Specialized Units: Operated facilities for the development and storage of ballistic missiles and drones, which were used in the conflict.

These elements were crucial in bolstering the Syrian government's efforts against opposition forces and militant groups.

Yet Iran did nothing. Their forces started to abandon their posts on the 6th December 2024. Among those fleeing to Iraq and Lebanon were senior leaders of the Quds Force, the external wing of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). In addition, IRGC, Iranian diplomatic staff, their families, and civilians had also been relocated, according to Iranian officials.

The Islamic Students News Agency on the 9th December 2024 that “the militants notified Turkey about their intention to launch the attack around six months ago, Reuters reported on Monday, citing a “diplomat in the region” and an alleged member of the anti-Damascus groups.”

A discrepancy between the two Tehran government state-controlled propaganda outlets.

Iran, trying to mend bridges, said it expected its “friendly” ties with Syria to continue, with its foreign minister saying the ousted president “never asked” for Tehran’s help against the opposition offensive. A cop-out retort.

However, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani praised his fighters, claiming they took charge of Syria without any foreign support or interference. In a pointed reference to Russian and Iranian backing of the Assad regime, he said all former “colonizers” had failed to control the country. Both Iran and Russian forces have been responsible for numerous rebel deaths.

Russia

Russia intervened militarily on al-Assad’s side in 2015, in its biggest foray in the Middle East since the Soviet Union’s collapse. Operating from an airbase in Latakia province, Russian air power decisively tilted the conflict al-Assad’s way.

Coordinated with Iran, the deployment expanded a Russian military presence dating to the Cold War, when the Soviet Union established a naval base at the Syrian Mediterranean port of Tartus.

Russian forces have also had a presence on the ground in government-held areas, with Russian military police deploying during attempts to de-escalate fighting.

Russia is continuing to support al-Assad, the Kremlin has said.

During the rebel advance on the road to Damascus reports of Russian military aircraft attacking rebel groups, this came from the Iranian Tasnim News Agency on the 30th November 2024. They reported that 200 militants had been killed within a day and this was according to the Russian Ministry of Defence but does not where the Ministry gave the press conference.

As the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) gained ground the Tehran Times reported that The Syrian army, backed by the firepower of Russian air support, is now battling to reclaim the lost ground.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reaffirmed Iran's steadfast support for the Syrian government, army, and people, a commitment that dates back to 2011 and significantly contributed to the defeat of Daesh terrorists by the autumn of 2017. Its worthy of note here that Iran did assist in the defeat of Da’esh but Iran also saw the significance of the chaos and moved to assist Assad not only during this point but also when the Arab Spring first came to Syria in 2011.

2011 was the year that the civil war took place as Assad backed by Iranian and Russian forces assisted in keeping Assad in power and later became the main hub for Iran and distributing weapons and funds for Iranian proxies.

Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Major General Mohammad Hossein Baqeri in phone calls with senior Syrian, Russian and Iraqi commanders discussed ways to assist the Syrian army in the fight against the resurgence of terrorist groups. The top Iranian general on Tuesday held separate telephone conversations with Russian Defence Minister Andrey Belousov, Chief of the General Staff of the Iraqi Armed Forces Abdul Amir Rashid Yarallah, and Chief of the General Staff of the Syrian Army Abdul Karim Mahmoud Ibrahim to discuss the latest developments in Syria, a number of whose areas have fallen to terrorist Takfiri groups recently.

On the 6th December 2024 Tasnim News Agency reported that Russian and Syrian air forces killed 300 militants in coordinated airstrikes across multiple regions in Syria within the past 24 hours, according to the Russian Ministry of Defence. The Syrian army supported by the Russian Aerospace Force delivered missile strikes against gathering areas, control posts and positions of militants, Captain Oleg Ignasyuk, the deputy chief of the Russian Centre for Reconciliation of the Opposing Parties in Syria, said at a briefing.

The Russian embassy in Damascus advised citizens in the country they are still able to leave on commercial flights, amid fears that the Syrian capital may be the next city to fall. Russia, which has a naval base in the Syrian port of Tartus, would loath to withdraw its military personnel and assets from the country.

The Kremlin, which convened a conference call with reporters on the 8th December 2024 to set out its response to a call by US. President-elect Donald Trump for immediate talks on Ukraine, made no comment on the unfolding situation in Syria, saying its stance had been set out in the foreign ministry statement.

The ministry’s statement said Russia’s two military facilities in Syria had been put on a state of high alert, but played down an immediate risk to them. “There is currently no serious threat to their security,” the ministry said.

Russia operates the Hmeimim air base in Syria’s Latakia province which it has used to launch airstrikes against opposition fighters in the past, and has a naval facility at Tartous on the coast. The Tartous facility is Russia’s only Mediterranean repair and replenishment hub, and Moscow has used Syria as a staging post to fly its military contractors in and out of Africa.

Losing Tartous in particular would be a serious blow to Russia’s ability to project power in the Middle East, the Mediterranean and Africa.

The Foreign Ministry said Moscow was alarmed by events in Syria. “We urge all parties involved to refrain from the use of violence and to resolve all issues of governance through political means,” its statement said. “In that regard, the Russian Federation is in contact with all groups of the Syrian opposition.”

Al-Arabia News reported that Syrian opposition leaders had guaranteed the safety of Russian military bases and diplomatic missions inside Syria, Russian news agencies reported on Sunday, citing a Kremlin source.

The TASS state news agency said: “Russian officials are in contact with representatives of the armed Syrian opposition, whose leaders have guaranteed the safety of Russian military bases and diplomatic institutions on the territory of Syria.”

On the 9th December 2024 the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) reported that the former head of Syria, Bashar al-Assad was in Russia. ISNA, citing a source in the Kremlin, several Russian media outlets reported on Sunday (08 Dec 24) that the Russian government has granted Assad and his family asylum.

“President al-Assad of Syria has arrived in Moscow. Russia has granted them (him and his family) asylum on humanitarian grounds,” the Interfax news agency quoted an unnamed source as saying.

To further the Assad humiliation a group of men at the Syrian embassy in Moscow raised the opposition flag there on the 9th December 2024 the day after the fall of the Assad regime, an AFP journalist saw. Standing on the embassy balcony, the men clapped and sang as they raised the green, red, black and white Syrian opposition flag under falling snow.

“Today the embassy opened and is working normally under a new flag,” an embassy representative told TASS state news agency. Russia was a key ally of Syria’s ousted president, Bashar al-Assad.

The Federation for Defence of Democracies (FDD) reported on the 13th December 2024 that officials from Russia and representatives of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) were conducting direct negotiations over whether Moscow can retain control over its two military bases in Syria, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said during a press conference on the 12 December 2024. Bogdanov said that negotiations were “proceeding in a constructive fashion,” urging HTS to keep its promise to “guard against all excesses” during its takeover.

However, on the 14th December a Russian cargo plane departed from Russia’s air base in Latakia for Libya, a Syrian security official stationed outside the facility said. The official stationed at the gate told Reuters that additional Russian departures from the Hmeimim air base in Syria’s coastal Latakia province are expected in the coming days.

On the 13th December, satellite images showed Russia moving military equipment at Syria’s Hmeimim air base, with two Antonov AN-124 cargo planes visible.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) the prospects for Russia's continued military presence in Syria remain unclear as reports that Russia is evacuating its military assets from Syria continue. Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) stated on the 14th December 2024 that "hundreds" of Russian soldiers cannot reach Hmeimim Air Base from Homs Governorate out of fear that Russian forces will come under fire from unspecified actors. The GUR stated that the Russian Ministry of Defence’s (MoD) Africa Corps arrived in Syria to protect Russian forces moving towards Russia's bases on the western coast and that Russian Colonel Dmitry Motrenko is negotiating with military contingents in Syria from other unspecified states in order to secure guarantees of "immunity" for Russian soldiers waiting at the Tiyas Air Base west of Palmyra. The GUR also stated that roughly 1,000 Russian personnel left Damascus on the 13th December 2024 in a column heading towards the Port of Tartus and Hmeimim Air Base, and ISW observed footage on the 13th December of Russian military convoys moving from Damascus and other areas in southern Syria, likely towards the two main Russian bases.

Reuters reported on the 14th December that a "Syrian security official" stationed near Hmeimim Air Base stated that at least one cargo plane flew out of the base on the 14th December 2024 bound for Libya. Syrian military and security sources reportedly stated that Russia is withdrawing some heavy equipment and senior officers from the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) to Moscow but is currently not planning to permanently pull out of the Port of Tartus or Hmeimim Air Base. A Russian milblogger posted photos and footage on the 14th December purportedly showing Russian military assets still operating at the Russian helicopter base at Qamishli in northeastern Syria, and a Russian source claimed on December 14 that Russian forces have withdrawn from their base in Kobani in northern Syria.

The complex nature of the interim Syrian government is likely resulting in conflicting reports about whether Russia is engaged in talks with Syrian opposition groups.

According to the Kremlin and reported in the Al-Arabiya News outlet on the 16th December 2024, that the Kremlin said that no final decisions had yet been taken on the fate of Russia’s military bases in Syria and that it was in contact with those in charge of the country.

Iran at the United Nations

On the 4th December 2024 Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations blamed the US for supporting the resurgence of terrorism in Syria, saying Washington seeks to turn terrorism into a tool of foreign policy to advance its political agenda. Addressing a meeting of the UN Security Council, held on Tuesday to discuss the recent developments and terrorist attacks in Syria, Saeed Iravani said external supports and intervention, spearheaded by the US, have perpetuated terrorism in Syria and undermined the Arab country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The Islamic Republic of Iran expresses deep concern over the escalating situation in Syria. Recent developments, particularly the coordinated terrorist operations by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a designated branch of Al-Qaeda, also known as Jabhat al-Nusra, have gravely threatened Syria’s sovereignty and stability.

The Islamic Republic of Iran remains steadfast in its support for the Syrian government and its people in their just and determined fight against terrorism.

Iran fully recognizes and supports Syria's sovereign right to combat and eliminate terrorist groups like HTS, which bring widespread destruction, chaos, and suffering wherever they operate.

We emphasize that all measures to combat terrorism must be undertaken in coordination with and with the consent of the Syrian Government, ensuring full respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic.

With between $30-50 billion dollars invested in Syria Iran would use the highest office to keep the dictator Bashar al-Assad in power and secure their money and to be able to continue supporting their proxies against Israel and American assets in the country. As for the fight against terrorism, Iran is one of the worlds state sponsors of terrorism.

Bashar al-Assad Speaks Out

Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad on the 26th December 2024 made his first public remarks since he was overthrown by rebels on the 8th December 2024. He claimed he’d had no plans to leave the country after the fall of Damascus a week ago but the Russian military evacuated him after its base in western Syria came under attack.

Assad said in a statement, that he left Damascus on the morning of the 8th December, hours after insurgents stormed the capital. He said that he left in coordination with Russian allies to the Hmeimim air base in the coastal province of Latakia, where he wanted to keep fighting, but after the Russian base came under attack by drones that night, the Russians decided to move him to Moscow. (There are no reports of Russian bases being attacked by rebel forces)

“I did not leave the country as part of a plan as it was reported earlier,” Assad reportedly said and reported by the Times of Israel.

“At no point during these events did I consider stepping down or seeking refuge nor was such proposal made by any individual or party,” he added in an English version of his statement. “The only course of action was to continue fighting against the terrorist onslaught.”

“I have never sought positions for personal gain,” he said, adding that he had “always considered myself the custodian of the national project, supported by the faith of the Syrian people,” and carried this out “to the very last moment.”

“This does not, in any way, diminish my profound sense of belonging to Syria and her people,” he concluded. “It is a belonging filled with hope that Syria will once again be free and independent.”

However, in another report by the Times of Israel on the 13th December 2024 Bashar gives a different angle of events.

Reuters posted that Bashar al-Assad confided in almost no one about his plans to flee Syria, officials and even relatives were deceived or kept in the dark. Hours before he escaped for Moscow, Assad assured a meeting of about 30 army and security chiefs at the defence ministry on the 7th December 2024 that Russian military support was on its way and urged ground forces to hold out, according to a commander who was present.

Assad told his presidential office manager on Saturday (14 Dec 24) when he finished work, he was going home but instead headed to the airport, according to an aide in his inner circle. He also called his media adviser, Buthaina Shaaban, and asked her to come to his home to write him a speech, the aide said. She arrived to find no one was there.

“Assad didn’t even make a last stand. He didn’t even rally his own troops,” said Nadim Houri, executive director of the Arab Reform Initiative regional think tank. “He let his supporters face their own fate.”

Assad himself fled Damascus by plane on the 8th December 2024, flying under the radar with the aircraft’s transponder switched off.

Hadi al-Bahra, the head of Syria’s main opposition abroad, said that Assad didn’t convey the reality of the situation to aides back home, citing a source within Assad’s close circle and a regional official.

“He told his commanders and associates after his Moscow trip that military support was coming,” Bahra added. “He was lying to them. The message he received from Moscow was negative.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on the 4th December that Russia had spent a lot of effort in helping stabilize Syria in the past but its priority now was the conflict in Ukraine.

Assad never requested that Tehran deploy forces in Syria though, according to two senior Iranian officials who said he understood that Israel could use any such intervention as a reason to target Iranian forces in Syria or even Iran itself.

The State of Israel Responds

The Media Line reported that following the collapse of the Syrian regime and the reported flight of Bashar Assad to Moscow, opposition factions have taken control of Damascus. In response, Israel has launched dozens of focused airstrikes on military sites throughout Syria to prevent sensitive weapons from reaching groups it considers threats and to protect its borders.

Israel’s advance in the provinces of Suwayda and Quneitra has effectively ended the previous disengagement agreement with Syria. According to Israeli officials, these operations are intended to keep advanced weaponry out of opposition hands and ensure no hostile factions gain the upper hand.

The Israeli Air Force has targeted a range of weaponry, including Scud and cruise missiles, surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles (commonly known as drones), combat aircraft, attack helicopters, radars, tanks, and aircraft hangars. According to Israeli military spokesperson Avichay Adraee, “Operation Arrow of Bashan” holds significant military and political importance for Israel. Adraee stated that the campaign has destroyed over 70% of Syria’s military capabilities.

Israel also struck two Syrian naval sites in the ports of Mina Al-Bayda and Latakia, where 15 naval vessels were docked. In recent days, more than 350 Israeli airstrikes have targeted Damascus, Homs, Tartus, Latakia, and Palmyra.

Israel was basically making sure that no Iranian proxy would ever be able to attack Israel in the same way that Hamas had done on the 23rd October 2023 and that no Iranian proxy past or present would be able to support each other. The actions would also stop weapons falling into the hands of Hezbollah.

Summary

It was thought that after the Israel/Hezbollah ceasefire came into force on the 27th December 2024 that Syria could be next. However, on the same day that the Hezbollah/Israel ceasefire came into effect the HTS fighters took all guess work away. The fall of Assad and a key element in the Iranian ‘axis of resistance’ disappeared.

Iran will no longer have a direct route by land to the Levant therefore putting a strain on supplying its proxies in order to keep being a viable threat to Israel. Iran would have to rely on old smuggling routes which maybe intact or need to be resurrected due to its inability to have land and air routes directly into Syria.

Even before the land and air corridors into Syria they would use Syria as a hub but it was slower and more fraught with being discovered.

Weapon and missile logistics would be more difficult for the proxies to obtain and therefore keep being an extensive threat to Israel and American assets in the Levant.

Hezbollah, Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), the Palestine Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) and other terrorist groups will take longer to become actively strong against Israel giving Israel the upper hand in combatting Iranian backed terrorist groups in the future.

The Islamic Republic of Iran is now in a weakened state due to its inability to strongly resupply its proxies. Its other proxies must surely look at Iran and ask themselves what did the government of Tehran do for Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria when they needed help the most. All Iran did was to send an envoy to Lebanon and Syria to show their support.

That helped.

What is Iran doing to assist the Houthis who basically are on their own at the moment.

There are rumours that there is discontent on the home front giving would-be groups a thought of rising up against the theocratic government.

It’s really ironic when you think about all that is going on in the Middle East, West Asia and the Levant. The main culprit for all the ongoing trouble in and around the Middle East and beyond is the Islamic Republic of Iran. They had many proxies in those areas mentioned, all funded, trained and supplied weapons by the Tehran government.

The jury is still out as to what Iran knew before that barbaric day of the 7th October 2023 when Hamas, the PFLP, the PIJ and other Iran-backed terrorist groups that conducted one of the worst savage acts against a nation that was in to all intense and purposes having a quiet peaceful day doing no harm to anyone.

Yahya Sinwar the Palestinian terrorist who was the mastermind behind that disgusting horrific attack on the peaceful people of Israel. Is now dead along with many other Hamas perpetrators of that savage day.

Little did he and his masters conceive what the future held. They would never believe that it would lead to the destruction of the very forces Iran had set up to destroy its one enemy, Israel.

Israel has managed to destroy the Iranian-backed terrorist organisations that Iran set up to destroy Israel. Iran’s number one terrorist group has had its senior and middle leaders killed off leaving their command and control in disarray. No command structure means no leadership so Hezbollah is currently a leaderless terrorist group. They have a figurehead, Naim Qassem, who is not a charismatic leader who originally wanted to stay in the background not to be forced to the front as a leader.

Iran is responsible for it being attacked by the very country it has vowed to destroy and lost. Israel had destroyed Iran’s air defence system, pushed back its ability to product solid fuelled missiles production and damaged one of Iran’s pride and joy nuclear facilities.

Iran being utterly foolish claimed in the past that no one would dare attack them as they had the finest missile defence system going claiming that it was the largest and strongest in West Asia. Five hundred unmanned aerial weapons launched at Israel of which none claimed any serious damage. Israel’s first attack on Israel claimed one air defence system and penetrated right into Iran and close to one of its nuclear sites. Clearly a warning that Iran failed to take into account.

Their logistics routes from Iran through Iraq and into Syria has now been brought to a halt and no longer exists due to the previous dictator President Bashar Assad being overthrown by the very people he vowed to destroy with the assistance of Russia and Assad’s backer, Iran.

The Islamic Republic of Iran even claimed in April 2023 that big events were just around the corner. They had no idea how big the events were going to be, but they believed that the destruction of Israel was going to happen soon.

Iran believed that once the massacre of the Israelis started on the 7th October 2023 that all of their six armies that the deceased IRGC Quds force commander Qasem Soleimani had set up would rise up together and wipe Israel off of the map. Therefore, the second Supreme Leader of the 1979 Iranian revolution would have achieved the revolutionary goal of the first Supreme Leader and would go down in the Islamic Republic history as the man responsible for Israel’s demise.

The Palestinian Yahya Sinwar who Iran put great faith in and funded, trained and supplied the very weapons in which to conduct the task of instigating the attack on Israel was in fact the main reason for the destruction of Iran and its proxies.

Had Sinwar not been hell bent on achieving the destruction of Israel by orchestrating the attack on the 7th October 2023 then Iran would still have a strong presence in West Asia. As it is now the State of Israel has that accolade.

Iran with its revolutionary ideology of spending billions of dollars setting up the destruction of Israel has now found that they are responsible for their own slow downfall.

No matter what the Islamic Republic of Iran does in the future they will never be able to be as strong and dangerous as they were before the 7th October 2023. The only group that is responsible for the position that Iran is now in is Iran itself.

Their five pillars of terrorism, Lebanon, Syria, Palestinian territories, Iraq and Yemen are going to slowly being eradicated.

The one remaining group that has not been strongly targeted is the puppet master itself. The Islamic Republic of Iran once described by the United States House of Representatives as the “monarchic dictatorship and religious tyranny” with a rights group referring to Iran as a “medieval regime” after conducting public executions its days must be in short supply.

Iran is already concerned about the 20th January 2025 when Donald Trump once again takes office. He will remember that Iran had attempted to assassinate him before the 5th November 2024 Presidential Elections.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed solidarity with the Iranian people on the 30th September 2024, noting that the vast majority oppose the Islamic Republic. He also raised the possibility that a new, democratic government will soon rule in Tehran. “When Iran is finally free – and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think – everything will be different,” Netanyahu said in a three-minute video posted on social media. “Our two ancient peoples, the Jewish people and the Persian people, will finally be at peace. Our two countries, Israel and Iran, will be at peace.”

Netanyahu urged Iranians not to let “a small group of fanatic theocrats crush your hopes and your dreams.” He added: “You deserve better. Your children deserve better. The entire world deserves better. I know you don’t support the rapists and murderers of Hamas and Hezbollah, but your leaders do. You deserve more. The people of Iran should know – Israel stands with you. May we together know a future of prosperity and peace.”

On the 12th December 2024 in the Jerusalem Post he reiterated the same message. He ended the message with; "One day, Iran will be free."

Will Iran be on the cards? Israeli Defence Minister Bennett stated in November 2020 that Israel vowed to 'suffocate the head of the Iranian octopus'. "Now we are changing the paradigm," defence minister says. "When the octopus tentacles hit you, you must fight back not just against the tentacles, but also make sure to suffocate the head of the octopus, and the same applies to Iran."

Defence Minister Naftali Bennett warned Iran that Israel will make sure to exact a heavy price over its meddling in the region, vowing to go beyond Tehran's proxies.

While the leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei said the Zionist regime is doomed to eradication, while the spirit of resistance continues to exist. (17th December 2024 Tasnim News Agency)

The world now waits.

Paul Ashley

Further Information

[1]        The Kingdom Vs Captagon Inside Saudi Arabia's war against the drug destroying lives across the Arab world

To read more about the atrocities that Assad father and son conducted against the Syrian population read:

“Syria Atrocities Vs Israeli Atrocities”