The first country with 100% unemployment?

In a world where unemployment has become a stigma that sadly has impacted and still impacts millions of people, a title like this may seem like an unimaginable drama, but on the other side we can be sure that it will be a fulfilled prophecy, if we do nothing to be ready for this scenario.

This possible scenario is the one we are headed, without brakes, and almost inexorably, at least if we assume that technological development will continue.

The question is not if it will happen, but when and which country will be the first, maybe in decades, but with the current speed of change is more than probable that it will be technically “feasible” before mid-century.

At the end what lies beneath this question is competitiveness, and if we shift our view 360º the problem can be turn into an opportunity instead of a nightmare.

If last year, when I was invited to the give the closing keynote lecture at DES | Digital Enterprise Show , I coined the term M.C.E.O (Machine Chief Executive Officer), today I want to go a step further in this journey, that I have been advocating for more than a decade, or what I call the transition to a fully automated world.

I am not talking here about utopias or dystopias or science fiction scripts, but a real possibility that ourselves or next generations will need to deal with, at least to some degree.

For this is fundamental to ask the critical questions about what will need to be done for our country or any country to be the first to “reach” 100% (human) unemployment, while keeping the wellbeing of its citizens. And why not extrapolate it for corporations and individuals.

I think it is the time to raise the awareness on these questions, create scenarios, define strategies and act while it is still possible, the countries that won’t, will go progressively down in GDP and other "lists", the companies that won’t, will loose competitiveness until they disappear and the people that won’t, will add uncertainty to their future wellbeing.

At a country level some of these questions could be:

1.- What is the expected impact of automation in your country over the next 1,5,10,15… years?

2.- Which are the strategic sectors for the transition to a fully automated world?

3.- How to preserve or improve the quality of life of the citizens if there are no jobs?

4.- How to foster automation at all levels?

5.- What will be the legal form of a corporation with 0 employees?

6.- What will be the legal framework in a country with no human employment?

7.- How will it be like a government entity with 0 public servants?

8.- How will it be a fully automated government?

9.- What is the role of “money” in a world without jobs?

10.- How to involve all entities and stakeholders in society before it is too late?

At a corporation level could be:

1.- How do I envision my sector without any human labor?

2.- How will my company be without any human labor?

3.- Do we have an automation plan?

4.- How can me make the initial transition to full automation without layoffs?

5.- Are we capturing all the data that flows through the organization?

6.- What tasks or processes are repeated at any level?

7.- What technologies are needed to automate this organization?

8.- These technologies are available in the market?

9.- If not, what are the “steppingstone” needed for them to exist?

10.- Who will probably create these new technologies?

And for a citizen:

1.- What will I “do” in a world with no employment?

2.- How can I get ready for a world with no employment?

3.- What changes are need for a society to be sustainable (at all levels) without human employment?

4.- Do I have the “eternal” learning mindset?

5.- [Employed] Does my company have an automation plan?

6.- [Employed] How can I automate my work?

7.- [Employed] What tasks or processes I do repeat most?

8.- [Unemployed] Learning to automate will increase my employability?

9.- [Unemployed] What sectors are not fully automated yet?

10.- [Unemployed] What jobs will be last to be automated?

These are only 30 questions to think and reflect about something that is already starting to happen, but surely there are many more.

What are your questions? How will you answer them?

More than the questions, for me is fundamental to focus on how the answers to these questions will change and evolve over the following days, months, and years.

In my field of Artificial Intelligence, I like to thing that almost everything can be framed as a “time series” or data that changes through time, and the same happens to the answers to these questions. The key is detecting the trends in the changes, adapt to them and act accordingly, since at the end the future(s) can be built for good if we act before it is too late.

For now, this is just another human job (but for EVERYONE) to think what we need to change, since this, more than probable, future scenario still can have a positive impact, otherwise it will exacerbate or create new inequalities making the world even more unjust. There are still opportunities if we overcome our gradualism blindness, to avoid masking a change that is already happening, so we can start to act.

As a country or society at large, loosing time with shortsighted, biased, status quo keeper visions or also delimited only by election terms is the perfect recipe to lose irreversibly the possibility to compete and survive, and the same could be extrapolated to other scales.

Having in mind that for me 100% means that we don’t have enough data, the truth is that I don’t know which one will be the first country to have 100% human unemployment, what I wish is that simultaneously it will achieve 100% human wellbeing and not the opposite.

The future will be bad if we build it so, but probably also if we do nothing.

Do we build it for good?

David Vivancos

San Lorenzo de El Escorial, August 30th, 2022

www.vivancos.com