Flexible work preferences persist across the globe even as demand outstrips supply

By Kory Kantenga, Head of Economics, Americas, at LinkedIn

Over the last four years, we have seen huge swings in the global labor market from a historical surge in hiring (“The Great Reshuffle”) to an enduring slowdown. The breakthrough of generative Artificial Intelligence into the workplace has made numerous headlines as have major layoff events amidst seemingly contradictory record levels of job security and growth in the US. Perhaps, no area of our working lives has seen a more enduring upheaval and change than where we work. As the labor market has turned more favorable to employers, we have seen a pullback in offerings of remote work – down from a height of 1 in 5 job postings in 2022 to 1 in 13 job postings in the US today.

In this edition of the State of the Labor Market, we will delve into the latest on the demand for and availability of hybrid and remote work across the globe, starting with checking in on the latest global hiring trends across countries and metros.

Global hiring continues to diverge across regions

Across the globe, hiring continues to show no signs of broad accelerating, however it does appear to be stabilizing in some countries while moderating in others. According to the LinkedIn Hiring Rate, hiring remains well above its pre-pandemic pace in emerging markets, including India, Brazil, and the United Arab Emirates. While hiring continues to taper off in Brazil, hiring looks to be stabilizing in both India and the UAE. Hiring continues to trend downward from above or near pre-pandemic levels in Mexico and Germany. Economic data from Germany continues to point towards a goods-sector driven slowdown there even as its services sector continues to expand. In the Netherlands, hiring continues to slow with no signs of abating in contrast to a host of other countries where the hiring slowdown looks to have moderated. In the US, Canada, France, Australia, and the UK, hiring continues to slow but at a more moderate pace than seen in past months. Even as the slowdown moderates in these countries, the pace of hiring remains slow despite loosening monetary policy.

We revisit which metros appear to have gained (upswing) and lost (downswing) hiring momentum this year. As previously noted, over half of the world’s workforce reside in urban, metropolitan areas, so examining metros provides meaningful insight into the labor market experiences of a sizable number of workers that country-level analysis may obscure. While several metro areas looked to be on the upswing in Brazil at the start of the summer, that trend has since reversed somewhat as we see Belo Horizonte experiencing the second worst downswing among the over 50 metros examined. This downswing is just a reversal of the upswing seen earlier this summer as is also the case for Cleveland which saw a reversal of its early summer upswing. European cities continue to top the list of metros on the downswing with Paris showing the most deterioration followed by London and Berlin. France, Germany, and Italy’s largest cities all continue to see a loss of hiring momentum. Unlike earlier this summer, we now see three cities in the UK (London, Glasgow, and Manchester) losing more momentum compared to other metros across the globe.

Dublin remains near the top of the list of metros on the upswing and remains the only city in Europe to reach the top 10. It comes as no surprise that we see metros in India (Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Kolkata) topping the upswing list as hiring remains well above pre-pandemic levels there. The San Francisco Bay Area and New York City also look to have gained hiring momentum as the top two cities in the Americas on the upswing. As two of the US’ most robust job markets, improvement in the San Francisco Bay Area and New York City may be an early sign of stabilization in the broader US jobs market. However, these cities have seen major swings in the last few years – first with the pandemic and then with the hiring slowdown driven by rising interest rates. Growing US sunbelt metros (Miami-Fort Lauderdale and Nashville) round out the list of top 10 metros on the upswing.

Demand for hybrid and remote continues to outstrip supply across globe

Across the globe, we continue to see the share of applies (demand) to hybrid and remote job postings outstrip the share of remote and job postings (supply) on LinkedIn. While this dynamic remains the headline, we continue to see nuance across countries as they grapple with adjusting to a new normal of work that includes variety in workplace settings. 

Nowhere is this struggle more stark than in the US where nearly 3 in 5 applications go to hybrid and remote job postings even though these jobs only make up 1 in 5 of all job postings. This means there are twice as many job seekers looking for this type of work relative to its availability.

This disparity is driven by remote work where nearly 40% of applications go to only 8% of job postings. So not only does remote work remain in high demand, the competition for these positions has increased dramatically from when remote roles made up 20% of job postings in 2022. Canada exhibits a similar dynamic, however the disparity between the availability and demand for remote or hybrid work remains much less stark. In Mexico and Brazil, we see a much smaller disparity due to near parity between the availability of and demand for hybrid work as well as a much greater availability of remote work among the work available.

Experiences in the demand and availability of hybrid and remote work diverge immensely across Europe. In France, Italy, and Sweden, overall, we see greater parity between the share of hybrid and remote applies relative to the share of hybrid and remote job postings compared to other European countries. In France and Italy, the share of applies going to hybrid roles outstripes the share of hybrid job postings. However, we see the reverse in Sweden and Spain where the relative supply of hybrid job postings outstrips the relative demand for these roles (likely due to stronger demand for remote work in lieu of hybrid). Germany has the starkest divergence as nearly 60% of the applies go to 30% of the job postings for hybrid and remote roles. Germany and Ireland show the largest disparities between the share of applications going to remote roles and the share of remote roles available. Overall, the UK exhibits the highest share of applies going to hybrid and remote roles and one of the highest levels of availability (second behind Spain).

Across the Asia-Pacific region, we also see relative demand for hybrid and remote roles outstrip relative supply, but demand remains subdued compared to the rest of the world. The share of applies going to hybrid and remote roles hovers around or below 40% in India, Japan, and Singapore in contrast to Europe and the Americas where the share of applies to these roles exceed 40% in every country analyzed. In India, the share of hybrid job postings slightly exceeds the share of applies due to higher demand for remote work compared to hybrid work. In Singapore, flexible work is overwhelmingly hybrid in both applies and job postings, while Australia parallels the dynamic seen in Europe and the Americas with relatively higher demand for hybrid and remote work (over half of all applies) than the availability (less than 40% of job postings).

Globally, we see the presence of hybrid and remote work persists despite speculation around its impending demise. Job seekers' overwhelming preference for hybrid and remote work (and especially remote work in the case of the US) continues to incentivize offerings from employers to attract workers. In fact, according to our newly released Work Change Snapshot, in the last year, on average, 63% of all US applications on LinkedIn went to remote and hybrid roles, while job postings for these roles decreased by 13%. Though the workforce has endured whiplash from abundance to scarcity in remote roles, hybrid has emerged as a mainstay in the jobs available even as the absolute number of job postings decline in many markets.

Worker sentiment rebounds but remains downbeat

As hiring continued to slow and workers experienced a clawback in flexible workplace options, workforce confidence drifted down this year with confidence in the US reaching pandemic lows this summer. As hiring rebounded in September, so too did confidence with the LinkedIn Workforce Confidence Index inching above pandemic lows. However, overall confidence remains weak as workers adjust to a much slower labor market than they experienced even a year ago and workplace changes that still have not settled in the wake of the pandemic.

For more insights on remote and hybrid work and hiring, check out our Global State of Remote and Hybrid Work reports as well as US Workforce report. LinkedIn’s Workforce Confidence Index tracks workforce confidence along three dimensions: career progress, improving finances, and job opportunities/security. Many thanks to Allie Lewis for Workforce Confidence insights.