Flood situation likely to improve in North East India, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh albeit with a fresh threat of deteriorating again next week.

One-third of Monsoon season is over and the country is rain surplus by 14% till now. About 85% of the total area has recorded normal or excess rainfall and a mere 15% remains deficit. Even the best of the Monsoon season also has a similar distribution. but now the core Monsoons months of July and August hold the key to the final outcome of Kharif crops.

Extended COVID pandemic conditions have ruined the economy and agriculture sector is the only ray of hope to revive and gather gains to support a large section of the population. Riding on the back of policy amendments and favourable Monsoon rains, the agriculture and allied activities are promising growth of 2-3% during the ongoing fiscal year. Impediments caused by the lockdown to the agriculture activities have largely been overcome and a record foodgrain output is estimated this season. The agriculture sector contributes nearly 13% to our GDP and is a force multiplier to provide employment to about half of India’s population. Its uptick performance will surely render solace to the government at a time when jobs have dried up elsewhere.

Government machinery is gearing up to decimate locust’s threat to the Kharif crop in the Northern and western sectors of the country. Between 11th April and 6th July, controlled operations over nearly 2.75 lakh hectares of land spread over Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh were conducted to suppress locusts attack. Apart from this, locusts control operations were carried out in the first week over 6 districts of Rajasthan namely, Jaisalmer, Barmer, Nagaur, Bikaner, Siker and Ajmer. These operations were extended to Jhansi in Uttar Pradesh and Tikamgarh in Madhya Pradesh. This is the 1st time that drones and helicopters are being deployed to protect crops from locusts swarms. One BELL helicopter and four MI17 of IAF have been earmarked for locusts’ spray campaign during the Monsoon season. With a change of Monsoon winds, the locusts' swarms are expected to return to Rajasthan and join with the fresh lot heading for the state flying across Iran and Pakistan.

During this week Monsoon rains are going to be evenly spread out across most parts of the country. Extreme western parts of Rajasthan like Barmer, Jaisalmer, Phalodi, Bikaner and Jodhpur may break the jinx to have a maiden spell of decent Monsoon rains. The flood situation is likely to improve over North East India, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh albeit with a fresh threat of deteriorating again next week.

North India

The monsoon trough will shift back to its normal position and consequently enhance rainfall activity over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi-NCR, west UP and east Rajasthan. West Rajasthan which has generally remained dry so far may get some decent showers in the second half of the week. The state of Uttarakhand is expected to have heavy rains while the rest of the hilly states will observe moderate rainfall.

East & North East India

It is likely to be a wet week for the region but extremely heavy rains are not expected except over Sikkim and sub-Himalayan West Bengal. Gangetic West Bengal will have mild monsoon rains except on the first two days 13th and 14th July. Flood situation looks poised for improvement over Northeast India especially during the second half of the week. Lightning strikes may continue over the region particularly foothills of Bihar, north Bengal and lower Assam.

Central India

The appearance of a cyclonic circulation over Chhattisgarh and east Madhya Pradesh is going to enhance the spread and intensity of rains over central parts particularly in the first half of the week. South Gujarat and Konkan including Mumbai is likely to experience moderate to heavy showers on the first 3 days that between is 13th till 15th July and reduce thereafter. Also, heavy rains are expected over Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra during this week.

Southern Peninsula

Active Monsoon conditions are likely over peninsular India during the first half of the week. Fairly widespread intense rains are likely over Telangana, Rayalaseema and Karnataka. Subdued Monsoon activity is expected during the second half particularly over Kerala and Tamil Nadu. An offshore trough will also remain mild during this period.

Delhi-NCR

The week is going to commence on a tepid note with a few light patchy showers. Thereafter, southward shift of Monsoon trough is going to increase rainfall activity, more intense between 17th and 19th of July. The first half of the week will be a little hot with temperatures in the high 30s and drop substantially to mid-30s in the latter half.

Chennai

Some parts of the city had heavy downpour last week observing record rainfall. Warm and humid conditions are expected throughout this week. Localised light rains and showers lasting for short durations are likely during the first half of the week.