Friday Risk Watch: October 4, 2024

Stay ahead of potential risks and ensure the safety of your employees with Friday Risk Watch, a weekly newsletter curated by our Global Intelligence Team.

Expect updates on emerging risks, geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, etc. We’ll notify you of the latest incidents that could impact your organization, allowing you to make informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.

What We’re Watching

Helene Death Toll Surpasses 200; Transportation Impacts to Linger Through 2025: The full extent of Hurricane Helene’s destruction across the Southeast U.S. is only beginning to be known, and many hardest-hit areas in the Appalachians remain largely cut off from assistance. Officials are still recovering victims while FEMA is warning they may run out of funds should another hurricane strike before the end of the season.

• Helene is the deadliest storm to hit the U.S. mainland since Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and one of the deadliest since 1950. As of this morning, authorities confirmed 215 deaths. While local authorities and residents were aware of the threat, nobody fathomed the level of destruction that ensued. President Biden has deployed 1,000 active-duty troops to assist with response and recovery. Over 6,700 National Guardsmen are also on site.  
• It will likely be months before Helene's economic impact is fully understood. Damage estimates from Moody’s Analytics range from $20 billion to $34 billion, whereas AccuWeather suspects the total could approach $160 billion. Before the storm, Asheville, NC, was seen as a safe haven from the impacts of climate change. However, as reflected in insurance coverage, this assumption was incorrect, with less than 1% of county residents covered for flooding. 
• Transportation and logistics across the Southern Appalachians, particularly Western North Carolina, will be disrupted for much of 2025. The NC Department of Transportation has limited access to Western North Carolina to only those involved in local and hurricane response. Parts of I-40 along the NC-TN state line are destroyed, with a projected reopening for October 2025. As of Thursday, about 400 roads within the state were shut down.  

New Atlantic Storms Steer Clear of the U.S., One Now Targeting Europe: The National Hurricane Center is tracking two named storms in the Atlantic. Neither threatens the U.S. or Caribbean, but Hurricane Kirk’s remnants could impact Western Europe next week.

• Kirk, a major hurricane as of this morning, is located over 1,000 miles northeast of Puerto Rico. A large dip in the jet stream will convincingly turn the storm northeastward this weekend through early next week.  
• Forecast models suggest Kirk will become a post-tropical storm between Wednesday and Thursday, October 9-10. However, it will remain strong, bringing unusually low pressure to Ireland, Southern U.K., Northwest France, and nearby areas.
• Confidence in the details is low this far in advance, but parts of the region will likely be placed under Severe Wind and Rainfall Warnings if more aggressive scenarios verify. Business and transportation disruptions could come to fruition mid to late week. 

Widespread Demonstrations to Mark Anniversary of War in Gaza: Expect large gatherings worldwide this weekend and on Monday, October 7, marking one year since the Israel-Hamas war began. Demonstrations, likely to draw significant crowds in major cities, are calling for an end to the war in Gaza. Israel’s invasion of Lebanon and fatal airstrikes on Beirut will intensify the already charged atmosphere and likely increase turnout.

• In North America, the Palestinian Youth Movement is organizing an “International Day of Action” on Saturday, with protests announced in New York City (Times Square at 2 pm), Washington DC (The White House at 4 pm), Toronto (Yonge-Dundas Square at 2 pm), and other major cities. Additional actions are planned on Monday, October 7, with "Within Our Lifetime" instructing supporters to boycott work and school and gather at several points in Manhattan throughout the afternoon, beginning on Wall St at 1 pm. 
• In the United Kingdom, the Palestine Solidarity Campaign hopes to gather tens of thousands in Central London on Saturday to march from Russell Square to Whitehall at noon. Across Europe, other Saturday demonstrations include Paris (Place de la République at 2 pm), Madrid (Atocha at 6 pm), and Rome (Piramide at 2 pm). 
• Nationwide demonstrations in Israel calling for the release of hostages in Gaza are expected on Saturday, with major actions in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and Caesarea, near Prime Minister Netanyahu's residence. Vigils and commemorative events are also likely on Monday.
• On Sunday, protests primarily driven by pro-Palestine groups will continue worldwide. Expect gatherings in Melbourne (State Library at 12 pm), Sydney (Sydney Town Hall at 1 pm), and Seoul (Youngpoong Building at 2 pm).

Attacks Apparently Targeting Jewish Community Occur in Copenhagen, Stockholm, Tel Aviv:  Earlier this week, Israeli embassies in Denmark and Sweden were the possible target of attacks. Meanwhile, in Tel Aviv, Hamas claimed responsibility for an attack that killed seven. With the first anniversary of Hamas’ assault on Monday and the celebration of the major Jewish holidays of Rosh Hashanah (ending today) and Yom Kippur beginning October 11, authorities are on high alert for incidents targeting the Jewish community.  

• In Copenhagen, authorities arrested three Swedish nationals in connection with two pre-dawn explosions near the Israeli Embassy likely caused by hand grenades. Danish authorities had recently put out a warning of an intensified terrorist threat against Jewish and Israeli sites. The U.S. Embassy has advised constituents to use caution when near them as well.  
• In Sweden, Stockholm police reported that shots were fired at the Israeli Embassy on Tuesday. No injuries were reported, but it comes after similar incidents earlier this year. The U.S. Embassy in Sweden issued an alert advising heightened awareness around the Israeli Embassy.  
• The same day in Tel Aviv, two men entered a rail car and opened fire on passengers, killing seven people and injuring 16. Hamas said that its armed wing, the Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades, was responsible for the attack. It's the second major terror event in Tel Aviv that the group has taken credit for, following a suicide bombing in August that injured one person. At the time, Hamas warned that "martyrdom operations within the occupied territories will resume prominently as long as the occupation's massacres ... persist." 

Rwandan Authorities Work to Contain Outbreak of Marburg Virus: Authorities in Rwanda are working to control the spread of the deadly Marburg virus. At least 11 deaths and 36 cases of the virus have been confirmed in the country, most of which have been identified in healthcare workers. Marburg is a virus similar to Ebola. It can cause a hemorrhagic fever that is fatal for up to 88% of patients.  

• Since declaring the outbreak on September 27, Rwandan authorities have been working to contain the virus by issuing quarantines, limiting funeral attendance sizes, restricting hospital visits, and urging people to work from home. Pharmaceutical companies from the U.S. and Europe are working to develop a vaccine. The World Health Organization (WHO) has given the ethical green light for vaccine and treatment trials, which now await approval from Rwandan authorities. 
• Abroad, two people were pulled off a train in Germany after officials learned that they had traveled to Rwanda and been exposed to patients with the virus. Authorities around the globe have issued travel advisories for Rwanda, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which advised travelers to the country to “practice enhanced precautions.”  
• While authorities are working to contain the virus and identify its source, the CDC has assessed that the risk in the U.S. is low and the virus has not been found outside of Rwanda. Similarly, the WHO states that "the risk of this outbreak is very high at the national level, high at the regional level, and low at the global level.” 

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