From Business-As-Usual to an Emerging Future

The modern world is inundated with a multitude of different management tools, many of which are designed to guide companies through change. According to three academics (Pindur, Rogers, and Kim,1995), elemental approaches to management go back at least 3000 years before the birth of Christ, a time in which records of business dealings were first recorded by Middle Eastern priests. Socrates, around 400 BC, stated that management was a competency distinctly separate from possessing technical skills and knowledge. The Romans, famous for their legions of warriors led by Centurions, provided accountability through the hierarchy of authority.

The Industrial Revolution, a time from the late 1700s through the 1800s, was a period of great upheaval and massive change in the way people lived and worked. In reality, the massive change did not end in the 1800s but is still continuing. Today the upheaval we are experiencing is a product of the Industrial Revolution and there is no greater need for a fresh approach to the collective vision we require to move us from business-as-a-usual to a sustainable and circular future, an emerging future.

What is The Three Horizons Framework?

Is the Three Horizons Framework a management tool in the traditional sense of the term? Three Horizons is a simple and intuitive framework for thinking about the future.  At its simplest, it describes three patterns of activity and how their interactions play out over time.  The framework maps a shift from the established patterns of the first horizon to the emergence of new patterns in the third, via the transition activity of the second.

Recently, I argued that AI technology can be an effective pathway for companies to improve resource management, reduce waste and manage high-value products to services to increase capacity utilisation, activities that circular economy professionals encourage. However, we lack the infrastructure to support circular systems for both consumers and businesses to merge. As many companies are not geared to shift to circular business models and adoption by consumers is slow, significant improvements using AI can still be made. Technological solutions do not appear out of thin air, it all requires the C-suite to drive or embrace change. Enter the Three Horizons Framework.

The Practical Application of The Three Horizons Framework

According to the digital collaboration platform, Miro, the use of the Three Horizons of Growth template is when a company or individual wants to strategically think about their business currently and in the future. The x-axis represents time, but keep in mind that it is not an indication of what a company should be thinking about now vs. later. A company should be thinking about all three horizons at the same time. The C-suite will always want to cycle between where a business is strong now, which opportunities will be successful in the future, and which opportunities to explore further.   

In a radically different example, in South Africa, the ThreeHorizons Framework was used to visualise and plan for different possibilities and interpretations of how the future may unfold and to prioritise actions in the present which may lead to more desirable conditions for Invasive Alien Species (IAS) management. Invasive alien species are one of the five direct drivers of global change in the Anthropocene, with an estimated 20% of Earth’s surface at risk from invasions. Globally, IAS are a key threat to many endangered species and habitats, while also presenting threats to human health, well-being and economies.

Although all visions of the future are subjective and depend on the worldviews of the participants who generate them, such visions can serve as a guide towards ambitious transformation which meets the normative goals of society.

The visioning process used in the Seeds of Good Anthropocene (SOGA) initiative uses a novel scenario-building method which combines two futuring tools: 'Futures Wheels' and 'Three Horizons Frameworks', also called a Manoa Mash-up. The original Manoa method was developed to create divergent thinking and maximise the difference from the present and is based on the use of Futures Wheels. The Manoa Mash-up adds a Three Horizons tool to this process. The SOGA process additionally uses the “seeds” concept as a starting point for generating visions and facilitating discussions about the future. The goal of this process is to stimulate creativity in how participants approach complex issues and move beyond dystopic visions of the future towards collectively creating positive pathways for systemic change.

A criticism of the SOGA approach is that it is sometimes difficult to move directly to action from the Three Horizons tool, as the mechanism for undertaking the transition steps in the second horizon typically requires a number of power shifts among stakeholders. In the workshops in South Africa to tackle IAS, stakeholder groups were initially developed by workshop facilitators and then discussed with the mini-workshop participants to check for relevance. In this final step, the actions under each domain of change were distributed across the different stakeholders, according to the stakeholder group/s who could undertake the action. Actions could be listed under multiple stakeholder groups, or in some cases, identified as an action requiring participation from all stakeholders.

Conclusion

We are fixated on climate change and emission reductions within our current business and economic structure. Companies conduct forecasts and plan for future growth but then get blindsided by some disruptive force. For the last 20 years, these disruptive forces have been from innovative startups such as Uber, AirBnB and Slack. However, disruption is now coming from human activity, such as climate change, resource scarcity and biodiversity loss.

We talk about systems change or systems thinking without really understanding how this will be adopted and implemented by businesses at scale supported by government regulation and policy. And, we must not forget consumers, for without them most businesses would not survive. The Three Horizons Framework may not be perfect but what it does is require participants to actively engage in future visioning. It is becoming increasingly obvious that a fair percentage of businesses will not transition successfully to a brave new sustainable and circular world. Mostly because they do not understand the future and, really, do not care to.

To conclude using Kate Raworth's words, "...(the Three Horizons Framework) is not a prediction, it is in good part an aspiration for the change we want to see happen and believe it is one of the possible futures that can be achieved."

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Ms Adrienna Zsakay is the Founder and CEO of Circular Economy Asia Inc., and this article represents her opinions on the circular economy. Circular World Pick of the Week is brought to you by Circular World™ Media — a brand owned by Circular Economy Asia Inc.

For all the best content, join one of the fastest-growing circular economy groups on LinkedIn - Circular Economy Asia. Visit my website CircularEconomyAsia.org

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References

'The History of Management' published by FHSU Digital Press

'Three Horizons' published by International Futures Forum

'3 Horizons of Growth Template' published by Miro

'Futures for invasive alien species management: using bottom-up innovations to envision positive systemic change' by J. L. van Velden, R. Biggs, T. Hichert, P. Booth, C. Büchner-Marais, K. J. Esler, M. Lewarne, L. J. Potgieter, S. J. Rahlao, A. J. Rebelo, T. B. Robinson, N. J. van Wilgen and D. M. Richardson, published in Sustainability Science, 05 September 2023.