In From the Cold: The Struggle for Russia’s Exiles

Hundreds of thousands of Russians have fled their country since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, seeking freedom and safety abroad. Many of these émigrés remain politically active, assisting Ukrainian refugees, engaging with media projects, and trying to create political change at home – often at significant risk to themselves and their families. Others, however, have elected to go home, finding few prospects in exile, while some have even agreed to work for the Russian security services. This new Russian diaspora presents a diverse and dynamic landscape of both challenge and opportunity for the West, for Ukraine and for Russia itself – but meeting those challenges and seizing those opportunities will require a much more coherent approach than Western policymakers have been able to muster thus far.

Key Conclusions and Recommendations

The new Russian diaspora is socially, politically, economically and geographically diverse. Rather than treating it as a monolith, Western governments should take a bespoke approach to each subgroup.

The Kremlin’s is actively seeking to repatriate émigré IT specialists. Urgent measures are needed to prevent them from becoming a resource for Russia’s war machine.

Russian security services are actively using the diaspora as a tool of industrial espionage and sanctions evasion, while replicating Soviet approaches to suppressing, infiltrating, and coopting Russian émigrés. In response, Western governments should replicate their own Cold War practices and help bring these Russians into the fold.

Throughout the post-Soviet space and beyond, governments are increasingly trying to coerce expatriated Russians into leaving and/or preventing them from entering and reentering in the first place – while many European governments are also creating new barriers for Russian exiles. Those who cannot find a stable home in Europe or elsewhere may be forced to return, with predictable consequences.