From Puglia to the Polls: Western Leaders Scramble to Gain a Domestic Foothold as July Elections are Looming

G7 Leaders’ United Front Shaken by Domestic Instability

A little over a week ago, the leaders of the G7 countries convened in peaceful Puglia. However, the agenda for the summit was anything but peaceful. China has increased its “military exercises” in the Taiwan Strait, Russia continues its advance on Ukraine, and autocracies to the east are strengthening their ties. Adversaries are knocking at the door of Western leaders, but their domestic political situations may hinder their ability to present a united front.

As Italy’s leader, Giorgia Meloni, welcomed the other leaders of the G7 countries, she may have been the only one with a smile on her face. After her party’s progress in the recent EU elections, she was the sole leader among the seven who entered the summit with a measure of domestic political support. President Joe Biden of the United States faces a November election with increasing political and personal criticism from voters. Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are both battling dismal approval ratings. Lastly, Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his party (SPD) scored their worst-ever result in a European Parliament election, winning only 13.9% of the vote.

One thing the above all have in common, is that they do not face elections within the next two weeks. The same cannot be said for France’s President Emmanuel Macron and the United Kingdom’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who both anticipate losing their parliamentary majority. They too are under domestic pressure, and as a result, they have chosen to gamble by calling unexpected snap elections. The outcome of these elections, especially in France, could mean significant change for the G7 alliance, the EU, and NATO.

Elections in the UK are unlikely to bring about a sea change in its foreign and security policy. A consensus has been built around Ukraine, Labour Leader Keir Starmer has spoken in favour of transatlantic ties (regardless of the White House’s occupant), and the only major disputes in the election campaign have focused around the level of UK defence spending.

The situation in France presents a different story. Mr. Macron has been one of the strongest advocates for Ukraine joining NATO and the EU, and he has refused in recent interviews to rule out European "boots on the ground" in Ukraine. Although his stance and commitment to a Ukrainian victory are crystal clear, his influence may wane after July 7th.

Polls currently suggest that Mr. Jordan Bardella from the far-right party Rassemblement National (RN) may become the next Prime Minister of France. While the Prime Minister presides only over domestic matters, a government led by RN would undoubtedly threaten Mr. Macron's political agenda. Meanwhile, as the far-right gains political ground, so does the left-wing alliance. There is a real possibility that France could end up with a hung parliament, with both the far-left and far-right gaining influence. At best, this could lead to a tumultuous period for France and its allies. At worst, it could mean parliamentary deadlock, with significant implications for France’s foreign and security commitments to its allies and alliances.

Future of the Alliance: G7’s Resolve in Upholding Democratic Ideals Amid Turmoil

While the G7 leaders may be weakened domestically, they should not back down from defending Western values. Low approval ratings may be the sign of weak leaders, but they also highlight strong democracies where change comes at the ballot box. Take the recent European Elections; the far-right gained in some states, notably France, but in the next European Parliament all four major political families (including Meloni’s ECR Group) are strongly supportive of Ukraine.

At the G7 summit, the leaders committed to standing with Ukraine by making approximately $50 billion in immobilized Russian foreign assets available to the Ukrainian government. They clearly demonstrated that, despite their current domestic challenges, the G7 remains steadfast in upholding the values upon which their coalition was built.

Authoritarian regimes worldwide are closely watching Europe. Enemies of democracy and freedom are eagerly monitoring how the West responds to recent aggression in Ukraine, Taiwan, and elsewhere. However, despite concerns about a rising tide of populism in the free world, we should not be too pessimistic about the future of the free world. Individually our leaders may be domestically weak but if the G7 teaches us anything, it’s that by working together across the democratic world, we are much stronger.

Written by Clemens Christiansen , Junior Associate, Alliance of Democracies Foundation