From Ukraine to the Caucasus and the Middle East: Geopolitical Instabilities and Disputes on All Sides

Mass protests, state repressions, and armed conflicts reflect paradigm shifts in nations strategically located between different spheres of global influence. Analyzing the events in Tbilisi, Georgia, and their parallels with the Maidan in Kiev, alongside developments in the conflict in Syria, the indirect rivalry between Israel and Iran, and ongoing tensions in Ukraine, provides a comprehensive perspective on the dilemmas faced by nation-states in transition and conflict. These cases illustrate how internal tensions, popular aspirations, and external interests interact, shaping the fate of countries embroiled in struggles for sovereignty and redefining strategic alliances.

Georgia: Civil Resistance and the Battle for National Identity

Georgia occupies a unique geopolitical position in the Caucasus, serving as a meeting point between Europe and Asia. Historically influenced by Russia, the nation is struggling to align its political identity with European values, while facing pressure from a government that prefers a pro-Russian stance. Since the Russian-born oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili assumed indirect political control of the country, Georgia has undergone an illiberal shift under the Georgian Dream (GD) party. This movement has included the introduction of restrictive laws that label internationally funded NGOs as “foreign agents”, in a direct imitation of the Kremlin’s repressive policies.

In recent months, popular discontent has reached critical levels, reflected in massive street protests in Tbilisi. Protesters see the government’s decisions as a direct attack on the country’s aspiration to integrate with the European Union (EU). Statements such as that of young protester Michael Meskhi — “We want Europe, not Russia” — encapsulate the struggle for a redefinition of political identity. This narrative is reinforced by the government’s decision to suspend negotiations with the EU until 2028 and to refuse budget subsidies from the bloc, a move hailed by Vladimir Putin as “courageous”.

Despite the popular mobilization, the opposition faces significant challenges, including the lack of a unified leadership and the effectiveness of the GD’s propaganda machine in rural areas. Still, the wave of protests, which has spread to cities such as Batumi and Kutaisi, demonstrates that political and social tensions in Georgia remain far from resolved. Violent state repression, which has included the use of tear gas, rubber bullets, and mass arrests, is a clear attempt to silence dissenting voices, but it may be deepening social and political polarization.

In addition, Georgia faces a geopolitical dilemma: while the population tends to aspire to Western integration, the government is under pressure to maintain ties with Moscow. The risk of regional destabilization, similar to that which occurred in Ukraine in 2014, looms over the country. The government uses the threat of Russian intervention as a justification for restricting civil liberties, but this has not stopped the growing popular call for change.

Ukraine: National Resilience and Geopolitical Challenges

Ukraine, since the Maidan in 2014, has become a symbol of resistance against Russian expansionism and a battleground for global ideologies. The Maidan revolution was a response to a government rejecting alignment with the European Union in favor of close ties with Russia, triggering massive protests and resulting in the overthrow of then-President Viktor Yanukovych.

This historic moment marked the beginning of a protracted crisis that culminated in Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the war in Donbass. In 2022, Moscow’s full-scale invasion reshaped not only Ukraine’s domestic politics but also the global landscape, putting relations between the West and Russia on a collision course.

Ukraine is currently trying to balance military and diplomatic efforts to restore its territorial integrity while trying to align itself with Euro-Atlantic institutions. Western support has been crucial but insufficient to ensure a quick victory. The US decision to deploy long-range ATACMS missiles illustrates the commitment to Ukraine, but also reveals the limitations imposed by global dynamics. The hesitation to provide unqualified support reflects fears of escalation, while Ukraine insists on the need for more resources to confront a vastly superior enemy.

Domestically, the resilience of the Ukrainian people is matched by efforts to rebuild devastated infrastructure and consolidate a sense of national identity. For many, the war has become a watershed moment, solidifying the idea of an independent, Western-aligned Ukraine. However, challenges remain, including internal corruption, the need for economic reforms, and the reconstruction of a political system capable of dealing with the demands of a society in a constant state of crisis.

Syria: Protracted Conflict and Geopolitical Complexity

The resurgence of armed resistance in Syria, exemplified by the recent rebel offensive in Aleppo, highlights how protracted conflicts can take new forms in contexts of state fragility and declining external support. The civil war, which began in 2011 as part of the Arab Spring, has become an arena for regional and global disputes. Currently, rebel forces, led by a heterogeneous coalition that includes Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), are challenging the territorial dominance of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, exploiting the weakness of its main allies, Russia and Iran.

The rebel takeover of Aleppo not only challenges the regime’s narrative of control, but also threatens to reconfigure the geopolitical balance in Syria. The city, once the country’s economic capital, has symbolic and strategic importance. Its capture by the rebels represents a break in the territorial stalemate that has prevailed since 2016, creating a potential domino effect that could connect regions previously isolated from the opposition.

The continued presence of external actors, including Russia, Iran, the United States and Turkey, further complicates the picture. Syria has become a microcosm of global rivalries, where competing interests are tested on a war-torn stage. Meanwhile, the civilian population faces monumental challenges, from forced displacement to the lack of basic services, underscoring the human cost of power struggles.

Israel and Iran: Protracted Rivalry and Covert Conflict

The relationship between Israel and Iran illustrates the complexity of regional rivalries that unfold in the shadow of geographic and strategic constraints. Despite decades of hostility, a direct, large-scale war between these two powers remains unlikely. Geographical barriers—such as the lack of shared borders and the distance of more than 1,000 km between the countries—combined with logistical and political constraints, make a conventional war virtually unfeasible.

Israel, with its advanced technological and military capabilities, uses surgical strikes to counter Iran’s nuclear ambitions and undermine its regional influence. Attacks on Iranian military installations in Syria and covert operations exemplify this approach. Iran, on the other hand, projects power through proxies such as Hezbollah and Hamas, indirectly challenging Israel and expanding its sphere of influence in the Middle East.

The possibility of escalation remains, especially with Iran’s potential to acquire nuclear weapons. Should this occur, Israel may consider a preemptive strike, dramatically altering the balance of power in the region. Furthermore, global political shifts, such as the arrival of Donald Trump as president of the United States, could trigger unilateral or coordinated actions to contain Iran.

Persistent Tensions and Uncertain Futures

The protests in Tbilisi, the fighting in Aleppo, the Ukrainian resistance, and the ongoing rivalry between Israel and Iran are manifestations of broader tensions in the international system. While escalation into full-scale conflict remains unlikely in many of these scenarios, the inherent volatility of these scenarios demands continued attention. Shifts in global political leadership, regional alliances, and the role of external powers will continue to influence the direction of these events, highlighting the interconnectedness and complexity of the contemporary geopolitical system.

An analysis of these dynamics highlights that the limits to full-blown escalation often lie in geographic, political, and logistical factors. However, the persistence of tensions demonstrates that the contemporary world remains fraught with uncertainty, where the consequences of a crisis can resonate far beyond its immediate borders.