Future Here Now: Pervasive Externalities
Today’s article demonstrate a core reality of our present and future: externalities. In our Industrial Era upbringing (and in neoclassical economics — this book breaks it down nicely), we were taught that the externalities of our transactions didn’t really matter — economically, they were assume to sort of vanish. I tell the story of the externalities of my grandfather’s little paint factory in The Local Economy Revolution Has Arrived. As we learned 30 years later, the externalities of failed paint batches don’t go away on their own.
We know that, of course, but we often don’t act on that reality - we either ignore it, or we pretend we can’t see it. or we tell ourselves that it will be someone else’s problem.
From climate change to work teams, dealing with the externalities of our decisions - past and present - will play a prominent role in the post-Industrial era that is unfolding. It will consume our energy and money and resources, to be sure. But as these articles show, not dealing with them will cause even more problems. And as this articles show us, some of the most pernicious externalities we have to address lie in the work team meeting, and the home.
The risk within our organizations - and our heads
Stowe Boyd’s workfutures newsletter is one of the best out there, and nearly every issue gives you quotes, insights and more that get to the deepest issues facing us at work. Stowe’s most recent newsletter includes a powerful article on the risks — really, the externalities — of the uncertainty, volatility and ambiguity that impacts nearly every aspect of businesses and organizations today
We have already entered the postnormal, where the economics of the late industrial era have turned inside out, where the complexity of interconnected globalism has led to uncertainty of such a degree that it is increasing impossible to find low-risk paths forward, or to even determine if they exist.
The deepest risks may not be in the marketplace or what's happening outside the organization -- the rising inflation curve, the competitors adopting new technologies, the new virus emerging in a South Asian bat -- but instead, in the behaviors baked into organizations so deeply that they can't be spoken of.
The best response to increasing ambiguity is to reevaluate premises that may be invalidated by various scenarios made more likely by shifting risks. This requires unthreading the various kinds of undiscussables:
You think but dare not say. This self-censorship arises when people fear the consequences of speaking about something openly, which is indicative of erratic management who respond to attempts at frank discussion and criticism with harshness. The fix is to change the culture to eliminate the threat of retribution for speaking openly about the undiscussable.
You say but do not mean. Here we have spoken untruths, the mirror image of truths unspoken. Toegel and Barsoux relate the story of a paper company whose leadership embarked on a 'company reinvention' in response to plunging demand due to the rise of the digital world. However, at retreats and protracted meetings the initiative seemed focused only on cost-cutting and greater efficiencies. It was only after several rounds of downsizing that the CEO realized the hypocrisy of this 'reinvention', and responded by turning the problem of reinvention over to a larger, younger, more diverse group with greater experience outside the paper industry, who eventually developed a successful plan to shift into a renewable materials company.
You feel but cannot name. Negative feelings that may not be expressed openly -- like distrust of a manager by team members -- doesn't stop the feelings from being manifested in non-spoken ways. It may be painful, but the solution is to name the issues and work out some truce, and -- as in warfare or counseling -- this may require neutral third parties to mediate.
You do but do not realize. As the authors state, "The deepest undiscussables are collectively held unconscious behaviors. These undiscussables are the most difficult to uncover." These are often caused by anxiety among a group causing avoidance or defensive routines that reduce anxiety in the short-term, but then in the long-term derails learning new behaviors or attacking the root cause of the anxiety.
Heightened uncertainty, risk, and ambiguity are perhaps, as Georgieva said, the defining theme of our time. The first step with uncertainty is to try to gauge it, and once it is quantified, try to identify scenarios that might occur so that responses can be planned and employed when necessary. But the deepest risks may not be in the marketplace or what's happening outside the organization -- the rising inflation curve, the competitors adopting new technologies, the new virus emerging in a South Asian bat -- but instead, in the behaviors baked into organizations so deeply that they can't be spoken of.
Once we harden in our collective thinking, cease to question our core assumptions, and censor those who raise the most undiscussable issues, then we have lost our path through the fog.
[Emphasis mine]
I think I am being haunted by that last sentence.