⏩ The Future Normal: Fast Forward #23

You probably don’t often think about interracial marriage, because as you’ll see below, it’s now universally accepted (at least in the U.S.). This acceptance highlights an interesting truth about The Future Normal – truly successful shifts end up becoming almost invisible.

You could apply the same theory to each of this week’s signals – they are remarkable today, but will soon just be expected.

One secret to unlocking future long-term opportunities? Just ask yourself, “one day, will this story even be news?

Patagonia goes all-in on purpose

🔮 Future Normal // For a reluctant capitalist, Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard has created two of the most iconic purpose-driven events of the past decade (its “Don’t Buy This Jacket” Black Friday campaign being the other). Corporate restructurings don’t usually take over your newsfeed, but it’s not every day that a company’s founder transfers their stake – worth some $3 billion – into a trust to fight climate change. 

💡 So what? // Undoubtedly the implications of this latest move will be studied closely for years to come, but Chouinard is clear that he hopes to “influence a new form of capitalism that doesn’t end up with a few rich people and a bunch of poor people”, something that I’m sure everyone outside the 0.01% would welcome. On this note, while this move (and all the free advertising it generated) will undoubtedly encourage impact-minded shoppers to choose Patagonia, the real impact will be internal. Patagonia already received 9,000 applications for every internship; this will only drive this number even higher. 

Allbirds releases its first alt-leather shoe – the Plant Pacer 

🔮 Future Normal //Allbirds has built its brand on creating some of the most sustainable shoes on the market. It’s new Pacer model is the first to feature an alt-leather upper. Made in partnership with Mirum, a plant-based leather substitute from Natural Fiber Welding, one of the most exciting materials startups out there.

💡 So what? // We won’t continue to raise and slaughter animals for their meat and hides if we have an alternative which requires fewer resources, produces lower emissions and removes any suffering. However, creating a material that is genuinely better than leather in every way is really freaking HARD. 99% of vegan, plant-based leathers require plastic binders or coatings to improve their durability, and so aren’t nearly as sustainable as they claim. Mirum is currently the only alt-leather that is commercially available at scale (Camper, Pangaia, Bellroy are selling Mirum-based retail products), and that is completely plant-based and circular – meaning if it is discarded at the end of its life, it will return to nature with no ill effects. One day, everything will be made this way…

Will Starbucks Odyssey bring Web3 & NFTs to the masses?

🔮 Future Normal // “Leveraging Web3 technology will allow our members to access experiences and ownership that was not possible before. Starbucks Odyssey will transcend the foundational benefits that our Starbucks Rewards members have come to love, and unlock digital, physical and experiential benefits that are uniquely Starbucks”. WTF does this mean?!  

💡 So what? // As you just read, there’s a lot of BS when it comes to Web3 and NFTs. Fortunately for Starbucks’ customers, all that waffle is irrelevant – the key detail of this announcement was that members could use their existing Starbucks Rewards login credentials to purchase ‘limited edition journey stamps’ (NFTs) with a credit card, using actual money rather than crypto. And as they earn more points, they will unlock exclusive real world experiences. Revolutionary, I’m sure you’ll agree. At TrendWatching we had a presentation called New World, Same Humans (which lives on as David Mattin’s excellent newsletter). Starbucks’ loyalty card drove the mass adoption of mobile payments; it may well do the same for NFT. But fundamentally its customers still want the same as before – recognition, rewards and/or discounts. Trends are often boring like that.    

AI stalks influencers in the wild to expose horrors of high-tech surveillance

🔮 Future Normal // Dries Depoorter, a Belgian artist, created a bot that would match photos taken by popular Instagrammers at certain landmarks to video scraped from open CCTV camera feeds. And then laid them side-by-side, showing the exact moment the photos were taken. As TheNextWeb notes, while this bot might not be malicious, it’s a mind-blowing signal of the power of even amateur-level automated surveillance. 

💡 So what? // This is one of those demonstrations that many will shrug off, until it happens to you. At which point, you might start petitioning the government to ‘do something’. Or perhaps you’ll resort to wearing masks, clothes or makeup to fight back against the algorithms. Either way, expect the number and sophistication of these exposés to increase as societies figure out how we want to navigate the line between public anonymity and ubiquitous automated surveillance.    

The rise of interracial marriage — and its approval rating

🔮 Future Normal // There's not a lot to say about this specific statistic, beyond how welcome and reassuring it is – in the U.S., approval of interracial marriage is at its all-time high of 98%, up from a staggering 4% when Gallup first started tracking it in 1958. 

💡 So what? // I’m always fascinated by the question “which of today’s beliefs and behaviors will our children look back on with horror?” Meat eating? Humans driving two ton automobiles? Single use plastic? The design of our social media algorithms? What is commonplace today, that will be unthinkable to the next generation? 

The Future Normal is an exploration of how we will live, work and thrive in the coming decade. But nothing is pre-determined.

We must work to build a cleaner, fairer, better future – so please do share this with anyone you know that can run with these weak signals!

Thanks for reading,

Henry