The future of Venice: AI and cutting-edge research to identify challenges and solutions
Venice and its lagoon are among the most emblematic cases of how the coastal and urban landscapes are expected to drastically transform due to climate change. The city faces significant challenges in protecting its cultural heritage and local communities, and preserving the surrounding semi-lacustral habitat. Risk assessment research in the area plays a crucial role in developing effective adaptation strategies. The CMCC Foundation introduced cutting-edge methodologies and tools to provide decision-makers in the area with a better understanding of local climate change risks and how to manage them.
AI and ML decision tools to assess coastal risks
The situation of the Metropolitan City of Venice is highly complex due to its multi-risk exposure. CMCC researchers developed an innovative decision support tool using Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning to assess the impacts of extreme weather events on the Veneto coastline. The model is a prototype that will enhance climate change risk assessment and facilitate timely decision-making for regional adaptation. The researchers identified total daily precipitation, wind intensity, and maximum sea surface heights as the main drivers of risk associated with climate extremes in this part of the Italian coast. In particular, the municipality of Venice is significantly affected by extreme sea-level events, with the highest number of impacts predicted along the regional coastline intensified by sea-level rise and subsidence. Additionally, strong winds like Bora and Scirocco, contribute to the so-called Acqua Alta, a physical phenomenon that combines effects from high tides, storm surges and seiches, with significant socio-economic impacts.
Coastal erosion and water quality predictions
Machine Learning techniques were also employed in a study by CMCC and the Ca’ Foscari University, in partnership with CMCC, in combination with climate models and satellite imagery to analyse coastal erosion and water quality in the Venice Lagoon. The study integrated machine learning with numerical models to determine the impacts of sea lever rise and atmospheric circulation changes on regional coastal dynamics in different climate scenarios. Once again, results confirm the critical role of sea level rise as driver of extreme weather, determining an increase in the frequency of extreme events. Under the high-emission future scenario RCP 8.5, significant coastal erosion was predicted for the Venetian coastline during the decade 2030-2040, highlighting the need for coordinated and informed efforts for adaptation. Sea water velocity was found to be the most influential factor determining changes in water quality, which is expected to worsen with higher coastal erosion.
Multi-risk mapping to visualize climate risk distribution
Another study by CMCC and Ca’ Foscari University of Venice introduced a multi-risk analysis of climate hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk severity, to identify high-risk locations affected by extreme events for the Metropolitan City of Venice. The maps produced by the research show an overall increase in risks related to drought, pluvial flood and storm surges over a thirty-year period until the 2050 Vulnerable receptors are concentrated in urban and coastal areas, where infrastructure, beaches, wetlands and the primary sector are at higher risk. Maps are another informative tool that can be used by local authorities to prevent and communicate risks associated with climate change extremes, in order to avoid significant socio-economic and environmental impacts.
Forecasting extreme sea level events, the Acqua Alta
Occasional extreme sea level events in the Venice lagoon, locally known as Acqua Alta, are expected to increase due to climate change, posing significant threats to the city’s cultural heritage and causing significant disruptions to local infrastructure and mobility, as well as considerable economic damages. CMCC forecasting systems, Med-MFC Analysis and Forecast Physical system (MedFS), and Adriatic coastal Forecasting System (AdriFS), part of the Copernicus Marine Service, contributed to the real-time monitoring and forecasting of Acqua Alta events in 2019 and 2022. In 2022, the forecasting systems were able to predict peaks in sea levels up to four days in advance. These tools provide crucial information for local risk management to inform the population and implement preventive measures.
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Economic viability of adaptation infrastructure
The Venice mobile system to protect the city from storm surges, known as MoSe (Modulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico or Experimental Electromechanical Module), is the city's main protection from extreme water levels. The costs versus the benefits of its closure for the local residential community and its port activities were analysed in a CMCC study looking at the short and long-term system performan, taking into account different sea level rise projections. The study found that short-term economic benefits exceed building and maintenance costs, as well as economic losses due to navigation hindrance. On the other hand, looking at the longer period, the need for more frequent closures due to sea level rise will significantly impact infrastructure viability, suggesting the need for more integrated adaptation strategies, also considering the ecological impacts of the lagoon closure.
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