GIS and Geospatial 2023 - A Year of Transition

The year 2023 saw both advancements and challenges in the geospatial industry. While the technology sector made headlines with its innovations, the geospatial field seemed to end the year on a quieter note. As the current form of GIS reaches a plateau, new platforms and trends are starting to emerge. Will any of them have a breakthrough moment in 2024?

Here is the first installment in a series of thoughts on the GIS/Geospatial Market.

Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

ESRI, the prominent GIS player, continues to market and sell architecture from the 1990s. Looking ahead to 2024, ESRI's primary focus appears to be on several key areas:

• Requiring users to transition to ArcGIS Pro, which features a Ribbon interface replacing the traditional Desktop.
• Demanding utility users migrate to the new Utility Network Model, a complex model that will consume much time and money to implement and maintain.
• Rapidly expanding the implementation of Enterprise (Server) and Hubs to encompass entire data workflows, with an emphasis on large enterprise customers and their substantial monetary resources.
• Promoting specialized professional services projects such as ArcGIS Urban, Indoors, Business Analyst, and Velocity, as separate teams vie for relevance.
• Adding new niche products to an already bloated product line.
• Modifying user types and cost structures to better optimize revenue generation from enterprise users.

ESRI will present a vision of trends like AI which gained prominence in 2023. However, with the CEO of ESRI nearing 80 years old, they may face challenges in keeping up with evolving technology and a changing workforce. In 2024, ESRI will insist on staff relocation to Redlands or local offices, as remote work encounters significant cultural resistance. In summary, while groundbreaking developments may not be expected, there remains a possibility that ESRI will address long-standing bugs. The bigger question and highest risk factor for ESRI users in 2024 is "What happens to ESRI after Jack?"

ESRI Business Partners - In 2024, companies that placed their long-term success on the ESRI platform will face increasing frustration. With ESRI's growing competition in both services and products, more partners are likely to seek alternatives and reduce their reliance on an aging platform. ESRI's favoritism towards certain partners may contribute to their downfall, as more opportunities arise to form partnerships with companies with transparent processes and policies. Additionally, larger firms in the AEC, utility, and government markets will consider acquiring ESRI Partners during this period.

Hexagon - With deep roots in facility management, asset management, and remote sensing, Hexagon continues developing solutions that combine hardware (sensors, cameras, surveying, etc.) with geospatial technology. These solutions will evolve alongside new technological advancements in physical devices and AI.

Trimble - Trimble’s focus is similar to Hexagon, but currently Trimble straddles the line between partner and competitor to Esri. In 2024, they may break free from the legacy GIS leader and introduce something innovative and fresh.

Mapbox - For geospatial developers, Mapbox remains the top choice for basemaps and rapid map visualization. Their emphasis on Location Intelligence will dominate an already saturated market, and they will surely deeply embrace the AI trend. Their latest slogan, "AI-powered location technology for automakers, mobile app developers, and logistics services," encapsulates their direction. Expect continued buzzwords and trend-setting taglines that ignite excitement in the tech world.

CARTO - Despite being a distant player in the GIS field, CARTO seeks validation by emulating its arch-rival's tactics. With less than 1% market share in GIS, they continue to venture into the Location Intelligence market, which is saturated with vendors. Without a clear vision, CARTO will continue to hover on the periphery of GIS while jumping on the latest bandwagons like LI, data science, and AI. More of the same can be expected as they become a potential acquisition target.

IQGeo - Emerging from the remnants of Smallworld, IQGeo offers a utility-focused solution that caters to the needs of utilities seeking a network and asset management solution. As ESRI solutions struggle to keep up in speed, quality, and mobile offerings, IQGeo's prominence is set to rise. Stay tuned for more exciting developments from IQGeo.

The geospatial industry will continue to see the rise of regional players, particularly in Asia. 

Open Source Geospatial 

The real winner in this landscape of limited innovation, and continued isolation is Open Source. QGIS, in particular, continues to gain popularity and has even secured its first foundational sponsor from Felt. As geospatial analysts seek to expand their toolkits, they are increasingly turning to FOSS4G meetings to connect in person. Concurrently, open-source databases like PostgreSQL/PostGIS are gaining traction for data manipulation, as more GIS users depart from the traditional map-centric paradigm in GIS products for modeling, managing, and sharing geospatial data.

Earth Observation

The Earth Observation sector has undergone significant consolidation and restructuring as it seeks to explore markets beyond defense. We are now witnessing the repercussions of the early split between raster and vector technologies in the geospatial industry. Moving forward to 2024, there will be a greater emphasis on merging tools and solutions that leverage both data types, presenting an exciting opportunity for geospatial professionals, especially with the increased integration of AI.

What to expect in 2024

Will technology giants like Microsoft venture into the GIS market? Could they potentially acquire ESRI? And what about tech powerhouses such as Uber, Amazon, and Apple? Will they intensify their mapping efforts and delve deeper into the geospatial analytics arena?

Or will innovative newcomers bring a fresh perspective to the world of GIS? What does the future hold for forward-thinking database companies aiming to integrate geospatial data seamlessly into data analysis? Will real-time modeling of features across time and space be possible in GIS? Can GIS be done in a database with mapping as a visualization and collaboration tool?

Innovation is driven by markets and cross-cutting applications. So, which markets and uses will be the catalysts for transformative change?

Stay tuned for upcoming posts that will explore these questions, emerging technologies, and noteworthy trends. Thank you for reading, and remember to connect or follow for updates!

PS - Join Geospatial Innovations - a LinkedIn Group that hosts lively discussions on these topics and more!